In the runup to the 150th Kentucky Derby (G1) on May 4, usracing.com continues with our Derby Top 10 contenders. Rankings will be updated periodically as Derby preps with qualifying points are contested.
A pair of 9-1 long shots, an 11-1 surprise winner, and an odds-on favorite ineligible to run in the Kentucky Derby (G1) combined to shake up our Derby Top 10.
Add the news that Locked, No. 1 in last month’s opening rankings, will miss the Sam F. Davis (G3) after spiking a fever, and there’s no clear-cut leader of the pack.
Shaking Up the Track: Underdogs Steal the Spotlight in Latest Races
Uncle Heavy ($20.60) and Hades ($20.40) pulled off upsets in the Withers (G3) and the Holy Bull (G3), respectively, on Saturday (Feb. 3). Both favorites, Lightline in the Withers and early top Derby contender Fierceness in the Holy Bull, finished third.
In the Southwest (G3), it was Mystik Dan ($24.80) rolling to an eight-length win for trainer Ken McPeek, and unbeaten Nysos, perhaps the best 3-year-old to date, romping0 by 7 1/2 lengths in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) for trainer Bob Baffert (he’s suspended by Churchill Downs; his horses aren’t Derby eligible).
With Todd Pletcher-trained Fierceness not firing for the second time in four starts – he did win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) on Nov. 4 – the colt drops from No. 2 to No. 10 in the latest usracing.com rankings.
Locked, also trained by Pletcher, remains No. 1 by default. It’s still early, and the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) winner could be back on the work tab this weekend, with his 3-year-old debut to be decided afterward.
They may have been longshots entering last weekend, but the winners deserve to be included among the leading contenders. For now, anyway.
2024 Kentucky Derby Contenders Top 10
1 Locked (Todd Pletcher, Jose Ortiz)
After what took place in recent preps, even slight fever keeping him out of Sam. F. Davis not enough to drop him from top spot … Finished third in BC Juvenile (G1) but closed well … Pletcher: “One of the good things about being ready for some of the early preps is it gives you a window on the other side to call an audible” … No. 6 on Derby points leaderboard (19) … Next start: TBD … Derby future wager odds: 18-1 (pool 3).
Track Phantom
2 Track Phantom (Steve Asmussen, Joel Rosario)
Winner of three is a row, most recently the Lecomte on Jan. 20 … Worked 5 furlongs win 1:01.00 at Fair Grounds on Feb. 3 … Son of Quality Road purchased for $500,000 at 2022 Keeneland yearling sale … No. 2 on Derby points leaderboard (30) … Next start: Risen Star, Fair Grounds, Feb. 17 … Derby future wager odds: 18-1.
3 Catching Freedom (Brad Cox, Cristian Torres)
Looks set to build on Smarty Jones win Jan. 1 … Worked 5 furlongs in 1:01.40 at Fair Grounds on Feb. 3 … Winner in 3-of-4 career starts .
Next start: Risen Star, Fair Grounds, Feb. 17 … No. 16 on Derby points leaderboard (10) … Derby future wager odds: 28-1.
4 Hades (Joe Orseno, Paco Lopez)
Hail Hades! Shock of weekend with upset of BC Juvenile winner Fierceness … Orseno, training for more than 45 years, has one Derby starter on his resume – Thunder Blitz, fourth, in 2001 … Gelded son of Awesome Slew is 3-for-3 … Orseno: “I bought him with some high expectations, and he lived up to them.’’
Next start: Fountain of Youth, March 2 or Florida Derby, March 30 … No. 4 on Derby points leaderboard (20 points) … Derby future wager odds: 6-5 (mutuel field).
5 Mystik Dan (Ken McPeek, Brian Hernandez, Jr.)
Pulled off 13-1 upset in muddy Southwest, winning by eight lengths over 10 rivals … Son of Goldencents could give McPeek a Derby chance (he’s 0-for-9) … Ran fifth in Smarty Jones on Jan. 1 …
Next start: Arkansas Derby, Oaklawn Park, March 30 … No. 3 on Derby leaderboard (21 points) … Derby future wager odds: 2-1 (mutuel field)
Dornoch
6 Dornoch (Danny Gargan, Luis Saez)
Remsen winner working at Palm Meadows for 3-year-old debut in a few weeks, most recently breezing 4 furlongs in 49.15 on Jan. 30 … Finished first or second in four career races …
Next start: Fountain of Youth, Gulfstream Park, March 2 … No. 15 on Derby leaderboard (10 points) … Derby future wager odds: 15-1.
7 Snead (Brendan Walsh, Jareth Loveberry)
Still have faith in son of 2015 Derby winner Nyquist after runner-up finish to Track Phantom in Gun Runner on Dec. 23 … Finished in top three in 4-of-5 career starts …
Next start: Risen Star, Fair Grounds, Feb. 17 … No. 33 on Derby leaderboard (5 points) … Derby future wager odds: 69-1.
8 Timberlake (Brad Cox, John Velazquez)
Working at Fair Grounds for long-awaited 3-year-old debut, which could come in Rebel at Oaklawn on Feb. 24 … Worked 4 furlongs in 48.60 on Feb. 3 (10th fastest of 92 at the distance) … Won Champagne by 4 ¼ lengths over sloppy track on Oct. 7 … Ran fourth in BC Juvenile .
Next start: Rebel, Oaklawn Park, Feb. 24 … No. 8 on Derby leaderboard (16 points) … Derby future wager odds: 30-1.
9 Honor Marie (Whit Beckman, Rafael Bejarano)
Last-to-first winner of Kentucky Jockey Club on Nov. 23 … Training at Fair Grounds, most recently 5 furlongs in 1:01.60 (eighth fastest of 39 at the distance) on Feb. 5 .
Next start: Risen Star, Fair Grounds, Feb. 17 … No. 13 on Derby leaderboard (10 points) … Derby future wager odds: 25-1.
10 Fierceness (Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez)
Holy Bull third not complete clunker (like Champagne), but poor start and some jostling left 2-year-old champ with nothing left in stretch … Still has 6 ¼-length win in BC Juvenile, and plans call for another prep … Next start: Florida Derby, Gulfstream Park, March 30 … No. 1 on Derby points leaderboard (30) … Derby future wager odds: 8-1.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
