Bet on Remsen Stakes: Paladin 3-1 Favorite, Odds, Analysis, Picks

Bet on Remsen Stakes: Paladin 3-1 Favorite, Odds, Analysis, Picks

New York’s road to the Kentucky Derby (G1) continues at Aqueduct on Saturday with the $250,000 Remsen Stakes (G2), the second of six Kentucky Derby points-qualifying races at the track in its final year of existence.

With the expected reopening of a modernized Belmont Park next fall, the 131-year-old Big A will be no more. But there’s still one more Remsen to be run in Ozone Park, and it awards Kentucky Derby qualifying points of 10-5-3-2-1 to the first five finishers.

A field of 12 is entered for the 1 1/8-mile Remsen, a co-feature with the $250,000 Demoiselle Stakes (G2) -- a points-qualifier for the Kentucky Oaks (G1), and the $500,000 Cigar Mile (G2).

With many of the top 2-year-olds having finished for the year following the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) at Del Mar on Nov. 1, the Remsen looks to have a competitive field for bettors to test their handicapping skills in choosing the best of this bunch.

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There’s not much experience in this group and only three have competed in a graded stakes race – Talkin (5-1) was a distant second to Napoleon Solo in the Champagne (G1), I Did I Did (12-1) was third in the Street Sense (G3) and Balboa (12-1) ran fifth in both the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and American Pharoah (G1) for trainer Bob Baffert.

In his first start for new trainer Brittany Russell, Balboa produced 5¼- length victory in the 6-furlong John F. Lewis III Stakes at Laurel on Nov. 8. Ricardo Santana, Jr., has the call from post 10, but the distance could be a problem.

Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher sends out three – Courting (9-2), Renegade (5-1), and Grittiness (20-1).

Courting, a son of Curlin, broke his maiden going a mile in his second start on Nov. 9 and will be ridden by Hall of Famer John Velazquez from post 6. Grittiness, 0-for-3, ran second to Courting in that race.

Renegade, a son of Into Mischief, also broke his maiden going a mile in his second start. Jose Ortiz rides out of post 9. Pletcher is seeking a fourth Remsen win; Velazquez is going for a fifth victory in the race.

Talking about Talkin in the Remsen

Talkin, a Good Magic colt, looks to be in good form for trainer Danny Gargan as he shoots for a third Remsen win four years – he won it with Dubyuhnell in 2022 and with Dornoch in 2023, both also sired by Good Magic.

“I liked Good Magic as a racehorse,” Gargan said. “I took a shot on him as a sire. We are just always looking for dirt horses that go long. That’s what he is, and what we’re trying to buy. Yes, we want to try to win Classic races. We’ve gotten lucky and won one of them (Dornoch, 2024 Belmont Stakes). This horse has a big pedigree and a nice family.”

Talkin won by a neck in his debut at 7 furlongs, edging Further Ado, who broke his maiden with a 20-length romp and then captured the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2).

“He beat a good bunch there,” Gargan said. “We’ve been waiting to run two turns. We want to see a strong performance going long to set him up for next year.”

Talkin leaves from post 11 under Kendrick Carmouche.

Morning-line odds have Paladin at 3-1

The 3-1 morning-line favorite is Paladin, a Gun Runner colt trained by Chad Brown who was beaten a head by Renegade but elevated to first via disqualification in his debut.

“He ran a really good race and got herded late, and I was happy that he got put up,’’ Brown said. “Once he felt that other horse and straightened out again, he galloped out really well. I don’t think the added distance will be a problem.”

We don’t either, but we believe Balboa will handle the longer distance racing closer to the Atlantic Ocean than the Pacific Ocean.

The Remsen is race 9 with a post time of 3:08 p.m. ET.

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The Picks: 1 Balboa, 2 Courting, 3 Paladin

The Field for the $250,000 Remsen Stakes (G2), from the rail out, with jockey, trainer:

  1. Day One Starter (Junior Alvarado, Shug McGaughey), 15-1
  2. Paladin (Flavien Prat, Chad Brown), 3-1
  3. I Did I Did (Joel Rosario, Mike Maker), 12-1
  4. Grittiness (Jaime Rodriguez, Todd Pletcher), 20-1
  5. Chambersville (Chris Elliott, Kenny McPeek), 30-1
  6. Courting (John Velazquez, Todd Pletcher), 9-2
  7. Igniter (Manny Franco, Rick Dutrow, Jr.), 6-1
  8. Concarneau (Mychel Sanchez, Marya Montoya), 50-1
  9. Renegade (Irad Ortiz, Jr., Todd Pletcher), 5-1
  10. Balboa (Ricardo Santana, Jr., Brittany Russell), 12-1
  11. Talkin (Kendrick Carmouche, Danny Gargan), 5-1
  12. Probably Dreaming (Carlos Lopez, Gary Capuano), 15-1
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