Winning the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) is a tremendous accomplishment for any 2-year-old colt or gelding.
The horse that captures the Juvenile on Nov. 1 at Del Mar needs talent, class and usually a bit of luck to reach the winner’s circle in the richest divisional race of the season.
Will this year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner break the Juvenile Jinx?
The rewards to the victor are ample, starting with the lucrative purse. In most years, a Juvenile win also clinches an Eclipse Award as division champion.
And then there are the 30 Kentucky Derby (G1) qualifying points for the Juvenile winner, who at once becomes an early favorite for the Derby six months later at Churchill Downs.
A lot can, and does, happen in the interim.
The Road to the 2025 Kentucky Derby begins in earnest with the Juvenile. It can be a rocky road for the Juvenile winner who faces the dreaded “Juvenile Jinx.”
Street Sense, Nyquist pull off Juvenile-Derby double
Since the start of the Breeders’ Cup in 1984, only two Juvenile winners went on to win the Derby: Street Sense in 2007 and Nyquist in 2016.
Running in the Juvenile can build a useful foundation for the Derby. Six eventual Derby winners ran in the Juvenile but only two smelled the roses at Churchill Down.
Even Mine That Bird, one of the most improbable winners in Derby history (2009), had Juvenile experience, finishing last the previous Fall.
What can go wrong between the first weekend in November and the first Saturday in May? Plenty. Anything from an injury, illness or a poor performance can knock a colt off the Triple Crown trail.
A bad trip in the Derby can derail a Juvenile winner, or he might run into stronger, quicker, more mature competitors. The horses in the Juvenile are the precocious runners, the ones who displayed instant flashes of talent to earn spots in the race. Six months later, the picture can change drastically.
Consider this year’s Derby. Fierceness, the 2023 Juvenile winner, hopped at the start as the 3-1 favorite and was forced into a wide trip before finishing 15th.
Mystik Dan, the winner, was a classic late bloomer. He didn’t make his debut until late October, finishing second in a maiden race at Keeneland two weeks before Fierceness captured the Juvenile.
Stamina also plays a role. The Juvenile is 1 1/16 miles; the Derby is 1 1/4 miles. Not every horse is built to handle the added distance.
So young colt, and all your hopeful connections: enjoy the adulation and glory that comes with a Juvenile win. Keep in mind it is a long, hard road ahead to the Derby.
Here is a brief look at Street Sense and Nyquist, the only two horses to pull off the Juvenile-Derby double.
Street Sense served notice of things to come when he romped to 10-length victory in the 2006 Juvenile at Churchill Downs. That emphatic victory clinched the Eclipse Award.
The Derby was his return to Churchill, and he got a patented rail-riding trip from Calvin Borel to rally from 19th, drawing clear at the end by 2 1/4 lengths. The victory broke the Juvenile Jinx and also marked the first time the 2-year-old champion captured the Derby since Spectacular Bid in 1979.
Street Sense gave trainer Carl Nafzger, a former rodeo bull rider, his second Derby win following Unbridled in 1990.
Nyquist, named for hockey player Gustav Nyquist, completed a perfect season at 5-for-5 with his Juvenile victory. He was a generous 4-1 third choice as the bettors were not swayed by his undefeated record.
That was not a mistake the handicappers would repeat.
In the Juvenile, Nyquist took a hard bump at the break which prevented him from zipping to his accustomed spot on the lead. Six wide on the final turn, he took command at the top of the lane and held off Swipe by a half-length.
He was the Eclipse Award winner, and the clear favorite for the 2016 Derby.
The 2-1 choice on Derby Day, Nyquist let Danzig Candy and Gun Runner take turns as the pacesetters until he settled things with a powerful move at the top of the stretch. The win improved his record to 8–0, becoming the eighth unbeaten winner in Derby history.
“This is such a special horse,” winning trainer Doug O’Neill said. “You can see it in his eye on a daily basis.”
Among Juvenile winners who didn’t even run in the Derby are Forte, who was scratched the morning of the race with a minor injury; Shanghai Bobby in 2017 with an injury; Stevie Wonderboy in 2005 with an ankle fracture; and Rhythm in 1989 with a throat issue.
Arazi, who posted a memorable run to victory in the 1989 Juvenile, finished eighth in the 1990 Derby, and Favorite Trick, the 1997 Juvenile winner voted Horse of the Year with an 8-0 record, also ran eighth in the 1998 Derby.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
