The Grade 3 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct Racetrack often serves as a deceptive crossroad on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. Contested at a one-turn mile, this race attracts high-speed sprinters and middle-distance specialists who benefit from the long, sweeping turn and the lack of a "short" stretch typical of two-turn configurations. For serious handicappers, the challenge lies in separating the legitimate classic contenders from the "milers" who will inevitably hit a wall at Churchill Downs. As you examine the current 2026 Kentucky Derby Odds, you must decide if horses like Balboa and Crown the Buckeye represent true value or high-risk traps for the 1.25-mile classic distance.
Aqueduct’s one-turn mile creates a unique physiological demand that differs significantly from the 10-furlong test in Kentucky. In the Gotham Stakes, horses often maintain a high cruising speed without the tactical breather that a two-turn race provides. This "flat mile" allows horses with sprint-heavy pedigrees to carry their speed further than they would in a standard route. When you look at 2026 Kentucky Derby betting trends, you must remember that many Gotham winners throughout history (such as Hansen or Stay Thirsty) either thrived as milers or needed significant tactical adjustments to handle the extra two furlongs in May. We analyze the current crop through this lens of stamina versus pure velocity.
Balboa enters the Gotham with a resume that demands respect but also invites skepticism. Trained by Brittany Russell, this son of Not This Time has already tasted the Aqueduct dirt in high-stakes situations. He finished a commendable third in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes behind the current divisional leader, Paladin. However, his subsequent second-place finish in the Jerome Stakes raised eyebrows among the 2026 Kentucky Derby contenders. In that race, Balboa tracked the pace and took a clear lead at the stretch call, only to see My World reel him in during the final sixteenth of a mile.
While Balboa’s sire, Not This Time, produces versatile runners, his dam, Tap of War (by War Front), suggests a lean toward middle-distance speed rather than marathon stamina. The fact that Balboa "shortened his stride" in the Jerome suggests that eight furlongs might already push the limits of his optimal efficiency. If you plan to bet on Kentucky Derby online, you must weigh his consistent Beyer Speed Figures against his tendency to "flatten out" when the real running begins. Balboa likely finds the one-turn Gotham to his liking, but he may lack the lung capacity to conquer the 10 furlongs of the first Saturday in May.
Crown the Buckeye represents one of the most intriguing speed profiles in the current Kentucky Derby prep races. An Ohio-bred son of Yaupon, this colt possesses blistering early foot. His owners paid $250,000 for him specifically because he looked like a "stamp of Yaupon," a Grade 1-winning sprinter. Trainer Mike Maker has tested this colt’s mettle at two turns in the Gun Runner Stakes and the Lecomte Stakes, with mixed results. While he held on for a brave third in the Gun Runner, he faded to a distant eighth in the Lecomte after setting a contested pace.
The move back to a one-turn mile in the Gotham is a strategic admission by the Maker barn. By cutting back in distance, Crown the Buckeye can utilize his natural 10-second-flat breeze speed without the immediate pressure of navigating two turns. This makes him a dangerous threat to win at Aqueduct, but a questionable addition to your long-term 2026 Kentucky Derby betting strategy. His sire, Yaupon, never won beyond seven furlongs, and Crown the Buckeye’s physical build mirrors that of a specialist. He may accumulate enough points to appear on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard, but his presence in the Derby gate would likely serve only to sharpen the early pace for the closers.
To understand the quality of the "milers," we must look at the Gotham favorite, Iron Honor. Trained by Chad Brown, this Nyquist colt earned a massive 99 Brisnet Speed Rating in his debut. Unlike Balboa or Crown the Buckeye, Iron Honor’s pedigree suggests he will actually improve as the distances increase. Nyquist won the Derby himself, and Iron Honor’s frame suggests a horse built for the classic distances. If Iron Honor defeats the speedsters in the Gotham, it confirms his status as a top-tier threat. If the one-turn specialists like Balboa outkick him, it tells us more about the track surface and the race shape than the true Derby potential of the field.
The Gotham often turns into a "track meet" because of the presence of multiple sprinters stretching out. With horses like Dirty Rich and Exhibition Only also likely to gun for the lead, the early fractions should be fast. This environment favors a horse who can sit just off the lead and pounce. Balboa has shown this tactical versatility, which makes him a strong play for the Gotham win. However, when evaluating 2026 Kentucky Derby Odds, a win in a fast-paced Gotham can sometimes inflate a horse's price artificially. Wise bettors look for the horse that finishes strongly, while the pure speedsters are gasping for air.
History warns us about the "Gotham Trap." Since the race moved to a one-turn configuration, very few winners have successfully translated that form to the winner's circle at Churchill Downs. The 50 qualifying points awarded to the winner virtually guarantee a spot in the starting gate, but they do not guarantee a competitive performance. When you analyze the 2026 Kentucky Derby betting markets, look for horses who use the Gotham as a fitness builder rather than a career peak. If Crown the Buckeye wins by five lengths on the lead, his odds will plummet, but his chance of winning at 1.25 miles remains statistically low based on his sire's influence.
A "true" Derby threat in a race like the Gotham is often the horse that finishes second or third while making up ground late. In 2026, keep a close eye on runners who are "running on" through the wire. If Balboa manages to hold his position better than he did in the Jerome, he might prove the doubters wrong. If he wins, his connections will undoubtedly look toward the Wood Memorial as a final test. For now, we view him as a high-quality miler who provides excellent value in exotic bets but remains a "fade" for the Derby's final quarter-mile.
The 2026 Gotham Stakes offers a prime opportunity to capitalize on the public's obsession with winning streaks. While the allure of 50 points on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard is strong, smart money distinguishes between a horse winning a race and a horse proving a distance. Crown the Buckeye will likely dazzle with his early fractions, and Balboa will show his professional class, but their 2026 Kentucky Derby betting odds should be approached with extreme caution. Focus your Gotham wagers on the immediate race, but keep your Derby futures focused on the horses built for the long haul.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
