Bet on Belmont Derby at Saratoga, Analysis, Odds, Picks

Bet on Belmont Derby at Saratoga, Analysis, Odds, Picks

Like its sister race, the $600,000 Belmont Oaks (G1), the distance of the $750,000 Belmont Derby (G1) is 1 1/8 miles. Unlike the very contentious Oaks, which will also be run on the grass Saturday at Saratoga, the Belmont Derby (post time 5:20 p.m. ET) has a standout.

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Remember Mamba (7-2) named for Kobe Bryant

That would be Remember Mamba, a 3-year-old colt named for the late NBA great Kobe Bryant. Co-owners Lee and Susan Searing of C R K Stable paid tribute to the Lakers superstar nicknamed “Black Mamba” for his relentless competitive spirit. The horse has it, too.

The son of Kitten’s Joy won his first three races, all on turf, before finishing second in the 1 1/16-mile American Turf (G1) on Derby Day at Churchill Downs. Remember Mamba had everything against him that afternoon, when he had a rough trip after being brushed between horses, leaving the disadvantageous post 11.

Remember Mamba had no chance to win after that start left him last, 7¾ lengths behind, passing the wire the first time. As Kobe always did, he kept battling. Jose Ortiz moved him four wide into the far turn before swooping eight wide entering the stretch. He passed 10 horses to be second, beaten 2¼ lengths.

The American Turf winner, Stark Contrast, is a three-time stakes winner, with his only loss in five grass starts a second behind Irish star Gstaad in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1). Stark Contrast would be odds-on in this spot, so Remember Mamba (post 3, 7-2) is taking a class drop from the Grade 1 stakes in Louisville to this Grade 1.

“It was a difficult post position,” Ortiz said. “I was way out there, and I dropped back further than I wanted to. I lost my chance to win. The winner is really nice. Remember Mamba will improve with distance in the Belmont Derby.”

Remember Mamba team of DeVaux-Ortiz on a winning roll

It’s been a career year for trainer Cherie DeVaux, who swept the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1) with Golden Tempo and won the Woody Stephens Stakes (G1) with the speedy Englishman. Remember Mamba is No. 3 in her barn.

“He shows up every time,” DeVaux said. “He’s very professional and he improves with each race.”

There are no Grade 1 winners in the 10-horse Belmont Derby. Solid closer Bottas (post 2, 10-1) and English shipper Title Role (post 9, 5-1) each own a Grade 2 trophy. Remember Mamba and morning-line favorite West End Kid (post 8, 3-1) both won a Grade 3. Another exacta possibility is trainer Brad Cox’s speedy Touch of Fire, who’s 3-for-4 on turf. Touch of Fire (post 10, 5-1) makes his graded-stakes debut after taking the 1 1/8-mile Audubon Stakes.

Is betting 3-1 West End Kid the right way to go?

West End Kid is quick early and rides a three-race winning streak on turf. Either he or Touch of Fire is the likely pacesetter. England’s Pacific Avenue (post 6, 6-1) has lost four in a row, but he showed a touch of class last time out by finishing third in the Irish 2,000 Guineas (G1) for Godolphin trainer Charlie Appleby.

As for the others:

H. Graham Motion trained the last two Belmont Derby winners, but his Turf Star (post 5, 30-1) isn’t one. Title Role won his graded stakes in Germany, so it’s hard to know where he fits. Blackmail (post 1, 12-1) and Third Coast (post 4, 20-1) have weak speed figures. Tieranogue (post 7, 10-1) is a bit of a mystery in his graded-stakes debut after finishing well for second in the Audubon, his first time on turf.

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The Picks: 1 Remember Mamba, 2 Touch of Fire, 3 Bottas

The field for the $750,000 Belmont Derby (G1), from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, odds:

  1. Blackmail (Javier Castellano, Mark Casse), 12-1
  2. Bottas (Manny Franco, Miguel Clement), 10-1
  3. Remember Mamba (Jose Ortiz, Cherie DeVaux), 7-2
  4. Third Coast (Jose Lezcano, Tom Proctor), 20-1
  5. Turf Star (Dylan Davis, H. Graham Motion), 30-1
  6. Pacific Avenue (William Buick, Charlie Appleby), 6-1
  7. Tiernanogue (Ricardo Santana, Jr., Brendan Walsh), 10-1
  8. West End Kid (Tyler Gaffalione, Will Walden), 3-1
  9. Title Role (John Velazquez, Simon Crisford), 5-1
  10. Touch of Fire (Flavien Prat, Brad Cox), 5-1
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