By US Racing Team
Another long shot?
Another disqualification?
Is there a Triple Crown winner in the field?
The way the results of the Kentucky Dery (G1) have gone over the past five editions, we know anything can happen. And we mean anything.
Make that six – and this year’s race has yet to be run.
A series of horse deaths over the past week has rocked Churchill Downs and the racing industry. The results as of two days before Saturday’s race include five horse deaths at the track, including one Derby entry (Wild On Ice). Another Derby entry (Practical Move) was withdrawn due to illness, and Saffie Joseph, Jr.-trained Lord Miles was ruled out of the Derby by Kentucky stewards after two other horses trained by Joseph died at the track. Joseph was suspended indefinitely.
With the original Derby field shuffled, three also-eligibles were added: Skinner (20-1), Cyclone Mischief (30-1), and Mandarin Hero (20-1), a third Japan-bred in the race.
Last year, Rich Strike was a last-minute entry and won at 80-1 odds. Maximum Security finished first in the 2019 Derby but was DQ’d for interference in the stretch; Medina Spirit finished first in the 2021 Derby but as DQ’d weeks later after a positive test for a race-day medication overage; and in 2018 Justify began his run through the Triple Crown.
One more item before we look for winners: Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert won’t be around. He is serving a two-year suspension by Churchill Downs due to medication violations, specifically involving Medina Spirit.
So here we go: We’ve asked some of our handicappers at US Racing to select their top three Derby picks -- in order.
Four of five went for a different winner – from likely favorite Forte (3-1 on the morning-line) to stablemate Tapit Trice (5-1) to fan favorite Two Phil’s (12-1) to Derma Sotogake, seeking to become the first Japan-bred to win America’s greatest race.
The 1 ¼ miles is the longest and the 20-horse field the largest any of these 3-year-olds have ever encountered. Forte has been the most consistent, winning 6-of-7, five in a row, and comes in off a strong victory in the Florida Derby (G1).
Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher not only saddles Forte, he’ll have two other live shots in Tapit Trice, the 5-1 second choice, and undefeated Kingsbarns, 12-1. We’re leaning toward the gray Tapit Trice, a son of top sire Tapit, with Luis Saez aboard leaving from 5 post – the winningest post with 10 from 93 attempts.
Angel of Empire, the Arkansas Derby (G1) winner, leads trainer Brad Cox’s foursome – the others are Verifying, Jace’s Road, and Hit Show.
Japan has a strong hand with UAE Derby (G2) winner Derma Sotogake leading the way. Late-entry Mandarin Hero, who won 4-of-5 in Japan and lost by a nose to Practical Move in the Santa Anita Derby (G2), and Continuar are the others.
It’s hard to get past this strong top half of the field to find a winner. Two Phil’s and Skinner seem to be the “wise guy” horses, but these types rarely come through.
Look for the likes of Reincarnate, Kingsbarns, Cyclone Mischief, and maybe Derma Sotogake to be on or near the lead. Forte, Tapit Trice, Hit Show, and Verifying are among the stalkers, and closers include Angel of Empire, Skinner, Sun Thunder, Raise Cain and Continuar.
Harriet ‘Capper: 1. Derma Sotogake 2. Angel Empire 3. Forte
MrWPS 1. Tapit Trice 2. Two Phil’s 3. Angel of Empire
Loose Lips Lenny: 1. Two Phil’s 2. Derma Sotogake 3. Rocket Can
Roll Over Beethoven: 1. Forte 2. Tapit Trice 3. Kingsbarns
Triexfecta: 1. Tapit Trice 2 Kingsbarns 3. Disarm
| PP | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Owner | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hit Show | Franco | Brad H. Cox | West, Gary and Mary | 30-1 |
| 2 | Verifying | Gaffalione | Brad H. Cox | Poulin, Jonathan, Westerberg, Magnier, Mrs. John, Smith, Derrick and Tabor, Michael B. | 15-1 |
| 3 | Two Phil's | Loveberry | Larry Rivelli | Patricia's Hope LLC and Sagan, Phillip | 12-1 |
| 4 | Confidence Game | Graham | J. Keith Desormeaux | Don't Tell My Wife Stables | 20-1 |
| 5 | Tapit Trice | Saez | Todd A. Pletcher | Whisper Hill Farm, LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck) | 5-1 |
| 6 | Kinkngbarns | J. Ortiz | Todd A. Pletcher | Spendthrift Farm LLC | 12-1 |
| 7 | Reincartnate | Velazquez | Tim Yakteen | SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Masterson, Robert E., Stonestreet Stables LLC, Schoenfarber, Jay A., Waves Edge Capital LLC and Donovan, Catherine | 50-1 |
| 8 | Mage | Castellano | Gustavo Delgado | OGMA Investments, LLC, Restrepo, Ramiro, Sterling Racing LLC and CMNWLTH | 15-1 |
| SCR | Skinner | Hernandez | John A. Shirreffs | C R K Stable | SCR |
| SCR | Practical Move | Vazquez | Tim Yakteen | Amestoy, Jr., Pierre Jean, Amestoy, Leslie A. and Beasley, Roger K. | SCR |
| 9 | Disarm | Rosario | Steven M. Asmussen | Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC | 30/1 |
| 10 | Jace's Road | Geroux | Brad H. Cox | West Point Thoroughbreds and Albaugh Family Stables LLC | 15-1 |
| 11 | Sun Thunder | Hernandez Jr | Kenneth G. McPeek | R.T Racing Stable and Cypress Creek Equine | 30-1 |
| 12 | Angel Of Empire | Prat | Brad H. Cox | Albaugh Family Stables LLC | 8-1 |
| 13 | Forte | I. Ortiz JR. | Todd A. Pletcher | Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable | 3-1 |
| 14 | Raise Can | Corrales | Ben Colebrook | Warren, Andrew and Warren, Rania | 15-1 |
| 15 | Derma Sotogake | Lemaire | Hidetaka Otonashi | Hiroyuki Asanuma | 10-1 |
| 16 | Rocket Can | Alvarado | William I. Mott | Frank Fletcher Racing Operations, Inc. | 15-1 |
| SCR | Lord Miles | Lopez | Todd A. Pletcher | Vegso Racing Stable | 30-1 |
| 17 | Continuar | Sakai | Yoshito Yahagi | Lion Race Horse Co. Ltd. | 50-1 |
| 18 | Cyclone Mischief | J. Rosario | D. Romans | Albaugh Family Stables LLC and Castleton Lyons. | 30-1 |
| 19 | Mandarin Hero | Kazushi Kimura | Terunobu Fujita | Hiroaki Arai. | 20-1 |
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
