Since 1952, Gulfstream Park’s marquee event has been a reliable barometer for success in the Kentucky Derby (G1). On Saturday, the 1 1/8-mile Florida Derby (G1) will be run for the 75th time, and history says a strong performance could lead to victory on the first Saturday in May.
Fifteen colts, starting with Needles in 1956, swept both races, including six in this century – Monarchos (2001), Barbaro (2006), Big Brown (2008), Orb (2013), Nyquist (2016), and Always Dreaming (2017). Running second in Florida can work out well, too. Last year’s runner-up, Sovereignty, scored in Louisville, following Mage’s 2023 script.
As always, the 3-year-old pecking order is changing constantly this time of year. With four highly rated colts in the field of nine, the $1 million Florida Derby will shake it up some more. Besides the rematch between Commandment and Chief Wallabee, who ran 1-2, respectively, in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), this intriguing handicapping puzzle includes stakes winners Nearly and The Puma.
The first five finishers receive qualifying points on a sliding scale (100-50-25-15-10), with the winner and runner-up earning spots in the May 2 classic at Churchill Downs.
For those who like to wager on horse racing, here’s a horse-by-horse breakdown from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, and odds.
| # | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | M/L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Albus | T Gaffalione | R Mott | 20/1 | |
| 2 | Chief Wallabee | J Alvarado | W I Mott | 2/1 | |
| 3 | Wayne's Law | M Meneses | A M Sanchez | 15/1 | |
| 4 | Commandment | F Prat | B H Cox | 5/2 | |
| 5 | Redland Rebels | J Rosario | P L Biancone | 15/1 | |
| 6 | Nearly | J R Velazquez | T A Pletcher | 3/1 | |
| 7 | Timeless Victory | J E Morelos | E Plesa, Jr. | 20/1 | |
| 8 | The Puma | J Castellano | G Delgado | 9/2 | |
| 9 | Gregarious | R Maragh | J M Castro | 50/1 |
Last Updated on 03/25/2026
He made a quantum leap in class after dominating a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight in his third start. Probably will go for the lead from the rail, but won’t be a factor when it matters.
Betting verdict: Toss
Lost Fountain of Youth by a neck to more seasoned Commandment. His brilliant second start felt almost like a win to Hall of Famer Mott. “He ran really well against horses that have much more experience,” he said. “I think he showed up.”
Unlike Sovereignty, a stakes winner as a 2-year-old, Chief Wallabee didn’t debut until January. “We’re trying to get going late in the game,” Mott said.
Playing catch-up is never easy. Will Chief Wallabee regress and bounce off a taxing Fountain of Youth? If not, he’s a special animal. But as the 2-1 morning-line favorite, he offers no value.
Betting verdict: Win contender
Mixed signals for colt with strong company lines, so-so speed figures, and a 2-for-3 record at Gulfstream. Set a slow pace in the Sam F. Davis Stakes and held on for a distant second at 48-1 odds behind Renegade, considered a legitimate Derby contender. Finishing third, 2¼ lengths farther back, was The Puma, the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) winner next time out. Victory would be a shock; a competitive effort wouldn’t be.
Betting verdict: Use underneath
Cox’s Mandaloun was awarded the 2021 Kentucky Derby when Medina Spirit was disqualified for a drug violation. He’d like to win one by crossing the finish line first, and Commandment looks like a serious contender.
The midpack runner’s speed figures rose in each of the last three starts, and the distance pedigree is superb. His father, Into Mischief, sired Derby winners Authentic, Mandaloun, and Sovereignty, and his damsire, Orb, also won the Derby. The projected solid pace should flatter his late move. The horse to beat.
(Prat replaces Irad Ortiz, Jr., who chose to ride Renegade for Todd Pletcher in Saturday’s Arkansas Derby. They’re America’s best riders, so not an issue.)
Betting verdict: The pick
The likely early leader was respectable fourth after setting solid fractions in the Tampa Bay Derby. Was fourth in two dirt races and likely to be a pace casualty again. Ran first and second in two tries on turf, which may be where his future lies.
(Redland Rebels also was entered in the Arkansas Derby. If he goes there, the Florida Derby pace may be slower.)
Betting verdict: Toss
One of Pletcher’s many Derby hopefuls, he’s a 3-for-4 stalker (3-for-3 at Gulfstream) with a high cruising speed. “He’s just gotten better and better,” Pletcher said. “Except for his debut, when he was really green, he’s done everything right.”
He used early foot in a 5¾-length runaway over a subpar group in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3). Runner-up Bravaro returned to be fourth in the Fountain of Youth, 11 lengths behind Commandment. Nearly must run career best against the toughest field he’s faced.
Betting verdict: Use underneath
Six-length win going 9 furlongs in a $75,000 optional claimer convinced connections to take a stab in a graded-stakes debut. Speed figures don’t measure up, and he lost in his second race by 9¾ lengths to Nearly.
Betting verdict: Toss
Named for Delgado, who is nicknamed The Puma and trained Mage. Returns in only three weeks after last-to-first surge in Tampa Bay Derby, his first career win in three starts. His five-wide sweep into the stretch and game finish were impressive for such an inexperienced colt.
Like Chief Wallabee, who beat him by 1½ lengths in their debuts Jan. 10, he got a late start.
“He continues to improve,” assistant trainer Gustavo Delgado, Jr. said. “He can go behind horses, between horses, he doesn’t mind. That’s a good thing for a horse, especially when you’re thinking of a race like the Kentucky Derby.”
Can he make another forward move on relatively short rest? Like Nearly, he must peak again against the best horses he’s faced. That’s asking a lot.
Betting verdict: Use underneath
Maiden is being rushed into Grade 1 in her second career race, the biggest class jump there is. Led most of the way at 1 1/8 miles before fading to be a distant second in a solid debut. In way over his head against top-caliber 3-year-olds.
Betting verdict: Toss
Ed McNamara is an award-winning racing writer who has covered the sport since 1981 for The Bergen (N.J.) Record, Newsday, ESPN, Thorocap, and USRacing. He is the author of Cajun Racing: From the Bush Tracks to the Triple Crown and Racing Around the World, and a contributor to The Most Glorious Crown and The Racetracks of America. He has also written for racing publications in France and Italy.
