The $20 million Saudi Cup at King Abdulaziz Racecourse isn’t just a global showcase. It’s a betting puzzle. And this year, the market is clear: Forever Young is the horse to beat.
The question is whether 7-5 is a fair price in a 14-horse international field.
Japanese champion Forever Young breaks from Gate 6 as the 7-5 favorite, trained by Yoshito Yahagi and ridden by Ryusei Sakai.
From a betting standpoint, 7-5 means you are paying for proven class. That price implies he needs to win roughly 42 percent of the time just to justify the number long term.
And the résumé supports the confidence.
He won the Breeders' Cup Classic, finished nose-to-nose in the Kentucky Derby, and has already proven himself on the international stage with wins in the Saudi Derby and UAE Derby. He handles dirt, he handles travel, and he handles pressure.
Gate 6 is ideal. He avoids the rail traffic and the extreme outside. Tactically, nothing needs to change.
But here’s the betting reality. In a $20 million race with 13 rivals, 7-5 is not generous. It is a short price in a race that can turn chaotic quickly.
You are betting on execution, not upside.
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert sends out Nysos from Gate 12 at 4-1 with Flavien Prat aboard.
At 4-1, the risk-to-reward equation changes. You only need him to win about 20 percent of the time to justify the bet.
Nysos is coming off a nose victory over stablemate Nevada Beach and previously captured the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile. He has shown tactical speed and finishing strength, and from the outside draw he should have a clean run without early traffic.
The wide gate scares casual bettors. Professionals see optionality. If he breaks sharply, he controls his trip.
At 4-1, he represents the most logical alternative win play.
Also from the Baffert barn, Nevada Beach breaks from Gate 7 at 5-1 with Irad Ortiz Jr.
This is not just an underneath horse. At 5-1, he is a legitimate win threat. He has proven stamina at the distance and was narrowly beaten by Nysos in his last start.
If the pace is honest and the leaders soften each other up, Nevada Beach is perfectly positioned to capitalize.
He fits cleanly into both win tickets and exotic structures.
Trained by Brad Cox, Bishops Bay enters at 6-1 from Gate 9 with Junior Alvarado.
He is chasing a fifth consecutive victory, including the Cigar Mile, and comes in sharp. At 6-1, you are getting a horse in peak form without the favorite’s tax attached.
He may not have the same global résumé as Forever Young, but from a pure betting standpoint, 6-1 on current form is attractive.
He is a must-use in exactas and trifectas and defensible as a standalone win bet for players seeking value.
Japan’s Sunrise Zipangu drew the rail and sits at 40-1.
The inside post at 1800 meters on dirt can be tricky, but at 40-1, you are not betting on probability. You are betting on volatility.
He has shown competitiveness at high levels, including a strong effort in the Arima Kinen on turf and prior success at this distance on dirt. If the rail holds and he breaks cleanly, he could outrun the number.
Not a primary win play, but absolutely usable in deeper trifectas and superfectas.
Conservative approach:
Balanced approach:
Aggressive value approach:
Forever Young deserves to be the favorite. The draw is favorable. The résumé is elite. The connections are world-class.
But at 7-5 in a 14-horse international championship?
You are paying for reliability in a race where uncertainty is the only guarantee.
If you believe class prevails, the favorite is logical. If you believe price matters more than reputation, Nysos at 4-1 and Bishops Bay at 6-1 offer the sharper betting angles.
In the Saudi Cup, picking the best horse is only half the job.
Getting the right number is the other half.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
