Key takeaways:
The Grade 1, $1 million Pennsylvania Derby is the crown jewel of the Parx Racing calendar, and the 2025 edition offers one of the most intriguing three-year-old showdowns of the fall. Set for Saturday, September 20, the 1 1/8-mile dirt race serves as a proving ground for sophomores looking to make a statement before heading into the Breeders’ Cup and older company.
This year’s field of ten features a mix of established graded-stakes performers and improving longshots, with betting markets led by Baeza (2-1), Goal Oriented (5-2), and Gosger (4-1). The race is wide open compared to earlier Triple Crown showdowns: division leaders like Sovereignty and Journalism are absent, leaving the door open for a new star to emerge.
The Pennsylvania Derby has a rich history dating back to 1979. Past winners include 2014 Horse of the Year California Chrome, Kentucky Derby champion Smarty Jones, and Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Bayern. Its placement on the calendar, just weeks before the Breeders’ Cup, makes it a pivotal stop for horses looking to prove their mettle against top company.
With speed, stamina, and pedigree questions spread across this year’s cast, handicappers have plenty to consider. These are the three best bets to win the 2025 Pennsylvania Derby.
Baeza is the morning-line favorite, and for good reason. The John Shirreffs trainee has danced every big dance in 2025, holding his own against the best of his generation. After finishing a game third in both the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes, he proved his consistency once again with a strong effort in the Jim Dandy (G2) at Saratoga, where he chased Sovereignty to the wire.
What makes Baeza appealing here is not only his résumé but also the pace setup. Parx’s long stretch tends to reward horses who can settle and make a sustained run, and Baeza fits that bill perfectly. He is not a need-the-lead type; instead, he can stalk behind dueling frontrunners like Magnitude and So Sandy, then make his move in the final three furlongs.
Pedigree also works in his favor. Baeza carries stamina on both sides, and he has proven he can handle distances beyond nine furlongs. The drop from 1 ¼ miles in the Belmont to 1 1/8 here might even sharpen his kick.
The question for Baeza is not whether he will run his race; it’s whether someone else will step up with a career best. He has been the “almost horse” in big spots, finishing close but not first. Still, with the division’s top names absent, this is his best chance to score a signature Grade 1 victory.
If he avoids traffic and gets a fair pace, Baeza is the most logical winner and a strong single for win bettors and multi-race sequences.
The most serious challenger to Baeza is Goal Oriented, trained by Bob Baffert and ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr. Few trainers have dominated the Pennsylvania Derby like Baffert; he has saddled winners such as Bayern, West Coast, and McKinzie. Goal Oriented may not yet be at that level, but he has the look of a colt rounding into top form at the right time.
After showing flashes of brilliance earlier in the season, Goal Oriented turned heads with a third-place finish in the Haskell Invitational (G1). Though he didn’t win, he showed grit in the stretch, keeping on behind Journalism and Gosger. That effort signaled that he can handle the top company and stay the nine-furlong distance.
His tactical speed is a major asset. Unlike Baeza, who prefers to settle further back, Goal Oriented can sit second or third just off the pace, ready to pounce if the leaders tire. That versatility could make all the difference if the early fractions come up moderate and closers like Baeza have less to chase.
Pedigree questions linger; he is bred more for brilliance than deep stamina, but at 1 1/8 miles, he is not stretching beyond his comfort zone. With Ortiz guiding him, expect a sharp break, a cozy stalking trip, and every chance to strike at the top of the lane.
In terms of betting, Goal Oriented offers slightly better value than Baeza. If you’re looking for a horse with win-threat upside and strong connections, this is your play.
If you’re hunting for value, Gosger is the horse to watch. Trained by Brendan Walsh and ridden by Luis Saez, he has consistently been just below the elite tier but has the credentials to break through here.
This spring, Gosger finished second in both the Preakness Stakes (G1) and the Haskell Invitational (G1), chasing home Journalism each time. Though he couldn’t get past that rival, he proved he belongs in Grade 1 company. With Journalism skipping the Pennsylvania Derby, Gosger suddenly finds himself facing a softer field.
His running style is similar to Baeza’s: settle mid-pack and make one run. However, Gosger tends to travel more prominently, often positioning himself just a few lengths off the lead. That could prove advantageous if Magnitude and the other speed types don’t set a blazing tempo.
The key for Gosger will be timing. Luis Saez is known for aggressive rides, and if he can launch at the right moment, neither too soon nor too late, Gosger has the stamina to sustain his rally and wear down the leaders.
At 4-1, he is a fair price. He may not have Baeza’s consistency or Goal Oriented’s tactical advantage, but his past performances suggest he is overdue for a breakthrough. If the race falls apart late, Gosger is the value play to capitalize.
The 2025 Pennsylvania Derby promises to be a wide-open affair, with no absolute standout and several contenders capable of stepping forward. Bettors should expect pace pressure early, with Magnitude and others gunning for the lead. That scenario sets up well for the stalking and closing styles of Baeza, Goal Oriented, and Gosger.
Together, these three form the most logical core for win bets, exactas, and trifectas. With the Breeders’ Cup looming, the Pennsylvania Derby will not only crown a new Grade 1 winner but also help shape the narrative of the three-year-old division heading into the fall championship season.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
