In the weeks leading up to the 2025 Kentucky Derby (G1) at Churchill Downs on May 3, the USRacing handicappers will lay out $100 worth of betting options on selected races.
The 2-1 favorite aims to make amends for a disappointing fourth in Oaklawn’s Southwest Stakes (G3) as the 4-5 favorite. At first glance, a handicapper might write him off following what appeared to be a dull effort.
Looking deeper, he broke poorly and lost any chance for a forward position. Jockey Flavien Prat had no choice but to push the colt into a middle move, which is not his game.
He draws the outside post here in a compact field where several top contenders are deep closers. Florent Geroux replaces Prat (who has the mount on Chancer McPatrick). Geroux, who guided Patch Adams to a 10 ½-length maiden win at Churchill Downs, will look to put his mount in stalking position and should get first run at the speed horses before the closers get untracked.
The 8-5 second choice was the toast of Saratoga last summer with impressive come-from-behind wins in his debut and in the Hopeful (G1). He then added the Champagne (G1) at Aqueduct to his resume of impressive victories before heading to Del Mar where he was well backed at 2-1 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) but could only close mildly to be sixth.
He underwent ankle surgery after that race and launches his comeback here. Trainer Chad Brown picked this race instead of the tougher 3-year-old stakes at Gulfstream Park. Chancer is tough, but is he ready?
He’s also making his season debut. Following a third-place finish in the BC Juvenile, the 4-1 choice joined Brown’s barn. Like stablemate Chancer McPatrick, Hill Road is a deep closer. A lively early pace would greatly enhance his chances.
He’s 5-1 and appearing in his third straight Tampa Bay Derby. It’s been an interesting time on Florida’s West Coast. He was disqualified from a victory in the Pasco Stakes and was a hard-fought second in the Sam F. Davis. The competition is tougher here, but home court has a value.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
