Keeneland Friday: Nakatomi Favored in Phoenix

The final run to the Breeders’ Cup opens Friday with Fall Stars Weekend at Keeneland, featuring three of 11 stakes races through Sunday serving as preps for next month’s 41^st Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar.

First up on the “Win and You’re In’’ (WAYI) list of stakes is the Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix (G2) for sprinters, followed late on Friday’s card with the Jessamine (G2) on turf for 2-year-old fillies, and the Darley Alcibiades (G1) for 2-year-old fillies. Each is a Breeders’ Cup WAYI race, with the Phoenix, Jessamine and Darley Alcibiades winners getting automatic bids in the BC Sprint (G1), Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1), and Juvenile Fillies (G1), respectively.

For those who like to bet horse racing, here are a few handicapping tips for the Phoenix:

Nakatomi seeks a Breeders' Cup berth in Keeneland's Stoll Keenon Ogden Phoenix Stakes on Friday

It’s unlikely the race will produce the winner of the BC Sprint, though you never can tell. The only member of the field to win a Grade 1 is 7-5 morning-line favorite Nakatomi, who earned his first one in his last race, the Alfred G. Vanderbilt at Saratoga.

He stalked a hot pace that day, and those tactics should work against a group loaded with need-to-lead types. Federal Judge, Swirvin and Comedy Town are quick early, and Tyler Gaffalione will try to keep Nakatomi within striking distance before moving at the top of the stretch.

Nakatomi has a clear class edge after running well this past year in three Grade 1 races – the Vanderbilt and third-place efforts in the Dubai Golden Shaheen and 2023 BC Sprint. Here Mi Song is fond of Keeneland (two wins, two seconds in four starts), and likely pacesetter Federal Judge could hang on for third. The others appear overmatched.

The Phoenix for 3-year-olds and up is race 7 with a post time of 4:12 p.m. ET.

The picks: 1 Nakatomi 2 Here Mi Song 3 Federal Judge

The field for the $350,000 Phoenix Stakes (G2), from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, odds:

1 Federal Judge (Flavien Prat, Brad Cox), 3-1

2 Here Mi Song (Edgar Morales, William Stinson), 6-1

3 My Buddy B (Yan Aviles, Kristen Hetrick), 8-1

4 Nakatomi (Tyler Gaffalione, Wesley Ward), 7-5

5 Comedy Town (Drayden Van Dyke, Saffie Joseph, Jr.), 4-1

6 Banjo Chris (Ricardo Santana, Jr., Glenn Wismer), 30-1

7 Swirvin (Luis Saez, Saffie Joseph, Jr.), 20-1

8 Manny Wah (Brian Hernandez, Jr., John Ennis), 15-1

US Racing Team

The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.