How do we make money betting on the $500,000 Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) with Sovereignty sitting there as an overwhelming favorite against only four rivals?
The answer: we spread the action into a multi-race play. More on that in a moment, after we take a peek at the Jim Dandy for 3-year-olds, Saturday’s main event at Saratoga.
Sovereignty is well known to sports fans after his wins in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and the Belmont Stakes (G1). He is the undisputed leader of this crop of sophomores and the Jim Dandy is merely a tune-up for the $1.25 million Travers Stakes (G1) on Aug. 23, the top attraction of the Saratoga meet.
Keep in mind, it is still a race and anything can, and has, happened at the track known as the “Graveyard of Favorites.”
Hall of Famer Bill Mott, Sovereignty’s trainer, acknowledges as much.
“We hope he has a good race and has a little luck. Anything can happen,” Mott said. “They’ve got to go around there, and it’s not over until those blinking lights say ‘official.’ They’ve got to hang those numbers up and say official.”
True enough, but it would be a substantial upset if a number other than Sovereignty’s #5 is posted in the win position.
He is the 2-5 favorite, meaning there will be little value betting Sovereignty to win, place or show…unless you plan to make a big investment to chase a very small return.
Baeza, third in the Derby and Belmont to Sovereignty, is 3-1; Sandman is 6-1, Mo Plex is 10-1, and Hill Road is 12-1.
Here’s where the Pick 3 comes into play. The Jim Dandy is the 10th race on the card. We can construct a Pick-3 ticket on races 9, 10 and 11 with Sovereignty our “single,” meaning he is our only play in the 10th.
The value strategy presents in the other two legs.
The ninth race is the Lake George Stakes (G3) for 3-year-old fillies on the turf with Classic Q the 2-1 morning-line favorite.
Classic Q scored her first stakes victory last time out in Saratoga’s Wild Applause Stakes with a front-running effort. She might face a stiffer test this time if she tries to employ those same tactics.
The Chad Brown-trained duo of Play With Fire (4-1) and Lavender Disaster (5-2) finished second and third respectively in the Wild Applause and again loom as the top challengers. For added value, let’s include Pretty Lavish (12-1) in the mix who has run second in both the Hilltop Stakes at Pimlico and the Boiling Springs at Monmouth Park.
Then comes the Jim Dandy and we leap ahead to the 11th race, a maiden race for New York-bred fillies on the grass.
Hello Beauty is the 5-2 favorite based on a near miss most recently at Churchill Downs. A nice effort, but hardly an intimidating one.
Off Script (9-2) makes her turf debut in her return from Indiana. She turned in a couple of nice efforts on the main track here last summer.
Sassetti (10-1) offers intriguing value after a trouble-filled trip last time out at Aqueduct.
Post time for the Jim Dandy is 5:41 p.m. ET.
So now it’s time to put it all together.
Race 9: #5 Classic Q/#10 Play With Fire/#4 Lavender Disaster/#2 Pretty Lavish
Race 10: #5 Sovereignty
Race 11: #9 Hello Beauty/#3 Off Script/#2 Sassetti
1 Baeza (Hector Berrios, John Shirreffs), 3-1
2 Sandman (Jose Ortiz, Mark Casse), 6-1
3 Mo Plex (Manny Franco, Jeremiah Englehart), 10-1
4 Hill Road (Irad Ortiz, Jr., Chad Brown), 12-1
5 Sovereignty (Junior Alvarado, Bill Mott), 2-5
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
