The Kentucky Derby is the most-watched, most-wagered horse race in the United States — and USRacing is your authoritative destination for 2026 Kentucky Derby odds, contender analysis, and expert picks. Whether you're placing a futures bet months out or looking for live race-day odds, this guide covers everything you need to bet smarter on the Run for the Roses.
The 152nd running of the Kentucky Derby takes place on Saturday, May 2, 2026, at the legendary Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky. Post time is approximately 6:57 PM ET. The total purse stands at $5 million — the richest in Derby history — with $3.1 million awarded to the winner. The race is contested at 1¼ miles (10 furlongs) over dirt by three-year-old Thoroughbreds, with a maximum field of 20 starters determined by the Road to the Kentucky Derby points system.
BUSR offers fixed-odds wagering on the Kentucky Derby — one of the few platforms where you can lock in your price before post time. That means no tote fluctuations: the odds you bet are the odds you get paid. Below, you'll find live odds, in-depth contender breakdowns, prep race analysis, and expert insight to help you find value in the 2026 Derby field.
| Race | 152nd Kentucky Derby — Run for the Roses |
|---|---|
| Date | Saturday, May 2, 2026 |
| Post Time | ~6:57 PM ET |
| Location | Churchill Downs, Louisville, Kentucky |
| Distance | 1¼ Miles (10 Furlongs) |
| Purse | $5,000,000 ($3.1M to winner) |
| Field | 20 Three-Year-Old Thoroughbreds |
| Fixed Odds | Available at BUSR |
The 2026 Kentucky Derby futures market is active and evolving rapidly as the prep season enters its critical March–April phase.
| Horse | Fractional | American |
|---|---|---|
| Paladin | 13/2 | +650 |
| Nearly | 9/1 | +900 |
| Commandment | 9/1 | +900 |
| Chief Wallabee | 11/1 | +1100 |
| Renegade | 12/1 | +1200 |
| Silent Tactic | 12/1 | +1200 |
| Boyd | 16/1 | +1600 |
| Class President | 16/1 | +1600 |
| Blackout Time | 16/1 | +1600 |
| Iron Honor | 20/1 | +2000 |
| Further Ado | 20/1 | +2000 |
| Potente | 20/1 | +2000 |
| The Puma | 20/1 | +2000 |
| Napoleon Solo | 30/1 | +3000 |
| Chip Honcho | 33/1 | +3300 |
| Intrepido | 33/1 | +3300 |
| Golden Tempo | 33/1 | +3300 |
| Canaleto | 33/1 | +3300 |
| Litmus Test | 40/1 | +4000 |
| Buteane | 40/1 | +4000 |
| Pyromancer | 40/1 | +4000 |
| Cannoneer | 40/1 | +4000 |
| Talk To Me Jimmy | 40/1 | +4000 |
| Pavlovian | 40/1 | +4000 |
| Englishman | 40/1 | +4000 |
| So Happy | 40/1 | +4000 |
| Six Speed | 40/1 | +4000 |
| Al Haram | 40/1 | +4000 |
| Brant | 40/1 | +4000 |
| Blacksmith | 50/1 | +5000 |
| Satono Voyage | 50/1 | +5000 |
| Spartacus | 60/1 | +6000 |
| Ewing | 66/1 | +6600 |
| Courting | 66/1 | +6600 |
| Liberty National | 66/1 | +6600 |
| Jackson Hole | 66/1 | +6600 |
| Best Green | 66/1 | +6600 |
| Brotherly Love | 66/1 | +6600 |
| My World | 66/1 | +6600 |
| Desert Gate | 66/1 | +6600 |
| Strategic Risk | 66/1 | +6600 |
| D'code | 66/1 | +6600 |
| Saloom | 66/1 | +6600 |
| Incredibolt | 66/1 | +6600 |
| Universe | 100/1 | +10000 |
| Talkin | 100/1 | +10000 |
| Balboa | 150/1 | +15000 |
Last Updated on 03/16/2026
Kentucky Derby odds begin forming as early as the summer prior, when two-year-old stakes races like the Breeders' Cup Juvenile start revealing class. By January, winter-book odds are posted at major sportsbooks. The biggest movement happens in four critical windows:
Churchill Downs also runs six installments of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW), a pari-mutuel pool where you can bet on individual horses or the "All Other" entry. Pool 5 opened March 13 with Paladin at 5-1. BUSR's fixed-odds format means your return is guaranteed at the time you place your bet — a critical advantage in a volatile market.
The 2026 three-year-old crop is competitive at the top without a dominant, standout favorite. Paladin leads the market, but the gap between him and the next five horses is narrow — which creates real value opportunities across the board. Here is a breakdown of the leading contenders, their trainers, jockeys, and recent prep race performance.
