The vista from the viewing stand outside the press box is one-of-a-kind. To the left, you can see the waves of the vast Pacific rolling in. Straight ahead are steep hills with mansions that overlook the backstretch. The Del Mar panorama is so impressive that at first, you overlook the unusually tight turns and abbreviated stretches of the dirt and grass courses.
Del Mar’s one-mile main track has by far the shortest finishing strip in America -- only 919 feet, 315 feet smaller than Churchill Downs and 427 fewer than the Fair Grounds, which has the longest. But don’t assume that gives an insurmountable edge to speed types or severely compromises horses coming from behind.
Often, the past is prologue, and those who ignore history are condemned to repeat it. For horseplayers, that could mean assuming incorrectly that particular horses can’t win at Del Mar and that others can’t lose. I did a little homework for you and hope it broadens your perspective.
This year’s world championships are being held for the fourth time, “Where the Turf Meets the Surf.” If you were watching the 2017, 2021, and 2024 Breeders’ Cup, you saw some winners rallying wide from far back. Horses with early zip and/or tactical speed do have an advantage, as do those who save ground before reaching the stretch.
But they aren’t invincible, which we learn from studying the Equibase charts of those 42 races. It’s a tiny sample, but you may find some of these factoids useful on Oct. 31 and Nov. 1. Here are the descriptions of every Breeders’ Cup winner’s trip at the magnificent hippodrome by the sea:
You may be surprised that no winner of the 6-furlong dirt Sprint, featuring the fastest of the fast, led throughout. A mix of running styles won every race but the Juvenile Fillies Turf, which went to three closers. Now that’s a bit odd, because juvenile fillies aren’t known for their late acceleration. But it happened, and it could happen again.
Handicap the way you always do. Factor in current form, speed and pace figures, post positions, and the likely race flow, and give extra credit to course-and-distance winners. But if you think a closer in an outside gate has no chance, you should think twice. Don’t automatically toss a late runner going 5 furlongs on a narrow grass course with a short stretch. Longshots with those profiles have won Cup races at Del Mar, and this year, a few might do it again.
The only sure thing about playing the horses is that you never can tell. Keep an open mind.
