The calendar turns to November, bringing with it the crisp air of late autumn in New York and the closing crescendo of the turf season at Aqueduct. For dedicated handicappers, this is the time of year when long-distance specialists truly shine. The Grade III, $250,000 Long Island Stakes, contested at 1 3/8 miles over the demanding inner turf course, serves as the premier marathon event for fillies and mares. This race is a crucible for stamina, tactical riding, and training excellence.
We examine this complete field of ten accomplished turf runners, meticulously analyzing the speed, class, and form to identify the three fillies and mares offering the best value and highest probability of victory. For those looking to place a confident bet on Long Island Stakes, understanding the intricate dynamics of this marathon trip is paramount. The full breakdown of the Long Island Stakes betting landscape reveals several key contenders and one or two live longshots that could inflate the exotic payoffs.
This edition of the Long Island Stakes features a remarkably deep and competitive cast, drawing top runners from the barns of turf masters H. Graham Motion, Chad Brown, and Bill Mott—trainers who collectively define distance turf racing in North America. The overall class level here is high, with Grade 2 and Grade 3 winners mixing with consistent stakes-placed European imports. We see a clash of tactical styles, pitting a likely lone speed against a cohort of top-shelf closers.
The pace scenario dictates everything in turf marathons, and the projected pace profile for this Long Island Stakes suggests a potentially slow start, benefiting those positioned close to the front. Immensitude (#6), hailing from the Bill Mott barn, appears as the primary, if not sole, speed. She established herself on the lead in her recent victories, and we expect Junior Alvarado to send her straight to the front, controlling the tempo and setting soft early fractions. Closers must navigate a difficult situation: a prolonged, sustained run from the half-mile pole could prove necessary to reel in a mare who enjoys the advantage of an easy lead. Therefore, our Long Island Stakes betting strategy must favor horses possessing tactical speed or a devastating late kick.
The quality of the jockeys in this field is also elite. Flavien Prat, Javier Castellano, and John R. Velazquez bring decades of experience and stakes success at Aqueduct, particularly in turf routes. Castellano, a three-time winner of this very event, pilots the morning-line favorite, Beach Bomb, demonstrating the high-caliber pairings competing for the $250,000 purse. When scrutinizing the Long Island Stakes odds board, we notice the favorite is strong. Still, the depth of talent extends far into the 8-1 to 15-1 range, promising excellent value in exactas and trifectas.
H. Graham Motion has successfully targeted the Long Island Stakes on numerous occasions, boasting an exceptional record with European imports and American-bred marathon turf runners. Motion brings two heavy hitters to this year’s renewal: No Show Sammy Jo (#1) and the morning-line favorite, Beach Bomb (#3). This two-pronged attack represents a masterclass in conditioning for this specific 1 3/8-mile distance.
No Show Sammy Jo almost captured this race last year, falling short by only a nose, confirming her affinity for this track and distance. Beach Bomb, meanwhile, enters off a Grade 3 win and Grade 1 placing, demonstrating superior class. When reviewing the Long Island Stakes odds, Beach Bomb sits at 3/1, a justifiable favorite based on her back class and the trainer's expertise. Motion runners thrive on the late-running strategy this race often requires, and these two mares present a powerful combination of fitness and distance suitability, making any bet on Long Island Stakes involving them a wise decision.
The presence of a lone speed runner like Immensitude (#6, 4/1) completely reshapes the Long Island Stakes betting picture. Trainer Bill Mott, a Hall of Famer, does not enter horses in these races without a clear plan. Immensitude's recent wire-to-wire allowance victory over the Aqueduct turf course—a track notoriously challenging for front-runners—demonstrates a strong will and a high cruising speed.
In a marathon race like this, a jockey like Junior Alvarado can dictate the tempo, setting fractions slow enough to reserve energy for the stretch drive, yet fast enough to discourage deep closers who often rely on a complete collapse of the pace. Immensitude defeated one of her stablemates, Alluring Angel, in a previous encounter, suggesting she holds the class advantage within the Mott camp. We must consider that if she gets away with fractions like 25 seconds for the first quarter and 50 seconds for the half, she instantly becomes challenging to catch, regardless of the quality of the closers running behind her.
A race of 1 3/8 miles demands tactical patience and precise timing from the jockey, qualities our three top contenders' riders possess in abundance. We see the powerful pairing of Flavien Prat aboard Grayosh (#2, 5/1). Prat has been sensational in New York turf stakes, boasting an impressive win rate, and he has a knack for getting Grade 2 winner Grayosh to perform at her peak, despite her recent string of seconds.
Furthermore, Javier Castellano aboard Beach Bomb (#3) is a proven marathon specialist and a three-time Long Island Stakes winner. Castellano understands the subtle nuances of Aqueduct’s turf course better than most, knowing exactly when to deploy his horse’s late kick to maximize their chances. When considering the Long Island Stakes odds and the thin margins of victory in races of this distance, the quality of the jockey becomes a tie-breaker. Do not overlook the impact of the rider when formulating your Long Island Stakes betting strategy. The partnership of a highly successful jockey with an in-form horse significantly improves the chances for a conversion, and that's precisely what we're targeting here. The historical success rate of favorites and underdogs often comes down to the tactical race-riding.
