With the 151st Kentucky Derby (G1) just days away, bettors and horse racing fans are closely analyzing post positions and form as they prepare to lock in their bets for the most significant event in American horse racing.
All 19 contenders have completed their final works at Churchill Downs, and trainers are confident as their horses prepare for the 1¼-mile classic. With the Kentucky Derby betting morning-line odds ranging from 3-1 to 30-1, this year’s Derby promises a mix of class, speed, and late closers.
Journalism has taken center stage as the 3-1 favorite following a commanding win in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 5. Trained by Michael McCarthy, the colt has strung together four straight victories and leads all contenders in consistency. With Umberto Rispoli aboard and a comfortable draw in post 8, Journalism looks poised to deliver on the promise that’s made him the top choice on most tickets.
Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert returns to the Derby this year and has labeled Journalism the horse to beat. Baffert, seeking a record seventh Derby win, will send out two starters: Citizen Bull (20-1) and Rodriguez (SCR), this last one scratched by a foot bruise and replaced by Baeza.
Behind Journalism are three highly respected runners who could easily pull the upset. Sovereignty, listed at 5-1 (BUSR odds), enters with strong form after a second-place finish in the Florida Derby (G1). Trained by Bill Mott, Sovereignty will break from post 18, allowing him to settle early and make a late run down the stretch—a style that suits his pedigree and running profile.
Sandman, the 6-1 Arkansas Derby (G1) winner, brings eye-catching late speed and a flashy gray coat, making him a fan favorite. Owned in part by influencer Griffin Johnson and trained by Hall of Famer Mark Casse, Sandman will break from post 17—historically the only gate without a Derby win (0-for-42). Still, his closer's style and rising popularity have ensured he’ll be a top pick for many.
International interest will again focus on Japan’s Luxor Café (15-1), who enters on a four-race win streak, including a decisive victory over UAE Derby (G2) winner Admire Daytona earlier this year. The Japanese-bred colt has proven himself over distance and against tough company. With his win in the Fukuryu Stakes and his tactical versatility, he could give Japan its long-awaited first Derby victory.
At 30-1, the betting public might overlook Flying Mohawk, but his profile is intriguing. A game second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), he carries the hopes of Louisville-based trainer Whit Beckman and former MLB star Jayson Werth. With homegrown ties and improving form, Flying Mohawk could outkick expectations.
Owen Almighty also carries 30-1 odds after a sixth-place effort in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1). He previously won the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), and his connections chose to keep him in the Derby despite briefly considering the Pat Day Mile (G2). Trainer Brian Lynch hopes the colt’s grinding style and outside post will give him room to make a sustained bid.
With all 19 runners drawn, plenty of intrigue surrounds how the race might unfold. Speed horses like Citizen Bull, Neoequos, and Luxor Café all drew inside posts—ideal if they break cleanly and secure position. Meanwhile, closers such as Sandman and Sovereignty landed outside slots, which could benefit their strategy of avoiding early traffic and launching late runs.
It’s worth noting that Sandman will try to break the so-called “curse” of post 17. No Derby winner has ever emerged from that gate in 42 tries. Recent history, like Mystik Dan’s 2024 victory from post 3, shows that the right horse can overcome a challenging draw.
Topping the Kentucky Derby points leaderboard with 130 points is Burnham Square (12-1), trained by Ian Wilkes. A convincing winner of the Blue Grass Stakes, Burnham Square owns three wins in six starts and enters in peak condition. While he hasn’t attracted the same buzz as Journalism or Sandman, his late-running style and proven class make him a viable upset candidate.
Though recent Derby history hasn’t favored points leaders—California Chrome in 2014 was the last to win from that position—Burnham Square’s form and versatility give him a legitimate shot. And at double-digit odds, he presents betting value against the top tier.
With post positions locked and the field set, Kentucky Derby betting has officially opened. Handicappers and casual fans are now poring over form, pace projections, and weather forecasts. As the big day approaches, expect fluctuations in the Kentucky Derby odds as more money hits the pools.
This year’s field offers a compelling mix of proven winners, high-priced longshots, and international hopefuls. Whether you’re picking based on pedigree, pace scenario, or the value on the tote board, the 2025 Kentucky Derby betting landscape promises fireworks. Post time is 6:57 p.m. ET on Saturday, May 3, and the eyes of the racing world will be fixed on Churchill Downs as another chapter in Derby history is written. Will the favorite hold, or will a longshot seize the roses? The only thing left is to place your bet and enjoy the ride.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
