Grass marathons are Europe's game, and horses from the other side of the Atlantic have won 10 of the last 11 editions of the 1 ½-mile Breeders' Cup Turf (G1). Only Bricks and Mortar, whose victory clinched the 2019 Horse of the Year award, interrupted the Euros’ streak.
Irish genius Aidan O’Brien has trained a record seven Turf winners, but surprisingly he’s had only one in the past nine years. He’s come to Keeneland for the 43rd Breeders' Cup with two solid contenders – the 3-year-old filly Diamond Necklace, who’s 6-for-8 and the 3-1 morning-line favorite, and Irish Derby (G1) hero Benvenuto Cellini (6-1).
Both ran in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1), where Diamond Necklace overcame post 16 to run an impressive third against males. Benvenuto Cellini broke slowly and finished ninth, beaten 4 1/4 lengths. Arc also-rans have done well in the Turf.
Superstar Ryan Moore, O’Brien’s longtime go-to rider, could have picked Diamond Necklace for the Turf but chose to stick with Benvenuto Cellini (post 2).
“We always thought [the Turf] was made for Benvenuto Cellini,” O’Brien said. “He was a bit slow away in France and still ran a very good race. If you go back and look at it, his run is a lot better than you think. We’ve done a good bit of work with him in the starting stalls, so hopefully he’ll get away and have a nice position.”
The Arc wasn’t the first time Benvenuto Cellini had trouble in the gate. He was the 7-4 favorite in the Epsom Derby (G1) but was declared a non-runner after getting his left hind leg tangled in the gate just before the start. He bounced back with an easy win in the Irish Derby, where the turf was much firmer than it was on Arc day, when the Longchamp course was rated as “soft.”
Can he rebound with a big effort on Saturday? Moore and O’Brien are upbeat about his chances.
“We’ve tried to make him quicker and to sharpen him up,” O’Brien said. “We think we’re going to see a sharper horse.”
If you doubt whether Benvenuto Cellini can excel over firmer ground at Keeneland, you have plenty of options. Diamond Necklace, despite drawing the disadvantageous post 12 and being winless at 1½ miles, is the 2-1 favorite among British bookmakers.
Defending champion Ethical Diamond (post 1) is 10-1. He pulled off a 27-1 shocker last year for Willie Mullins, the king of Europe’s jumps trainers. His second-place finish behind Tiffany in Kentucky Downs' Turf Cup (G2) was a good prep as he bids for an encore.
“After winning at Del Mar last year, I was keeping an eye on the American calendar,” Mullins told hrn.com. “We’d been planning to come back to America all year.”
Arc runner-up Bay City Roller drew poorly (post 13, 5-1) but has two wins and three seconds in five tries going 12 furlongs. His performance at Longchamp thrilled trainer George Scott. “What an amazing racehorse he is,” Scott said. Thirteen days later, Bay City Roller ran third behind two of Europe’s top horses, Ombudsman and Calandagan, in the 1¼-mile Champion Stakes (G1) at Newmarket. The outside draw and two-week turnaround are valid reasons for concern.
Other possibilities are course-and-distance winner Burnham Square (8-1, post 6), who is training brilliantly, and the 6-year-old mare Tiffany (10-1, post 10). She’s never been worse than third in 14 grass races (six wins) and has three victories and five seconds at 1½ miles.
Post time for the $5 million Breeders' Cup Turf, race 11, is 5:36 p.m. ET.
1 Ethical Diamond (Dylan Browne McMonagle, Willie Mullins) 10-1
2 Benvenuto Cellini (Ryan Moore, Aidan O'Brien), 6-1
3 Minaret Station (Jose Ortiz, Will Walden), 15-1
4 Far Bridge (John Velazquez, Miguel Clement), 20-1
5 El Cordobes (William Buick, Charlie Appleby), 15-1
6 Burnham Square (Brian Hernandez, Jr., Ian Wilkes), 8-1
7 Hotazhell (Shane Foley, Jessica Harrington), 15-1
8 Test Score (Many Franco, H. Graham Motion), 30-1
9 Johanna Walsh (Mickael Barzalona, Joseph O'Brien), 12-1
10 Tiffany (Luke Morris, Sir Mark Prescott), 10-1
11 Survie (Flavien Prat, George Boughey), 15-1
12 Diamond Necklace (Christophe Soumillon, Aidan O'Brien), 3-1
13 Bay City Roller (Oisin Murphy, G Scott), 5-1
14 Deep Monster (Ton Marquand, Yasutoshi Ikee), 30-1
Also-Eligibles
15 Map of Stars (James Doyle, Francis-Henri Graffard), 20-1
16 Telescopic (Luis Saez, Vicki Oliver), 30-1
Ed McNamara is an award-winning racing writer who has covered the sport since 1981 for The Bergen (N.J.) Record, Newsday, ESPN, Thorocap, and USRacing. He is the author of Cajun Racing: From the Bush Tracks to the Triple Crown and Racing Around the World, and a contributor to The Most Glorious Crown and The Racetracks of America. He has also written for racing publications in France and Italy.