We meticulously evaluate each runner in the field, detailing their past performances (PPs), running style, and official morning-line (M/L) Long Island Stakes odds.
Analysis: This H. Graham Motion trainee represents excellent value at 8/1 on the Long Island Stakes odds board. A five-year-old mare, No Show Sammy Jo, clearly enjoys this course and distance, as evidenced by her nose defeat in the previous edition of this race. She typically settles mid-pack, making one sustained run. Her recent victory in the allowance company showed she retains a high competitive spirit.
While she carries 123 pounds, the added weight has not deterred her in the past. Jockey J. Ruiz guides her, and they will need a clean break and a clear path in the stretch to replicate last year's performance. The most significant question mark is whether she steps back up to Grade 3 company with the same zest. We believe she fits well and offers a fantastic chance to include in your Long Island Stakes betting exotics.
Analysis: Grayosh, trained by Chad C. Brown, represents a model of consistency at 5/1 in the Long Island Stakes odds. The four-year-old filly has a Grade 2 win on her résumé but enters this race having finished in the top five in six consecutive starts without finding the winner’s circle. She chased several of these rivals in allowance company last out, settling for second. However, the partnership with white-hot jockey Flavien Prat cannot be overstated.
Prat boasts an outstanding record in Aqueduct turf stakes. Grayosh has the class and tactical versatility to sit just off the pace, capitalizing if Immensitude falters. This filly is an absolute must-use when you bet on Long Island Stakes, especially in vertical wagers like the exacta and trifecta. She’s a professional competitor who consistently gives her best effort.
Analysis: The 3/1 morning-line favorite, Beach Bomb, commands attention from any handicapper reviewing the Long Island Stakes odds. Also trained by H. Graham Motion, this South African-bred five-year-old mare is a Grade 3 winner and Grade 1-placed, showcasing the highest level of proven class in the field. Last time out, she rallied for second in the Grade 3 Waya Stakes. Trainer Motion believes she will be closer to the pace in this engagement, a crucial factor given the predicted slow fractions.
With three-time Long Island Stakes winner Javier Castellano aboard, Beach Bomb should secure a ground-saving trip, poised to strike when Castellano decides it is time. Her combination of elite class, suitability for the 1 3/8-mile distance, and the stellar jockey-trainer pairing makes her the most likely winner and a cornerstone of any strategy to bet on Long Island Stakes.
Analysis: Brocknardini represents the New York-bred contingent at a long Long Island Stakes odds of 20/1. Trainer George Weaver tries a blinkers-on change after a string of flat performances from this four-year-old filly. While she showed promise as a two-year-old, she has yet to develop into a consistent stakes threat.
Jockey John R. Velazquez is highly accomplished, but the filly's current form suggests she faces a significant class disadvantage against the European and Kentucky-bred runners here. She needs a career-best performance, coupled with a complete collapse of the favorites, to factor in the final outcome. We view her as a non-contender for the win, though her inclusion is noted for exotic bettors seeking the highest possible payouts in the deep vertical pools.
Analysis: Lady Firefoot is the race’s designated deep longshot, listed at a massive 50/1 on the Long Island Stakes odds board. The seven-year-old mare has consistently struggled at this stakes level, finishing near the back in similar contests at Aqueduct. Her eighth-place finish in last year's edition of the Long Island Stakes at even longer odds offers little encouragement.
Trainer M. Giddings puts L R Rivera, Jr. up, but even a perfect ride will likely not overcome the obvious class and form disparity. We must pass on her for all win and place consideration, relegating her solely to the deepest of vertical wagers where a surprise fourth or fifth might be required. The smart money avoids backing her to win when you bet on Long Island Stakes.
Analysis: Immensitude is the controlling speed and a major threat at 4/1 in the Long Island Stakes odds. Trained by Bill Mott, this French-bred five-year-old mare comes off an impressive wire-to-wire allowance win over the course, confirming her fitness and affinity for Aqueduct. Junior Alvarado, a Long Island Stakes winner himself, will likely send her to the front, exploiting the predicted lack of pace.
If Immensitude dictates leisurely fractions, she transforms into a pace-presser’s nightmare. She has been competitive against top-level companies, including No Show Sammy Jo and Beach Bomb, proving that the pace advantage could be enough to turn the tide in her favor. She stands as the primary threat to the favorites and demands serious consideration in every aspect of Long Island Stakes betting. The Mott barn excels at preparing European runners for these New York marathons.
Analysis: Alluring Angel, a stablemate to Immensitude from the Bill Mott barn, offers an intriguing alternative at 8/1 in the Long Island Stakes odds. This five-year-old British-bred mare delivered a strong rallying third in the Grade 3 Waya Stakes over this very course, finishing only three-quarters of a length behind Beach Bomb.
She has finished behind Immensitude in prior races, but her preference for a stalking or closing trip might be more beneficial if the pace is genuinely contested. Kendrick Carmouche, a 2015 winner of the Long Island Stakes, takes the reins, providing a boost of experience. Her form suggests she is peaking at the right time and presents a substantial threat for a piece of the purse. She represents genuine value and merits inclusion in your analysis of the Long Island Stakes betting market.
