In the days leading up to the $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) at Del Mar on Nov. 1, the usracing.com team is publishing contender profiles for the 1¼-mile race. Profiles will be updated with post positions and track odds following the gate draw on Oct. 27.
There are few gambles more ill-advised than laying out $2.3 million for a yearling thoroughbred. The chances of getting your money back are minimal. Against all odds, Sierra Leone made it look like the deal of the century.
Not only has the son of hot sire Gun Runner surpassed his auction price by more than $4.7 million, he could also multiply it exponentially as a stallion at Ashford Stud. His final race will be the Classic at the track where he won it last year. An encore would boost his earnings above $10.6 million, about $8.3 million more than he cost at the August 2022 Saratoga sale.
“He's the best I've ever trained, and that says a lot because I've trained some great horses,” said Chad Brown, who's had 14 Eclipse Award champions. “To be a real classic, high-level horse that's having success in some of the toughest races in the world just puts him in another league.”
Sierra Leone never has finished worse than third in 13 starts. About all the deep closer lacks is tactical speed, which puts him at the mercy of the pace and relegated him to second or third in seven of his last nine starts. Hot fractions in last year's Classic -- :44.96 half mile, 1:09.44 for 6 furlongs -- provided a perfect setup for his best-ever performance. He hasn't approached that level as a 4-year-old in a 1-for-4 campaign blotted by losses at odds of 3-10, 2-1 and even money.
You can never underestimate Sierra Leone or be fully confident in a colt who's failed the last five times he's been the betting favorite. Will his career finale be grand or one last near-miss?
If you think the fractions will be quick enough to set up Sierra Leone's late move, bet him to win and on top in exotics. If you think the pace will be moderate, then Sierra Leone might be in “too little, too late” mode and run second or third, as he's done eight times.
