By The Professor (US Racing Handicapper)
Betting $500 on the #7 Journalism (8-5) in the Belmont Stakes commands everyone's respect as the only colt to contest all three legs of this year's Triple Crown. His gutsy win in the Preakness Stakes (G1) showed not only class but an iron will to win.
He is the legitimate favorite in a solid field, a credit to the tremendous job done by trainer Michael McCarthy. Post position shouldn't be a problem in an eight-horse field.
The only question hanging over Journalism is the rigor of the Triple Crown: three tough races in a five-week span. The ownership group deserves credit for contesting the full series, the kind of sportsmanship too often lacking in the game.
He goes back to the well on short rest. Two-thirds of a Triple Crown would be quite an accomplishment.
. #2 Sovereignty (2-1), the Kentucky Derby (G1) winner, will vie with Journalism for the role of post time favoritism.
While Journalism went on to contest the Preakness Stakes, Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott took Sovereignty back home to Saratoga. That could be the winning edge.
Sovereignty has no excuses here. He's fresh, rested, and ready to roll. His Derby victory shot him to the top of the class. Someone will have to beat him to knock him off that perch.
#6 Baeza (4-1) was an afterthought heading into the Derby, a 13-1 shot breaking from post 19.
When all was said and done, Baeza outran his odds, and a traffic-filled trip, to be a fast finishing third. That brings us to an often overlooked angle by Belmont handicappers who spend considerable time sifting through the "new shooters" making their first Triple Crown appearances in the Belmont.
The best 3-year-olds are in the Kentucky Derby lineup. Baeza, Sovereignty, and Journalism are the only Derby runners in the Belmont field. You don't have to look much further than that.
#6 Rodriguez (6-1) makes a second straight start in New York, having won the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) back in early April.
Trainer Bob Baffert and jockey Mike Smith, a pair of Hall of Famers, team up to give this longshot a puncher's chance. He figures to be the speed of the race, and if he's not too heavily pressured by Crudo, could still be a factor in the lane.
Baffert and Smith both own three Belmont wins, so the veterans might yet have a day to remember.
$50 Win $50 Place: #2 Sovereignty (the bet: $100)
$30 Win $30 Place: #7 Journalism (the bet: $60)
$50 Exacta box: #2 Sovereignty / #7 Journalism (the bet: $100)
$10 Trifecta box: #1 Hill Road/ #2 Sovereignty/ #6 Baeza/ #7 Journalism (the bet: $240)
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
