Whitney Stakes Horse-by-Horse Analysis, Odds, Picks

Except for the Travers Stakes (G1), no Saratoga stakes means more than the $1 million, 1 1/8-mile Whitney Stakes (G1). Like the Midsummer Derby, the Whitney is all about tradition. Among the many Hall of Famers who won it are Kelso, Dr. Fager, Easy Goer, Alydar and War Admiral, and on Saturday it will be run for the 103rd consecutive year. Post time is 6:37 p.m. ET.

Magnitude. Coady Photo.

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It couldn't have attracted a deeper, more talented field, which includes two-time Grade 1 winner Magnitude; last year's Horse of the Year, Sovereignty, and champion filly Nitrogen. Antiquarian, White Abarrio and Baeza also have at least one Grade 1 victory.

It's a Breeders' Cup Challenge "Win and You're In" that will award an automatic bid to the Classic (G1) on Oct. 31 at Keeneland. White Abarrio (2023), Knicks Go (2021), Gun Runner (2017) and Blame (2010) all hit the Whitney-Classic double.

“We are extremely excited about the Whitney and the opportunity it is,” said Steve Asmussen, who trains 9-5 morning-line favorite Magnitude, a winner of four straight graded stakes. “We love how he is going into it.”

It's also an opportunity for Sovereignty to show he hasn't lost his mojo after starting the year by losing the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) and Stephen Foster Stakes (G1), in which he ran a distant third, 5 1/4 lengths behind Magnitude.

Trainer Bill Mott was asked whether Sovereignty has something to prove.

"After two defeats? Yes," he told drf.com. "He's got to perform. The last one was his only race that was questionable, like what the hell happened?

Deep field of Eight Set

For those who like to bet on racing, here's a horse-by-horse analysis from the rail out, with trainer, jockey and morning-line odds in parentheses:

1 Magnitude (Steve Asmussen, Jose Ortiz, 9-5)

He doesn't need the lead, but depending on what Nitrogen does, Ortiz may try to go wire to wire, as he did last time in the Stephen Foster.

Yes, this is a tough group, but Magnitude already has convincingly defeated Forever Young and Sovereignty, who in 2025 were the best dirt horses in the world. 

Magnitude has turned in two 5-furlong bullet workouts at Saratoga, and he's clearly the horse to beat.

Betting verdict: The pick

2 Nitrogen (Mark Casse, John Velazquez, 4-1)

Last year's filly champ makes her debut against males over a main track where she's 3-for-3. Before her career-topper, a 12-length runaway over a weak group in the Ogden Phipps (G1), she had lost four of five. I don't think she classes up against the big boys.

No filly has won the Whitney since undefeated Hall of Famer Personal Ensign did it in 1988.

Betting verdict: Use underneath

3 Antiquarian (Todd Pletcher, Manny Franco, 10-1)

His career highlight was beating Sierra Leone in last year's Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1). Negatives: Lost his last two races by a total of 17 lengths and was up the track in his other three Grade 1s. In over his head.

Betting verdict: Toss

4 Forged Steel (Saffie Joseph Jr., Micah Husbands, 20-1)

Joseph said he'd probably skip the Whitney and run Forged Steel in the ungraded Iselin Stakes on Aug. 15 at Monmouth Park. That would be a wise decision, because this colt probably would be no more than a pace casualty on Saturday.

Betting verdict: Toss

5 White Abarrio (Saffie Joseph Jr., Irad Ortiz Jr., 8-1)

Speed duel between Journalism and Sovereignty gave this 2023 Whitney hero the perfect setup in the Oaklawn Handicap. That was his only win in his last six tries. At age 7 it's hard to consider him a serious contender against Magnitude, who just crushed him by 9 3/4 lengths.

Betting verdict: Toss

6 Sovereignty (Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado, 3-1)

The world beater of 2025 hasn't looked like his old self. He lost ground in the stretch in both starts this year, and the vibe from Mott feels anything but upbeat. He loves the Spa (3-for-4), but this is a very difficult spot to pull off a world-class rebound.

Betting verdict: Use underneath

7 Tiztastic  (Steve Asmussen, Tyler Gaffalione, 30-1)

He's only 2-for-9 on dirt and 0-for-2 at Saratoga after losing his last race by 11 lengths. In way over his head.   

Betting verdict: Toss

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8 Baeza (Bill Mott, Flavien Prat, 7-2)  

He's Exhibit A in proving that bad starts, even in two-turn races, usually keep you out of the winner's circle. He's a classy teaser (two wins in 11 starts, nine in-the-money finishes). Oddly, his victory in a 1-for-8 slump was by 2 1/4 lengths over Magnitude. I can't see that happening again but include him in trifectas.

Betting verdict: Use underneath

The picks: 1 Magnitude 2 Sovereignty 3 Baeza
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