In the run-up to the 150th Kentucky Derby (G1) on May 4, usracing.com continues with our Derby Top 10 contenders. Rankings will be updated periodically as Derby preps with qualifying points are contested.
The storyline from this past weekend: Timberlake looks like a serious Kentucky Derby (G1) contender, and Forever Young could be the next Japan-based horse to Run for the Roses.
With a powerful stretch run, Timberlake won the $1.25 million Rebel (G2) by two lengths at Oaklawn Park on Saturday (Feb. 24). Earlier, in Saudi Arabia, Forever Young made it 4-for-4 with an amazing last-stride victory over Book’em Danno in the $1.5 million Saudi Derby (G3).
Kentucky Derby Top 10: Timberlake Up to No. 3; Forever Young 10th
Trained by Brad Cox, Timberlake moves up to the No. 3 slot in the latest US Racing Kentucky Derby Top 10; Forever Young, trained by Yoshito Yahagi, makes his first appearance at No. 10.
Locked, who remains No. 1, is set for his 3-year-old debut in the $400,000 Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park, one of four Kentucky Derby preps with qualifying points on Saturday.
In addition to Todd Pletcher-trained Locked, Remsen (G3) winner Dornoch makes his 3-year-old debut for trainer Danny Gargan in the Fountain of Youth, which drew a field of nine.
The Fountain of Youth, the $300,000 Gotham (G3) at Aqueduct, and the $400,000 San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita each offer Derby points on a scale of 50-25-15-10-5 to the first five finishers. The $150,000 John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway Park has a scale of 20-10-6-4-2.
2024 Kentucky Derby Contenders Top 10: Odds and Predictions
Locked
1. Locked (Todd Pletcher, Jose Ortiz)
We’ll find out where we stand on Saturday – finally . Worked 5 furlongs in 1:01.65 on Feb. 24 a Palm Beach Downs. Seven timed works since running third in BC Juvenile on Nov. 3 . Missed the Sam F. Davis on Feb. 10 with a slight fever.
Next start: Fountain of Youth, Gulfstream Park, Saturday.
Kentucky Derby Leader Board Position: No. 12 on Derby points leaderboard (19).
Kentucky Derby Future Odds: 16-1.
2. Sierra Leone (Chad Brown, Tyler Gaffalione)
Came out of Risen Star win in good shape, of 346 3-year-olds nominated to Triple Crown, colt ranks as the most expensive auction purchase at $2.3 million. Owned by Mrs. John Magnier, Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith, Westerberg, Brooke Smith, and Peter Brant.
Next start: Blue Grass, Keeneland, April 6
Kentucky Derby Leader Board Position: No. 2 on Derby points leaderboard (55)
Kentucky Derby Future Odds: 6-1.
3. Timberlake (Brad Cox, Cristian Torres)
A little wandering in the stretch in Rebel was not an issue in a successful 3-year-old debut. Called a ‘big league’ horse by Cox, he proved the trainer correct.
Next start: Arkansas Derby, Oaklawn Park, March 30, or Blue Grass. Keeneland, April 6.
Kentucky Derby Leader Board Position: No. 1 on Derby points leaderboard (66)
Kentucky Derby Future Odds: 15-1.
4. Dornoch (Danny Gargan, Luis Saez)
Working steadily at Palm Meadows over the winter, most recently going 4 furlongs in 47.40 on Feb. 24. Finished second in his first two starts, then broke his maiden by 6 ½ lengths at Keeneland on Oct. 14, and more importantly edged Sierra Leone by a head in the Remsen on Dec. 2. Full brother to 2023 Derby winner Mage, who was fourth in Fountain of Youth.
Next start: Fountain of Youth, Gulfstream Park, Saturday.
Kentucky Derby Leader Board Position: No. 22 on Derby points leaderboard (10)
Kentucky Derby Future Odds: 9-1.
5 . Fierceness (Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez)
Will the champion 2-year-old be able to rebound once again? After a third in the Holy Bull, the colt is back on the work tab, going 4 furlongs in 48.50 at Palm Beach Downs on Feb. 23, the fastest of 27 at the distance.
Next start: Florida Derby, Gulfstream Park, March 30.
Kentucky Derby Leader Board Position: No. 4 on Derby points leaderboard (36)
Kentucky Derby Future Odds:16-1.
6. Track Phantom (Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario)
Just missed holding off Sierra Leone in Risen Star in the slop, but has run well in every start . The son of Quality Road won Gun Runner and Lecomte before Risen Star.
A frontrunner who may not be suited for 1 ¼ mile Derby distance.
Next start: Louisiana Derby, Fair Grounds, March 23.
Kentucky Derby Leader Board Position: No. 3 on Derby points leaderboard (55)
Kentucky Derby Future Odds: Derby future wager odds: 20-1.
7 . Tuscan Sky (Todd Pletcher, Luis Saez)
In just two starts, a sprint win at Aqueduct, and a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimer win over earlier Top 10 entry Nash on Feb. 17, the future seems bright. Yet another Pletcher contender for the two-time Derby winner. Louisiana Derby is possible next start for this contender owned by Spendthrift Farm, purchased for $200,000, Son of Vino Rosso-South Andros, by Sky Mesa.
Next start: TBD
Kentucky Derby Leader Board Position: Derby qualifying points (0)
Kentucky Derby Future Odds: Derby future wager: 31-1.
8. Catching Freedom (Brad Cox, Cristian Torres)
Like Pletcher, Cox has a whole bunch of Derby prospects, and Smarty Jones winner remains among them … A game-closing third in the Risen Star keeps him in the Derby chase. Louisiana Derby is a possible next start.
Next start: TBD
Kentucky Derby Leader Board Position: No.7 on Derby points leaderboard (25)
Kentucky Derby Future Odds: 31-1.
9. Hades (Joe Orseno, Paco Lopez)
Passing on Fountain of Youth, an unbeaten gelding galloped a mile at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 25, covering the distance in 1:47.96, an upset winner over Fierceness in Holy Bull is 3-for-3.
Orseno looking for his second Derby try in a long career – his Thunder Blitz was fourth in 2001.
Next start: Florida Derby, Gulfstream Park, March 30.
Kentucky Derby Leader Board Position: No. 9 on Derby points leaderboard (20)
Kentucky Derby Future Odds: 32-1.
10. Forever Young (Yoshito Yahagi, Ryusei Sakai)
A wild ride ended in a narrow Saudi Derby win over Book’em Danno for unbeaten Japan bred … Ranks second on Japan Road to Derby with a win in Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun in December. Saudi Derby is not a Derby points race, but the trainer looking to UAE Derby next month to clinch another trip to Louisville. Still, the colt could also get in via Japan’s Derby points setup, the trainer scratched Continuar just before the 2023 Derby.
Next start: UAE Derby, Meydan Racecourse, March 30.
Kentucky Derby Future Odds: No. 2 on Japan road to Derby points leaderboard (20)
Kentucky Derby Future Odds: 21-1.
Derby bubble: El Grande O, Mystik Dan, Stronghold
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
