It’s become a meeting place for 3-year-old turf fillies from the United States, England, and Ireland, and the Euros won three of the last five runnings of the $600,000 Belmont Oaks (G1).
Saturday’s edition of the 1 1/8-mile stakes (post time 4:06 p.m. ET) will be run for the third consecutive year at Saratoga, part of a three-day July 4 festival celebrating America’s 250th birthday.
New York-based trainer Chad Brown has won it six times in 14 tries, and he entered Fitz Right (post 6, 6-1) and Just Aloof (post 1, 8-1) in the field of 10. England’s Charlie Appleby, who took the 2024 Oaks with Cinderella Dream, will run morning-line favorite Abashiri (post 8, 5-2). Ireland’s Donnacha O’Brien, a son of 2021 winning trainer Aidan O’Brien, shipped in Kensington Lane (post 3, 10-1). It's a deep and talented group, with only Carmensita (post 7, 30-1) and Ultimate Love (post 9, 10-1) seemingly overmatched.
It’s a challenging handicapping puzzle and a race anybody could win. Just Aloof was a close-up fourth twice in Grade 2s. Time to Dream (post 2, 12-1) has lost five straight, but her two grass wins came at Saratoga. Faithful Departed (post 4, 5-1) and Storm’s Wake (post 5, 10-1) ran 1-2 in the Regret Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs. Imaginationthelady (post 10, 4-1) is a neck away from having three Grade 2 trophies.
Many of them are strong finishers, though it’s anybody’s guess who will make the early lead. There’s no frontrunner in the bunch, but don’t be surprised if the shrewd Flavien Prat sets the pace on Fitz Right. Brown’s colt, a winner of three in a row, has tactical speed, and I think Prat will make the most of it. He’s stolen many grass races by doling out moderate fractions, which he did on April 10 in the Maker’s Mark Mile (G1) at Keeneland.
Fitz Right’s four turf victories lead the field, and right behind her with three are Faithful Departed, Storm’s Wake, Ultimate Love, and Imaginationthelady. They have to beat the 1-for-3 Abashiri, who dominated her debut last fall on synthetic but is 0-for-2 on grass.
Why is she the favorite? It’s all about company lines. Abashiri has been chasing two of Europe’s best 3-year-old fillies, Group 1 winners Precise and True Love. Abashiri finished fifth, four lengths behind True Love and a length ahead of seventh-place Precise, in the English 1000 Guineas. Abashiri (G1) ran third, beaten by three lengths, in Ireland’s 1000 Guineas behind Precise and True Love. The English Guineas was a key race that produced three Group 1 winners in their next starts.
If Precise or True Love were in this race, they would be heavily favored. So, despite her record, Abashiri fits well with her Oaks rivals, and Appleby is upbeat about the Godolphin homebred’s chances.
“She’s doing well, and her last work went well,” he said. “If she shapes up with the best of her English and Irish Guineas form, I think she’ll be a big player as long as she travels well and settles in there well enough. I’m looking forward to it.”
The other European shipper, Group 3 winner Kensington Lane, ran fifth in the Irish Guineas, 2¾ lengths behind third-place Abashiri. Philip Shelton, racing manager for Medallion Racing, explained why they brought her across the Atlantic.
“We felt like she wants firmer ground and has plenty of positional speed, and we feel like she has a big turn of foot.”
Ed McNamara is an award-winning racing writer who has covered the sport since 1981 for The Bergen (N.J.) Record, Newsday, ESPN, Thorocap, and USRacing. He is the author of Cajun Racing: From the Bush Tracks to the Triple Crown and Racing Around the World, and a contributor to The Most Glorious Crown and The Racetracks of America. He has also written for racing publications in France and Italy.