Analysis: Trainer Mike J. Maker is famous for his success with turf routers, and Amber Cascade is a perfect example of his ability to elevate a claimed horse. Claimed for $80,000 in May, this five-year-old mare quickly rewarded her new connections with second-place finishes in stakes company at Kentucky Downs and Saratoga.
Although she was disappointed as the favorite, finishing last in the Grade 2 Rodeo Drive at Santa Anita, her former patient style suits this marathon better than the forward position she took that day. Nik Juarez, who won the Long Island Stakes in 2017, returns to the saddle. If she reverts to her powerful patient run, she is highly dangerous at 6/1 Long Island Stakes odds. Do not overlook the Maker magic; many sharp bettors will bet on Long Island Stakes with an eye on this mare.
Analysis: Way to Be Marie, a four-year-old filly from the barn of Rob Atras, enters the fray at attractive 5/1 Long Island Stakes odds. While Atras is not typically associated with the volume of turf success as Motion or Brown, this filly showed she belongs by defeating Grayosh in a recent allowance race, establishing her as a serious competitor.
She runs with a slightly higher weight of 123 pounds, and the partnership with jockey Manuel Franco has been effective. Her running style is versatile, allowing her to adapt whether Immensitude sets a crawl or a slightly faster tempo. We include her in the group of serious contenders who possess both the form and the class to triumph in this Grade 3 affair. This filly represents the local, in-form talent ready to challenge the established stakes performers.
Analysis: Trainer Chad C. Brown enters Fun With Flags as his second challenger, offering a tempting longshot option at 15/1 on the Long Island Stakes odds board. This Irish-bred four-year-old filly has the pedigree and conditioning to excel at this marathon distance, a characteristic often found in Brown’s European imports. Jockey D. Davis gets the call.
Fun With Flags is projected to be forwardly placed, which is a major advantage given the pace scenario. Brown often uses the Long Island Stakes as a proving ground for his developing distance runners, and while she is listed at generous Long Island Stakes odds, she should not be dismissed. Her ability to stay close to the pace without burning too much energy gives her a real shot to land a spot in the money, making her a savvy addition to any exotic Long Island Stakes betting ticket.
We have thoroughly dissected the class, pace, form, and trainer influence in this compelling edition of the Long Island Stakes. After weighing the talent, value, and projected running trips, we confidently nominate these three contenders as the best bet on Long Island Stakes selections for sign-up driven success.
Beach Bomb stands out as the most accomplished horse in the field, exhibiting both Grade 3 winning form and Grade 1 participation. Trainer H. Graham Motion knows exactly how to prepare a mare for this unique 1 3/8-mile distance, and jockey Javier Castellano’s historical success in the Long Island Stakes confirms their tactical advantage. She handles a slower pace by sitting closer to the front, and her proven turn-of-foot makes her lethal in the stretch. She represents a strong, confident play for the win. We are making a strong recommendation to bet on Long Island Stakes with Beach Bomb as the top selection, capitalizing on her superior ability.
Immensitude represents the logical threat based purely on the pace scenario. If the closing brigade fails to respect her early speed, she converts the Grade 3 Long Island Stakes into a quarter-mile sprint from the three-eighths pole, a race she is highly conditioned to win. Her recent wire-to-wire performance at Aqueduct shows her absolute comfort on this course. We must acknowledge that the Long Island Stakes odds of 4/1 offer fantastic value for a horse likely to control the entire running of the race. Trainer Bill Mott gives Immensitude a significant edge through his preparation, forcing every other jockey to ride against the expected fractions.
While Grayosh has recently settled for placings, her consistency and the presence of Flavien Prat cannot be ignored. The combination of a top-tier trainer in Chad Brown and a turf-stakes master in Prat dramatically elevates her prospects. Grayosh has the class of a Grade 2 winner and possesses the versatility to either press the pace or sit just behind the leaders. She consistently runs close to the action, avoiding the traffic issues that might plague the deep closers. She provides the perfect balance of form and favorable Long Island Stakes betting value, serving as the best backup to the two top selections and a vital component of any winning exotic ticket. Her presence ensures strong competition and makes the Long Island Stakes betting a thrilling prospect for fans.
The 2025 Long Island Stakes offers an exhilarating finale to the Aqueduct turf season, presenting a challenging and potentially rewarding handicapping puzzle. We have navigated the dense field, analyzing the influence of turf experts like Motion, Brown, and Mott, and focusing on the crucial pace advantage held by Immensitude. We believe the superior class and tactical position of Beach Bomb make her the strongest win candidate, but the excellent Long Island Stakes odds and undeniable pace advantage of Immensitude mean we must respect her chances immensely.
This is your moment to transform analysis into action. The complexity of the Long Island Stakes betting market often rewards the focused bettor who recognizes the nuances of the distance. Do not just watch the finish; actively participate. Study these selections, review the Long Island Stakes odds once more as the final money flows in, and take control of your wagering destiny. Secure your winning ticket and celebrate the thrill of victory with the final, great turf marathon of the year.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
