We stand at the precipice of a pivotal moment in the 2025 American horse racing calendar, witnessing the unfolding drama of the Grade 1 Goodwood Stakes this weekend. This $300,000, 1 1/8-mile test for three-year-olds and upward serves as a crucial Breeders' Cup “Win and You’re In” qualifier, offering the winner an automatic, fee-paid berth into the $7 million Longines Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) in November.
Horseplayers across the globe are setting their sights on Santa Anita Park, scrutinizing the form and the pedigree of a compact but fiercely competitive field of seven runners. The allure of a Grade 1 victory and the coveted Breeders’ Cup entry drives trainers to bring their very best, creating a high-stakes handicapping puzzle for anyone looking to secure an advantage with their Goodwood Stakes betting.
This race demands both speed and stamina, and the presence of several highly regarded contenders, especially those from the powerhouse barns, immediately elevates the excitement and complexity of the Goodwood Stakes Odds. Smart bettors know they must analyze every variable, from the history of the race to the recent form of the barn. We are here to guide you through this analysis so you can confidently bet on the Goodwood Stakes.
The Goodwood Stakes runs over the iconic main track at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California. Known as “The Great Race Place,” Santa Anita’s history stretches back to its opening in 1934, establishing it as one of the most beautiful and revered thoroughbred racetracks in the world. The track itself is a 1-mile oval with a dirt surface, often praised for its fairness and consistency.
The backdrop of the San Gabriel Mountains provides one of the most scenic settings in sports, lending a sense of grandeur to every race run here. While weather is always a factor, Southern California typically offers mild, sunny conditions in late September, ensuring the fast dirt track remains in ideal condition for world-class competition. This consistent environment allows horses to run their absolute best, making peak form and class the deciding factors, rather than a muddy or sloppy track.
The Goodwood Stakes has a storied tradition as a key stepping stone to the Breeders' Cup Classic, solidifying its place as a premier fall target. Renamed several times over the years, the race always attracts top-tier talent. Its importance is underscored by the champions who have used it as a springboard to glory. Five winners of this race have gone on to capture the Longines Breeders' Cup Classic, illustrating its predictive power: the legendary Ferdinand (1987), two-time Classic winner Tiznow (2000), Pleasantly Perfect (2003), Mucho Macho Man (2013), and Accelerate (2018).
| Year | Winner | Jockey | Trainer | Owner | Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Nevada Beach | Mike E. Smith | Bob Baffert | Pegram, Michael E., Watson, Karl and Weitman, Paul | 1:48.43 |
| 2024 | Subsanador | Irad Ortiz, Jr. | Richard E. Mandella | Wathnan Racing US | 1:48.68 |
| 2023 | Slow Down Andy | Mario Gutierrez | Doug F. O'Neill | Reddam Racing LLC | 1:47.62 |
| 2022 | Defunded | Edwin A. Maldonado | Bob Baffert | Muhaideb Abdullah Almuhaideb, HDB Racing Stable | 1:49.38 |
| 2021 | Medina Spirit | John R. Velazquez | Bob Baffert | Zedan Racing Stables, Inc. | 1:49.67 |
| 2020 | Improbable | Drayden Van Dyke | Bob Baffert | WinStar Farm LLC, CHC, Inc. and SF Racing LLC | 1:49.10 |
These past winners demonstrate the caliber of athlete required to triumph in the Goodwood—a horse possessing both Grade 1 speed and the staying power to handle 1 1/8 miles against deep competition. Analyzing the Goodwood Stakes betting landscape reveals that the horse who wins here often becomes a leading contender on the national stage, dramatically shifting the future Breeders' Cup Odds.
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert brings a formidable three-pronged entry to this year’s Goodwood Stakes, signaling his intent to dominate the local scene and secure a spot in the Breeders' Cup Classic. Baffert already holds the record for most Goodwood victories, having saddled eight winners, including such luminaries as Silver Charm (1998), Game On Dude (2011, 2012), and, most recently, Defunded (2022).