Three-for-three career record. Owned by Coolmore/Westerberg. Won the Remsen (G2) and Risen Star (G2). Pedigree (Gun Runner) suits 1¼ miles. However, trainer Chad Brown is 0-for-9 in Kentucky Derby starts — a significant red flag for serious bettors. Next start: Blue Grass Stakes (G1), April 4, Keeneland.
Brad Cox's top Derby hope. Won the Mucho Macho Man Stakes in January by 6¾ lengths, posting a 91 Beyer. Sits second on the Derby points leaderboard (56 pts). Cox is one of America's top trainers and a legitimate Derby contender conditioner. Wathnan Racing ownership. Breeding: Into Mischief-Sippican Harbor.
Won the Holy Bull in January and has been training well at Payson Park. Owned by Centennial Farm. Breeding: Not This Time-IB Prospecting. Sits fifth on the Derby points leaderboard (50 pts). Mott is a Hall of Fame trainer with proven ability to develop classic-distance horses. Florida Derby or Blue Grass Stakes likely next.
Posted the best Beyer speed figure (100) of any Derby contender in 2026 preps. Mott trains both Chief Wallabee and Nearly, giving the Hall of Famer two live shots at Churchill Downs. The Fountain of Youth runner-up has the raw speed numbers but needs a win in a 100-point qualifier to confirm Derby credentials. Florida Derby target.
Todd Pletcher has more Kentucky Derby starts than any active trainer and has produced two winners (Super Saver 2010, Always Dreaming 2017). Renegade won the Sam F. Davis impressively and is pointed toward the Arkansas Derby (G1, March 28) as his final prep. If he wins there, expect odds to compress sharply.
A $2.4 million purchase by Speedway Stables, Potente won the San Felipe in only his second career start — an extraordinary feat. Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert called him highly talented. Speed figures are developing rapidly. The Santa Anita Derby (G1, April 4) is next. Baffert won the 2025 Derby with a different horse and is a perennial Paladin threat.
Owned by OGMA Investments and co-trainer Ramiro Restrepo — the same connections who won the 2023 Derby with Mage. The Puma broke his maiden just days before the Tampa Bay Derby, then won the race as a longshot. His 89 Beyer is modest but the connections have proven they can bring a horse to peak on Derby day. Florida Derby next.
The morning line is a handicapper's estimate of how the betting public will wager on race day — it is not a probability of winning. Churchill Downs' official morning line odds for the 2026 Kentucky Derby will be released following the post position draw in late April. The morning line is set by the track's official odds-maker and serves as the opening benchmark for the pari-mutuel pools.
Traditional Kentucky Derby wagering operates through a pari-mutuel pool. The track takes a fixed percentage (the 'takeout,' typically 17–20%), and the remaining pool is divided among winning ticket holders. Because the final payout depends on how much money is bet on each horse, odds fluctuate continuously from the moment betting opens until the gates close. A horse that receives heavy late action can shift from 10-1 to 4-1 within minutes.
Fixed-odds betting — offered at BUSR — guarantees your return at the price shown when you place your bet. If Paladin is 5-1 when you bet and drifts to 3-1 by post time, you still collect 5-1. This is a significant advantage for bettors who want to lock in value on a contender early in the prep season before odds compress after a decisive prep race win.
Futures betting on the Kentucky Derby is available year-round at major sportsbooks and through Churchill Downs' official Kentucky Derby Future Wager pools. Six KDFW pools are typically offered between November and April. The KDFW includes an 'All Other 3-Year-Olds' entry — a catch-all for horses not yet prominent enough to be individually listed — which historically produces strong overlays.
The Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifying system awards points to the top five finishers in designated prep races. The 20 horses with the most points — plus horses who win designated international preps — earn a starting spot. Understanding which preps carry the most points and what they tell us about a horse's true ability is essential to finding betting value.
