Kentucky Oaks Odds: Six Set for Rich Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn Park

Kentucky Oaks Odds: Six Set for Rich Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn Park

The Fantasy Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park, first contested in 1973, is the richest Kentucky Oaks (G1) prep race in the country with its newly elevated $1 million purse and 100-50-25-15-10 qualifying points to the top 5 finishers.

The sophomore filly fixture has long served as a key launching pad for female classic contenders and future champions. Standout winners from the past include Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra, who crushed the Oaks by 20 lengths and then took the Preakness Stakes (G1) in 2009; Swiss Skydiver, the 2020 Preakness winner; 2024 Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna, and more recent standouts like Wet Paint (2023) and Quietside (2025). Some earlier stars, such as Our Mims (1977), Davona Dale (1979), Bold ‘n Determined (1980), Very Subtle (1987), Escena (1996), and Blind Luck (2010), took home the win in this Hot Springs feature.

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Three from Casse, but not the Favorite

A small but talented field of six 3-year-old fillies (including three from dual Hall of Famer trainer Mark Casse) was entered for Friday’s 1 1/16-mile event, led by recent Honeybee Stakes (G3) winner Explora, the even-money favorite. The Blame filly trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert is the clear standout and obvious morning-line favorite. She was an Eclipse Award finalist as champion 2-year-old after a second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) in November, and this year took the Santa Ynez Stakes at her home base of Santa Anita before shipping east to win the Honeybee.

The Pegram, Watson, and Weitman color-bearer owns a good tactical style to stalk or press the pace before delivering a powerful late kick, and Baffert, who is 2-for-2 in the Fantasy, gives her every chance to stay unbeaten in Oaks preps at Oaklawn. Flavien Prat, who was aboard Wet Paint for the win in 2023, will be back in the saddle.

Counting Stars (5-2) is the logical second choice off her strong runner-up effort in the Honeybee. The Honor A.P. filly won the Year’s End Stakes and Astral Spa Stakes earlier during the meet before a disappointing last-place effort in the Martha Washington Stakes two back. Trainer Mark Casse cited a disrupted training schedule caused by a severe winter storm that closed the track for nine days as a likely factor in her poor performance, and back in top form, she then closed from seventh with a strong move to finish just three-quarters of a length behind Explora in the Honeybee. A classic late runner with a solid kick on the Oaklawn strip, she has the tactical versatility and local experience to pounce if the pace heats up. Francisco Arrieta rides.

Gary and Mary West’s Sticker Shock (3-1) makes her stakes debut but arrives in sharp form for top trainer Brad Cox. The Uncle Mo filly is 2-for-3 lifetime and just won a local allowance optional claimer at 1 1/16 miles in tactical fashion, pressing the pace early and holding on gamely to the one-length win as the 1-2 favorite. She carries a ton of upside into this race, and the Cox/Irad Ortiz, Jr. combination makes her dangerous for a mild upset if she continues her progression.

Search Party (6-1) is the “other Casse” here and has already shown to be a stakes quality filly. The daughter of Gun Runner won the Martha Washington by a neck in her stakes debut with a gritty late rally between horses, then finished a respectable fourth in the Honeybee, beaten about 3 ½ lengths. From the inside, she is a game closer/stalker with a ton of heart, and under Cristian Torres, she is a live longshot who can capitalize on any pace meltdown.

Taken by the Wind (15-1) brings early speed but comes off her first career loss in the Honeybee after winning her first three, including last year’s Pocohontas Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs and Silverbulletday Stakes at the Fair Grounds in her 2026 debut. Kenny McPeek, who saddled Thorpedo Anna for the win in this race in 2024, is in charge of this filly’s career and had no excuse for her eighth-place finish at 5-1 in the Honeybee, only calling it a “toss” effort. A return to her aggressive style could see her carve out a share if she shakes loose early under jockey Emmanuel Esquivel.

The final runner trained by Casse is Empath (20-1), and she is the longest shot after being supplemented. The Preservationist filly broke her maiden impressively at Oaklawn on March 14 at 6 furlongs but has never raced around two turns or at this class level. She’ll need a career-best effort from mid-pack or worse, but a top effort from on the engine or behind gives her a chance to surprise for a larger share at a price if the top ones falter.

Post time is 6:54 p.m. ET

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The Picks: 1 Explora, 2 Counting Stars, 3 Sticker Shock

The Field for the $1 million Fantasy Stakes (G2), from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, odds:

#HorseJockeyTrainerM/L
1Search PartyC A TorresM E Casse6/1
2EmpathR A VazquezM E Casse20/1
3Counting StarsF ArrietaM E Casse5/2
4Taken by the WindE EsquivelK G McPeek15/1
5Sticker ShockI Ortiz, Jr.B H Cox3/1
6ExploraF PratB Baffert1/1

Last Updated on 03/24/2026

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