His strategy of entering multiple, high-quality contenders maximizes his chances of winning. It often shapes the entire Goodwood Stakes Odds board, forcing other horsemen and bettors to play his game. Baffert’s horses are almost always fit and ready to fire, especially in a Grade 1 race on their home turf. His three entrants—Gaming, Privman, and Nevada Beach—each possess a distinct profile, giving the master trainer options for various pace scenarios.
Gaming (Post 1, 6-1 ML Odds, Jockey: Mike Smith) represents the most experienced of Baffert’s trio. This dark bay colt, a Grade 1 winner as a two-year-old in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and runner-up in the 2024 Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1), carries an impressive lifetime record of 9 starts with 3 wins, 2 seconds, and 3 thirds, amassing $786,000 in earnings.
He looked poised for the Triple Crown trail but struggled early in the year. He showed a return to form by winning the Affirmed Stakes in June, earning a 105 Equibase Speed Figure (ESF), but then ran a disappointing third in the Shared Belief Stakes at Del Mar, beaten by over 14 lengths by a stablemate.
Gaming faces the challenging task of competing against older males for the first time, a monumental step for any three-year-old. However, he reunites with Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith, who won this race in 2014 and 2024. If Smith can secure a clean stalking trip, Gaming possesses the talent to make a profound impact on the Goodwood Stakes betting returns.
Privman (Post 3, 5-1 ML Odds, Jockey: Antonio Fresu) is perhaps Baffert’s most intriguing and unproven commodity. A son of Triple Crown winner Justify, he makes his stakes debut in his sixth career start. Baffert has patiently maneuvered this colt through his conditions, and he enters the Goodwood Stakes off back-to-back victories at Del Mar, including a one-mile allowance optional claiming race.
He has never raced beyond a mile, and this 1 1/8-mile distance represents a significant stamina test, especially against Grade 1 company. The colt has demonstrated an ability to handle older runners in his last three outings, winning two and finishing second once. By trusting Baffert’s exceptional judgment and proven history of success in this race, Privman merits serious consideration, even as he steps up in class. His improving speed figures suggest he could become the surprise factor in the Goodwood Stakes Odds.
Nevada Beach (Post 5, 12-1 ML Odds, Jockey: Kyle Frey) rounds out the Baffert arsenal. This lightly raced son of Omaha Beach boasts two wins in three tries, including a victory in the Los Alamitos Derby at this 1 1/8-mile distance, where he won by 4 1/4 lengths. He also finished second to his barnmate Gaming in the Affirmed Stakes.
Nevada Beach’s biggest asset is his early speed. In a race where several horses possess the ability to contest the pace, his tactical speed gives jockey Kyle Frey the option to either dictate the fractions or sit just off the lead. At 12-1 on the morning line, he offers tempting value for exotic wagers. A flawless ride where he can secure a clear lead or a perfect pressing position could easily make him a threat in the final turn, potentially upsetting the bet on the Goodwood Stakes favorites. Baffert strategically uses his three entrants to control the pace of the race, a tactic he frequently employs in high-stakes Grade 1 events.
The Goodwood Stakes field features four other talented horses who present serious challenges to Baffert’s dominance and offer compelling opportunities for Goodwood Stakes betting.
Full Serrano (Post 7, 2-1 ML Odds, Jockey: Juan Hernandez) looms as the main threat and the morning-line favorite. This six-year-old Argentine import for trainer John Sadler comes off an impressive win in the 2024 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (G1), followed by a 10-month layoff. He returned on September 1 with a dominating 7 1/4-length allowance optional claiming win at Del Mar, earning a field-best 115 Equibase Speed Figure (ESF). This strong ESF, combined with his proven Grade 1 class, makes him the deserving favorite.
Jockey Juan Hernandez, one of California's top riders, retains the mount after their last win, a crucial factor suggesting a strong connection. Full Serrano must contend with a quick turnaround of just three weeks, but his impressive comeback race suggests he has regained his peak form. Handicappers will focus on whether he can repeat that massive speed figure while facing another top-flight field.