| Date | Race | Track | Pts (1st) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/13/25 | Iroquois Stakes | Churchill Downs | 10 |
| 9/27/25 | Beresford Stakes | Curragh | 10 |
| 9/27/25 | The Royal Lodge Stakes | Newmarket | 10 |
| 10/4/25 | Champagne Stakes | Aqueduct | 10 |
| 10/4/25 | Breeders’ Futurity | Keeneland | 10 |
| 10/4/25 | American Pharoah | Santa Anita | 10 |
| 10/5/25 | Qatar Prix Jean-Luc Lagardère | Longchamp | 10 |
| 10/25/25 | Futurity Trophy Stakes | Doncaster | 10 |
| 10/26/25 | Street Sense Stakes | Churchill Downs | 10 |
| 10/31/25 | Breeders’ Cup Juvenile | Del Mar | 30 |
| 11/29/25 | Kentucky Jockey Club | Churchill Downs | 10 |
| 11/29/25 | Cattleya Stakes | Tokyo | 10 |
| 12/6/25 | Remsen Stakes | Aqueduct | 10 |
| 12/13/25 | Los Alamitos Futurity | Los Alamitos | 10 |
| 12/17/25 | Zen-Nippon Nisai Yushun | Kawasaki | 20 |
| 12/20/25 | Gun Runner Stakes | Fair Grounds | 10 |
| 12/20/25 | Remington Springboard Mile | Remington | 10 |
| 1/3/26 | Jerome Stakes | Aqueduct | 10 |
| 1/3/26 | Smarty Jones Stakes | Oaklawn | 10 |
| 1/17/26 | Lecomte Stakes | Fair Grounds | 20 |
| 1/23/26 | UAE 2000 Guineas | Meydan | 20 |
| 1/31/26 | Holy Bull Stakes | Gulfstream | 10 |
| 2/6/26 | Withers Stakes | Aqueduct | 20 |
| 2/6/26 | Southwest Stakes | Oaklawn | 20 |
| 2/7/26 | Robert B. Lewis Stakes | Santa Anita | 20 |
| 2/7/26 | Sam F. Davis Stakes | Tampa Bay | 20 |
| 2/14/26 | Risen Star Stakes | Fair Grounds | 50 |
| 2/14/26 | Saudi Derby | King Abdulaziz | 30 |
| 2/15/26 | Sunland Derby | Sunland | 20 |
| 2/20/26 | Dubai Road to the Kentucky Derby Stakes | Meydan | 20 |
| 2/21/26 | John Battaglia Memorial | Turfway | 20 |
| 2/22/26 | Hyacinth Stakes | Tokyo | 30 |
| 2/25/26 | Road to the Kentucky Derby Condition Stakes | Kempton | 20 |
| 2/27/26 | Patton Stakes | Dundalk | 20 |
| 2/28/26 | Gotham Stakes | Aqueduct | 50 |
| 2/28/26 | Fountain of Youth Stakes | Gulfstream | 50 |
| 3/1/26 | Rebel Stakes | Oaklawn | 50 |
| 3/7/26 | San Felipe Stakes | Santa Anita | 50 |
| 3/7/26 | Tampa Bay Derby | Tampa Bay | 50 |
| 3/14/26 | Virginia Derby | Colonial Downs | 50 |
| 3/21/26 | Jeff Ruby Steaks | Turfway | 100 |
| 3/21/26 | Louisiana Derby | Fair Grounds | 100 |
| 3/28/26 | Florida Derby | Gulfstream | 100 |
| 3/28/26 | Arkansas Derby | Oaklawn | 100 |
| 3/28/26 | Fukuryu Stakes | Nakayama | 40 |
| 3/28/26 | UAE Derby | Meydan | 100 |
| 4/4/26 | Wood Memorial | Aqueduct | 100 |
| 4/4/26 | Blue Grass | Keeneland | 100 |
| 4/4/26 | Santa Anita Derby | Santa Anita | 100 |
| 4/11/26 | Lexington Stakes | Keeneland | 20 |
Last Updated on 03/05/2026
Run at 1 1/16 miles, the Fountain of Youth awards 35 points to the winner (100 in the 2026 Championship Series structure). It is historically one of the most reliable Derby prep races from Florida, often producing horses that go on to run well in Louisville. In 2026, Chief Wallabee finished second with a 100 Beyer — the highest speed figure posted in any early-season Derby prep. His connections now face a pressure-filled final prep choice: Florida Derby or repeat at Gulfstream.
The Gotham, run at one mile at Aqueduct, is the primary New York-based Derby prep awarding 50 points to the winner in the Championship Series. In 2026, Iron Honor (Chad Brown) won the Feb. 28 running, moving from 122-1 to 25-1 in the futures market. Brown also trains Paladin — giving the stable two legitimate paths to Churchill Downs. The Gotham winner historically faces a challenging prep-to-prep jump to a 100-point qualifier.
The Santa Anita Derby, run at 1 1/8 miles on April 4, is the most prestigious West Coast Derby prep, awarding 100 points to the winner. Bob Baffert — the most decorated trainer in Derby history — typically leans on this race to finalize his Churchill Downs squad. In 2026, both Potente and the previously well-regarded Intrepido are pointing toward Santa Anita. A Baffert horse winning this race at Santa Anita will almost certainly enter Louisville as a top-5 market choice.
The Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, also on April 4, is the most important 'local' prep — run at 1 1/8 miles just a few weeks before the Derby on a track that closely mirrors Churchill Downs' racing surface. Paladin is currently pointing here, and a dominant win would likely install him as an odds-on or near odds-on favorite. The Blue Grass winner has produced multiple Derby victors, most recently Always Dreaming (2017) and Nyquist (2016) who both prepped at similar Kentucky tracks.
USRacing's horse racing analysts have broken down the 2026 field with one goal: finding the best bets at the right price. Here's our current expert assessment of the market as of mid-March 2026, with approximately seven weeks until the first Saturday in May.
| EXPERT VALUE PLAYS — 2026 KENTUCKY DERBY | |
|---|---|
| Paladin (5-1) | The morning-line favorite is a legitimately talented colt with a perfect 3-for-3 record. However, Chad Brown's 0-for-9 Derby record and the fact that Paladin's sire (Gun Runner) failed to win his Derby make this an underlay. Bet to win only if Blue Grass convinces. |
| Canaletto (15-1) | VALUE PLAY. Pedigree screams classic distance — his brother Sandman won the Arkansas Derby, his sire was a G1 winner. Posted a 109 speed figure in Tampa Bay Derby despite finishing third. Likely being underestimated by the public. Florida Derby will clarify his ceiling. |
| Renegade (10-1) | SOLID PLAY. Todd Pletcher's best Derby horse in years. Won the Sam F. Davis convincingly and trainer has two Derby wins. Arkansas Derby on March 28 is a key step — a win there likely moves him to 6-1 or shorter. Current 10-1 represents fair value. |
| The Puma (25-1) | LONGSHOT PLAY. Same connections as 2023 Derby winner Mage. Won Tampa Bay Derby as a maiden in only his third start. Speed figures need to improve, but Delgado/Restrepo/Castellano have proven they can peak a horse on Derby day. $25 on $500 staked = attractive risk/reward. |
| Potente (15-1) | SPECULATIVE VALUE. Won the San Felipe in only his second career start. Baffert-trained horses from the San Felipe have a strong Derby record. Raw ability appears high. High risk given limited race experience, but 15-1 is a fair current price for a Baffert-trained Santa Anita Derby candidate. |
Jockey assignments for the 2026 Derby field will solidify after the final prep races in April. Currently, Juan Hernandez (Potente) and Jose Castellano (The Puma) are confirmed. Irad Ortiz Jr. and Flavien Prat are expected to be on the market for top connections. Historically, jockeys who have ridden a horse in prior preps have a significant advantage at Churchill Downs' long stretch — watch for late switches as a market signal.
As of mid-March 2026, Paladin (Chad Brown) is the 5-1 favorite in Churchill Downs' Future Wager Pool 5. Commandant (6-1) and NearlyChief Wallabee (both 8-1) are the next closest challengers. The market remains wide open with seven weeks until the race and several 100-point qualifying preps still to run.
Traditional Derby wagering is pari-mutuel: all bets on a race go into a communal pool, the track takes its cut (typically 17–20%), and the remainder is divided among winning tickets. Odds represent the ratio of money bet against a horse relative to the total pool. BUSR offers fixed odds, where your payout is locked in at the time you place your bet — regardless of subsequent market movement.
Live futures odds at sportsbooks and via BUSR are updated continuously throughout the prep season and dramatically following major qualifying races. The most significant updates come on the Sunday after each major prep race (typically Saturday). Churchill Downs' official Kentucky Derby Future Wager pools close Sunday evening, with final odds posted the following week.
The Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) is an official pari-mutuel wagering opportunity offered by Churchill Downs across six pools from November through April. Bettors can wager on individual horses or the "All Other 3-Year-Olds" catchall. Pool 5 opened March 13, 2026 with Paladin at 5-1. Fixed-odds alternatives are available at BUSR.
The 2026 Kentucky Derby purse is $5 million. The winner receives $3.1 million, second place earns $1 million, third earns $500,000, fourth earns $250,000, and fifth earns $150,000. The Kentucky Derby has the highest purse of any Triple Crown race.
Yes. BUSR offers fixed-odds betting on the Kentucky Derby, meaning the price you see when you place your bet is the price you get paid regardless of market movement. This is useful for bettors who identify value early in the prep season.
The Kentucky Derby field is capped at 20 horses. Horses qualify through the Road to the Kentucky Derby points system. The top 20 earn their spots.
When is the Kentucky Derby?
The Kentucky Derby is on Saturday, May 2nd, 2026
Where can I bet on the Kentucky Derby?
At BUSR: Odds are Live!
What channel is the Kentucky Derby on?
Watch the Kentucky Derby live on TV with NBC at 5:00 pm EST
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