Hardly any horses ever win by 20 lengths, especially 2-year-olds who lost their first two races by a combined 11¾ lengths. But that’s what Further Ado did Oct. 10 in his third start. He proved it was no fluke when he won the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) Nov. 29 at Churchill Downs.
Trainer Brad Cox gave him a break and sent him to Payson Park Training Center. His six workouts in South Florida have impressed Cox, especially a 5-furlong breeze in 1:01 on Feb. 21.
“His works have been phenomenal,” Cox said. “He’s given us a lot of confidence. Since last fall, he’s really put on weight and physically filled out.”
The son of standout sire Gun Runner will make his 3-year-old debut Saturday in the Grade 3, 1 1/16-mile Tampa Bay Derby (post time 5:35 p.m. ET). Despite the layoff of more than three months, Further Ado will be favored to beat eight inexperienced opponents.
The 9-5 morning-line choice is 2-for-2 going 1 1/16 miles and has the field’s lone stakes victory, yet there are caveats. He may not be at his best off the long break, and some of his opponents, particularly second-time starter Canaletto, are eligible to improve.
Besides a $400,000 purse, the race offers Kentucky Derby (G1) qualifying points to the first five finishers on a sliding scale (50-25-15-10-5). A victory would all but guarantee a spot in the Derby starting gate. The only entrants with points are Further Ado (10), The Puma (6), and Talkin (5).
On paper, Further Ado’s main rival appears to be Canaletto, who crushed his debut by eight lengths in a one-turn mile at Gulfstream. His pedigree says he’ll prosper with more distance. He’s by Into Mischief, sire of Derby heroes Sovereignty (2025), Mandaloun (2021, by DQ), and Authentic (2020).
A big fan of Canaletto is race caller Larry Collmus, the voice of the Triple Crown, who has embraced him as his Kentucky Derby horse.
“I’m really happy with Canaletto,” trainer Chad Brown said, “and I think I’ll have all of his weight on him and be ready to go.”
For those who like to bet on racing, here’s a horse-by-horse analysis from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, and odds:
Ran first and second on grass after a distant fourth on dirt in his debut following a slow start. Showed speed on turf and could go for the lead from the rail.
Impressive debut winner at 7 furlongs (Further Ado was third). Distant second next time in mile Champagne (G1). Throw out ninth-place dud in last, when he was wide on both turns after being marooned in post 11 in the 1 1/8-mile Remsen (G2). That day at Aqueduct he chased Paladin, the current Derby favorite. Expect improvement against a lesser field.
Distant second last out to subsequent Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) winner Commandment but lost by a total of 16¾ lengths in two stakes. Tactical speed, likely pace casualty.
Intriguing longshot had two sharp, half-mile breezes after a dominant win stalking in his 7-furlong debut. Only horse in the field with a win at Tampa Bay Downs could inflate exotics for hot trainer Beckman.
Pletcher is loaded with Derby prospects, Nearly, Renegade, and Class President, all stakes winners this winter. Is this guy another one? Strong second in his debut at Tampa encouraged Todd to take a shot in his second start.
Further Ado is a deserving favorite, and Cox is excellent off extended layoffs. He’s the most logical winner, but who has he defeated? Universe, runner-up in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), is 0-for-5 in stakes, and the third-place finisher, Soldier N Diplomat, is 0-for-4 in stakes. Superstar connections often are overbet, and he could be an underlay for Irad and Brad.
Transferred from Cox to Walsh after a 10th-place dud in the Lecomte Stakes (G3). Walsh has been on a roll since the summer, but he’s up against it in this spot.
Maiden (0-for-2) posted solid speed numbers when second and third behind Derby hopefuls Chief Wallabee and Renegade. Will win races but not this one.
His spectacular debut potentially strengthened Brown’s chances for his first Derby win. He already looked tough with top-rated Paladin and Iron Honor. This colt, named for an 18th century Italian artist, made his 7-5 odds look like a steal. Third-place Autobahn, beaten 11¾ lengths, came back to break his maiden by 5¾. Count on pathfinder Prat to work out a good trip, but insist on win odds close to the 5-2 morning line.
Ed McNamara is an award-winning racing writer who has covered the sport since 1981 for The Bergen (N.J.) Record, Newsday, ESPN, Thorocap, and USRacing. He is the author of Cajun Racing: From the Bush Tracks to the Triple Crown and Racing Around the World, and a contributor to The Most Glorious Crown and The Racetracks of America. He has also written for racing publications in France and Italy.
