For the first time, the Kentucky Oaks (G1) will be run under the lights, making the 152ndinstallment of Churchill Downs’ second-biggest event even more special. Post time on May 1, Derby eve, is 8:40 p.m. ET, with live coverage by NBC and Peacock.
Saturday’s Gazelle Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct offers Oaks qualifying points on a sliding scale to the first five finishers (100-50-25-15-10). The top two will earn a spot in the Oaks, where we’ll find out whether they’re ready to become prime-time players.
On paper, the 1 1/8-mile Gazelle’s best runners are 5-2 morning-line favorite Paradise and 7-2 second choice Pashmina. Trainer Brad Cox has won three Oaks, including last year’s with the then-undefeated Good Cheer. The two-time Eclipse Award winner hopes the speedy Paradise will join stablemates Life of Joy and Prom Queen in defense of his title.
“Paradise is doing great, and her last two works have been very good,” Cox said. “She’s given us the confidence that she’ll handle a mile and an eighth. I’m looking forward to getting her around two turns. I think she’s set up for a big effort.”
Pashmina is only 1-for-5, but she’s been chasing Oaks hopefuls Takenbythewind and Bottle of Rouge in ungraded stakes. Paradise has a lot of potential but hasn’t faced opponents of that caliber.
Trainer Rob Atras is hopeful that Pashmina will improve at 1 1/8 miles, the same distance as the Oaks.
“She seems like she has the tactical speed to be a miler,” he said, “but also has the pedigree and the stride to go long.”
For those who like bet racing, here’s a horse-by-horse analysis of the Gazelle. The field from the rail out, with jockey, trainer and odds in parentheses:
Stretches out after dominating twice at a one-turn mile. Led all the way to break her maiden before drawing away after a stalking trip in Busher Stakes. Tactical speed should help Franco work out a ground-saving trip from the rail.
Jumps into stakes after wiring her debut by 6½ lengths going two turns at Tampa Bay Downs. Over the years Brown has done well with this ambitious move, so she deserves respect.
Couldn’t stay with Paradise and settled for uncompetitive second, 2¾ lengths behind, in the Busher. Was runner-up twice at a mile, and pedigree (by Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist out of a mare by Breeders’ Cup Classic hero Awesome Again) says she’ll get the extra furlong.
Won 7-furlong unlisted stakes in her sixth start for rising star Green, a former assistant to Todd Pletcher. Daughter of American Pharoah should like extra ground and may offer value.
Pletcher takes a stab with 0-for-6 maiden who’s been defeated by a combined 48¾ lengths. Impossible to recommend.
Ran what may have been her best race in five tries last out when a troubled third in the Sunland Park Oaks in New Mexico. Lost momentum when steadied at the eighth pole. Ran fourth and third in stakes at Fair Grounds, so she’s been competitive with quality fillies.
Woke up in a big way off the claim by Rice, crushing a 7-furlong optional claimer by 9¾ lengths. Can’t see her handling extra two furlongs in first stakes try.
Pulled a 17-1 upset in New York-bred stakes in first start for Morley. Not fast enough to stay with this field.
Appropriately named maiden without early speed lost her two starts by a combined 20¼ lengths. No chance.
Ed McNamara is an award-winning racing writer who has covered the sport since 1981 for The Bergen (N.J.) Record, Newsday, ESPN, Thorocap, and USRacing. He is the author of Cajun Racing: From the Bush Tracks to the Triple Crown and Racing Around the World, and a contributor to The Most Glorious Crown and The Racetracks of America. He has also written for racing publications in France and Italy.