First Mission (Post 4, 8/5 ML Odds, Jockey: López P.) is the Brad Cox-trained invader, representing Godolphin. This five-year-old boasts a strong 2025 campaign, including a victory in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap. He has 6 wins from 14 career starts. While his speed figures are competitive, he makes his first appearance on the California dirt, a surface sometimes challenging for East Coast horses.
The logistical decision to ship him indicates his connections feel he is ready to compete at the Grade 1 level. His running style is versatile, allowing him to adapt to the anticipated pace. He holds the best average class rating (114) of any horse in the field, making him a major contender on paper. Betting on the Goodwood Stakes requires calculating the travel and surface factors for First Mission, but his overall quality is undeniable.
Ultimate Gamble (Post 2, 8-1 ML Odds, Jockey: Kazushi Kimura) is a five-year-old trained by Mark Glatt. He impressed in his stakes debut by finishing a respectable third in the $1 million Pacific Classic Stakes (G1), even as a 71-1 longshot. He was beaten only 9 ¾ lengths by the dominant winner. Cutting back from the 1 1/4 miles of the Pacific Classic to 1 1/8 miles should benefit this lightly raced gelding. His career-best 112 ESF confirms he can be competitive at this level. Ultimate Gamble is the longshot with the best chance to hit the board, presenting an excellent opportunity to boost the payouts on exactas and trifectas for savvy bettors seeking Goodwood Stakes Odds value.
Express Train (Post 6, 20-1 ML Odds, Jockey: Hector Berrios) is the elder statesman of the field at eight years old, with $1,639,800 in earnings and 27 starts—the most of any contender. The 2022 Santa Anita Handicap (G1) winner is a horse for the course, having won or placed in 13 of 16 career performances at Santa Anita.
While he seeks his first win in 10 starts, he remains a consistent exotics player, as evidenced by his recent third in the Pat O'Brien Stakes (G2). Express Train offers immense value at 20-1 for those looking to round out their superfecta and other exotic bets.
When a trainer enters multiple horses, they gain a tactical advantage by controlling the pace of the race. This is a classic "rabbit" strategy, although modern trainers deploy it more subtly. If a trainer has a superior horse who is a deep closer, they may enter a less-fancied horse with early speed to ensure a fast, contested pace. This fast pace tires out the front-runners, "setting up" the race perfectly for their closing star.
Conversely, the leading contender is a front-runner. In that case, the trainer might enter a stablemate to challenge any other early speed, keeping the pace honest and perhaps forcing a competitor to burn up their energy too soon. The betting public must carefully analyze the running styles of multiple entries from the same barn when calculating the Goodwood Stakes betting scenarios.
From a business perspective, running multiple horses for various owners in the same race allows the trainer to distribute risk and reward. Baffert trains for a wide array of owners, and by entering multiple runners, he gives several ownership groups a chance at a lucrative purse.
Even a third- or fourth-place finish in a graded stakes, such as the Goodwood, adds significant value to a horse's pedigree and residual value, benefiting the owners. This disciplined approach to opportunity assessment strengthens owner relationships and attracts new high-caliber horses to the barn.
The 2025 Goodwood Stakes offers a fascinating confrontation between the established dominance of Bob Baffert, the imposing class of Full Serrano, and the raw talent of the Brad Cox-trained First Mission. Baffert’s strategy of deploying three distinct runners—Gaming (the experienced G1 winner), Privman (the improving new shooter), and Nevada Beach (the tactical speed threat)—demonstrates his ambition to control the race from start to finish.
US Racing's deep analysis suggests that Baffert's horses, particularly Gaming and the value-oriented Nevada Beach, present significant opportunities for Goodwood Stakes betting, especially underneath the favorites in trifectas and superfectas. The favorite, Full Serrano, has the best last-out speed figure and remains the horse to beat. However, remember that the multi-entry strategy, whether utilized by Baffert in this race, is designed to capitalize on every possible outcome.
Approach the Goodwood Stakes Odds board with confidence, anchor your exotic wagers with the proven class of Full Serrano or First Mission, and include one of Baffert’s strategic entries for a highly profitable outcome. The Breeders' Cup is calling, and only one horse will answer the bell at Santa Anita. Lock in your bet on the Goodwood Stakes now.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
