Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile: Race Analysis and Betting Trends

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile: Race Analysis and Betting Trends. US Racing, all you need for Every Race, Expert Picks, Official Odds.

The $1 million Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) was run for the first time in 2007 at Monmouth Park, the first year the world championships expanded to a two-day event.

Initially, because of the configuration of Monmouth’s main track and the fact that the track doesn’t regularly offer races at a flat mile over their main track, the Dirt Mile was actually contested at about a mile and 70 yards.

Also, Keeneland doesn’t regularly run races at a mile, so in 2015, 2020, and 2022, the start and finish were moved back to keep the distance as close to a mile as possible. The starting gate was placed 70 yards before the 1-mile pole, and the finish was set at the alternate finish line at the sixteenth pole, making the race slightly longer than a mile.

Goldencents in 2012 and 2013 remains the only repeat winner of the race. So far, no Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile winner has gone on to earn an Eclipse Award in any division. The race was ungraded in 2007 and 2008 and was elevated to Grade 1 status by 2009.

Hall of Famer Jerry Hollendorfer has saddled two winners (Dakota Phone, 2010; Battle of Midway, 2017), and jockeys Rafael Bejarano and Javier Castellano have each been in the irons for two winners.

Check the Time for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf and complete the race card for the “Championship Saturday”:

Race Race Name Post Time ET
1 The Sunrise (Allowance) 1:05pm
2 The Ocean View (Allowance) 1:40pm
3 Goldikova Stakes (G3) 2:15pm
4 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) 3:00pm
5 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1) 3:41pm
6 Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) 4:21pm
7 Breeders' Cup Distaff (G1) 5:01pm
8 Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) 5:41pm
9 Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) 6:25pm
10 Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) 7:05pm
11 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile 7:45pm
12 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1) 8:25pm

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile Top Winners

2007 -- Corinthian. Jockey Kent Desormeaux stalked the pace on a sloppy Monmouth track before exploding clear to win by a record 6 ½ lengths in the inaugural edition at 7-2 odds.

The massive blowout set the tone for the explosive potential of the race, with Corinthian’s burst on off-going ground feeling like a thunderclap -- pure dominance in the mud.

2011 – Caleb’s Posse. From eighth place early, the 20-1 shot unleashed a ferocious rally to win by four lengths at Churchill Downs, outkicking Preakness Stakes winner Shackleford. A gritty closer, the Posse colt started last in a stacked field and swallowed rivals whole in a stretch run that left announcers speechless in a classic rags-to-riches, gritty performance.

2016 – Tamarkuz. The 9-1 United Arab Emirates import surged from 9½ lengths back to win by 3½ lengths at Santa Anita, holding off future Classic winners Gun Runner and Accelerate in one of the deepest fields ever. Tamarkuz dismantled a top-notch field, including champion Runhappy, with a sweeping wide move, turning a potential rout into a feel-good international shocker.

2020 – Knicks Go. The handsome gray set sizzling fractions (:21.98, :44.40, 1:08.25), shook off challengers and powered home by 3½ lengths in a blistering 1:33.85 at Keeneland.

2023 – Cody’s Wish. In a nose thriller at Santa Anita, the 2-1 favorite re-rallied after bumping pacesetter National Treasure (Preakness winner), nabbing victory by a whisker to defend his title. This repeat win clinched Horse of the Year honors and was the fairytale cap to owner Godolphin’s tribute to the little boy Cody Dorman, whom the colt was named after (who passed away soon after).

Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile odds, payouts

  • Average Winning Odds: 7.28-1
  • Longshots: Horses at 10-1 or higher have six wins (33.3% strike rate), while favorites under 3-1 have eight wins (44.4%).
  • Average $2 Win Payout: $16.50. (Range, $6.20 in 2007 to $57.60 in 2024)
  • Average $2 Exacta Payout: $40.73. (Range, $14.60 in 2007 to $104.60 in 2024).
  • Average $2 Trifecta Payout: $143.13 (Range: $45.20 in 2007 to $412.40 in 2024)

Betting Tips for Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

The Dirt Mile’s distance often favors horses with tactical speed or front-running ability, as evidenced by winning times ranging from a track-record 1:33.41 (Albertus Maximus, 2008) to 1:39.06 (Corinthian, 2007), the inaugural running at a slightly longer distance due to venue constraints.

Recent renewals have trended faster, with sub-1:34 times in high-profile wins like Knicks Go (2020, 1:33.85) and City of Light (2018, 1:33.83), suggesting pace scenarios that reward early speed on firm tracks.

Pace Makes Race in Breeders’ Cup Mile

Standout pace performances include Life Is Good’s wire-to-wire dominance in 2021, setting blistering fractions before pulling away, and Knicks Go’s front-running track record in 2020.

Closers have succeeded in contested paces, like Cody’s Wish stalking and pouncing in 2022-2023. Trends show no single prep race dominates, but routes like the Forego Stakes (Saratoga, four winners last time out) and the Kelso Handicap (Belmont, three winners) favor speed profiles. At Del Mar for 2025, expect a speed-biased scenario similar to 2021, where Life Is Good thrived.

Contenders like Nysos (recent 6 furlongs in 1:11.20 work) and 2024 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Mystik Dan (cruising speed on dirt) could set or press the pace. Overall, the race trends toward mid-pack pressers in moderate paces.

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