As anticipation builds for the 151st running of the Kentucky Derby on May 3 at Churchill Downs, the conversation around odds and contenders is heating up. With the prep races concluded and the leaderboard finalized, the pecking order among Derby hopefuls is starting to crystallize—and all signs point to Journalism as the early betting favorite.
The multiple Grade 1 winner comes into the Kentucky Derby riding a three-race winning streak, capped by an emphatic score in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Given his consistent form and dominance in the West Coast prep circuit, it's no surprise that Journalism is projected to go off at the Kentucky Derby odds somewhere between 2-1 and 4-1, with 3-1 emerging as the most likely post-time figure.
While Journalism commands top billing, several other runners are lurking just behind in the betting markets. Among them is Sandman, winner of the Arkansas Derby (G1), who has attracted considerable early wagering interest. His strong closing kick, high-profile ownership through West Point Thoroughbreds, and pop-culture relevance—thanks in part to co-owner and social media influencer Griffin Johnson—make him an attractive pick for bettors seeking value beyond the favorite.
Sovereignty, a Bill Mott trainee and runner-up in the Florida Derby (G1), has established himself as a consistent performer with Churchill Downs experience on his resume. Meanwhile, Rodriguez, conditioned by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, recently clinched the Wood Memorial (G2) and brings early speed to the table—something that could prove pivotal given Churchill's history of favoring pace-setters under the right conditions.
Despite defeating Sovereignty in the Florida Derby, Tappan Street hasn’t generated the same buzz. Still, with a marquee prep race win under his belt, he remains a top-six contender and could surprise if the pace scenario plays in his favor.
International flair arrives in the form of Luxor Café, a Japanese invader boasting a four-race win streak, including a convincing score over UAE Derby (G1) winner Admire Daytona. His most recent victory—a five-length romp in the Fukuryu Stakes—reinforces Japan’s growing influence on the international racing scene. While shipping logistics and unfamiliar conditions add an element of uncertainty, Japanese entries have become increasingly respected on the Derby stage.
Beyond the top tier, several longshots round out the expected field. Flying Mohawk, runner-up in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), brings local interest thanks to his Louisville-based trainer and co-owner, a former Major League Baseball star. Meanwhile, Owen Almighty, winner of the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), is expected to be one of the longest shots in the field. While public familiarity with the name might garner a few sentimental bets, the odds will reflect the uphill battle he faces.
Before wagering kicks into high gear, fans and connections alike will have their eyes on the all-important post-position draw, scheduled for Saturday, April 26, at approximately 7:25 p.m. ET. Held at Churchill Downs’ second-floor terrace, the draw determines the starting gate assignments—a crucial factor, as certain posts have historically proven more favorable than others.
The Kentucky Oaks draw will precede it, starting around 7:15 p.m. ET, setting the stage for a blockbuster weekend of racing.
Post positions can heavily influence Kentucky Derby betting odds, especially for horses with specific pace preferences. Inside draws benefit frontrunners like Rodriguez, while closers such as Sandman often prefer a mid-to-outside slot to avoid traffic trouble. Observers of the 2024 Derby will recall Mystik Dan’s victory from post No. 3—a reminder of how a good draw can make all the difference.
Leading the Kentucky Derby qualifying leaderboard with 130 points is Burnham Square, trained by Ian Wilkes. His decisive win in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland cemented his place in the gate and pushed his career tally to three wins in six starts. Though he’s not garnering the same attention as Journalism or Sandman, Burnham Square's consistency and late-season form cannot be overlooked.
For those analyzing Kentucky Derby betting strategies, he presents a compelling option with potential value at longer odds.
With the prep races in the rear-view mirror and the draw just days away, the countdown to May 3 is in full swing. This year’s edition of the Run for the Roses promises drama, talent, and wide-open betting opportunities. From elite favorites like Journalism to rising stars and international threats, the 2025 Kentucky Derby field is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in recent memory.
Whether you’re narrowing down your picks based on pace dynamics or hoping to land a longshot, now is the time to dive deep into form guides, workout reports, and trainer quotes. As you bet on Kentucky Derby day, remember that the Derby rarely goes as expected—but that’s part of what makes it the greatest two minutes in sports.
| Kentucky Derby: Historical Contender Performances | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Odds Rank | Entrant | Morning Line | Finish |
| 2024 | Favorite | Fierceness | 5-2 | 15 |
| 2024 | Longest shot | Grand Mo the First | 50-1 | 18 |
| 2023 | Favorite | Angel of Empire | 8-1 | 3 |
| 2023 | Longest shot | Jace's Road | 50-1 | 17 |
| 2022 | Favorite | Epicenter | 7-2 | 2 |
| 2022 | Longest shot | Rich Strike | 30-1 | 1 |
| 2021 | Favorite | Essential Quality | 2-1 | 3 |
| 2021 | Longest shot | Like the King | 50-1 | 11 |
| 2020 | Favorite | Tiz the Law | 3-5 | 2 |
| 2020 | Longest shot | Winning Impression | 50-1 | 12 |
| 2019 | Favorite | Improbable | 6-1 | 4 |
| 2019 | Longest shot | Bodexpress | 30-1 | 13 |
| 2018 | Favorite | Justify | 3-1 | 1 |
| 2018 | Longest shot | Instilled Regard | 50-1 | 4 |
| 2017 | Favorite | Always Dreaming | 5-1 | 1 |
| 2017 | Longest shot | Untrapped | 30-1 | 12 |
| 2016 | Favorite | Nyquist | 3-1 | 1 |
| 2016 | Longest shot | Majesto | 30-1 | 18 |
| 2015 | Favorite | American Pharoah | 5-2 | 1 |
| 2015 | Longest shot | Frammento | 50-1 | 11 |
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
