The forecast for Saturday, September 27, at Santa Anita Park calls for favorable conditions for a fast main track. Expectations are for partly cloudy skies with a high temperature around 83°F (28∘°C). A low chance of precipitation and light, steady winds typically result in a fair, consistent dirt surface, which will favor horses with proven dirt form at this distance.
The $300,000 Goodwood Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita Park in Arcadia, California, is one of the premier dirt route races of the fall season. The 1 1/8-mile event for three-year-olds and up serves as a Breeders' Cup Challenge "Win and You're In" race, with the winner earning an automatic, fees-paid berth into the Breeders' Cup Classic (G1).
This year's edition has drawn a compact but deep field of seven older horses and sophomores, including a defending Grade 1 winner, a leading contender from the Midwest, and a powerful trio from a local Hall of Fame trainer. While the race offers intriguing options, these three stand out as the top plays for 2025.
The morning-line favorite is the Brad H. Cox trainee, First Mission. This five-year-old horse is the field's leading earner and enters the race with a resume full of top-tier Graded Stakes placings, showing versatility in his running style—he can press the pace or sit just off it. His consistency at this elite level is unmatched in the field, making him the horse to beat.
While he ships in from the East Coast, the connections are confident his tactical speed and demonstrated stamina at 1 1/8 miles will overcome any travel concerns. Jockey Paco Lopez, a proven stakes rider, will be critical in guiding him through the turns and ensuring he has an open run in the Santa Anita stretch. He is a deserving favorite who can take control of the race at any point.
The biggest threat to the favorite is the formidable international shipper, Full Serrano (ARG). Trained by John W. Sadler, this six-year-old brings the highest recent class to the race as a prior Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) winner. Carrying the joint high weight of 124 pounds, his proven ability to handle a strong pace and finish with determination will make him a dangerous contender.
Jockey J. J. Hernandez will look to position the horse for his best run in the stretch, and his outside post position (7) gives him options to either stalk the speed or rate back. His experience and top-tier form over the dirt are a clear advantage, suggesting he will be right in the mix when it matters most. He is a proven commodity at this class level and distance.
Among the three Bob Baffert entrants, the most intriguing is the lightly-raced sophomore, Privman. At 5-1, this three-year-old colt offers the best value from the barn. He has yet to finish outside the exacta in his career and shows significant upside as he steps up in class.
Drawing post position 3, jockey Antonio Fresu should be able to secure a forward, tactical position, which is often crucial on the Santa Anita main track. While he faces his elders and the two proven Grade 1 winners, his improving form and favorable weight allowance (carrying 118 pounds, 6 pounds less than the co-high-weights) make him a serious contender to upset the favorites. If the pace is honest, Privman can outrun his morning-line odds.
The 2025 Goodwood Stakes shapes up as a captivating betting race with a definitive championship feel. First Mission is the consistent favorite; Full Serrano is the Grade 1 winner looking to punch his ticket to the Breeders' Cup Classic; and Privman is the talented, improving younger horse who offers excellent value. Together, they form the three best bets for this year's Goodwood, and the winner will establish himself as a serious player on the dirt route scene heading into November.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
