Saturday’s Grade 1, $1.25 million Travers Stakes couldn’t be more intriguing. Besides bringing together the leading 3-year-old colts (Dornoch, Fierceness, Sierra Leone), there’s the injection of Girl Power with all-conquering filly Thorpedo Anna. She’ll try to be the first female to take the 1¼-mile “fourth classic” since 1915.
Travers sets up well for Sierra Leone; not so well for filly Thorpedo Anna
Her fans will be wearing pink, the dominant color for this Midsummer Derby at ancient Saratoga. (Parimutuel alert: The Battle of the Sexes subplot guarantees that Thorpedo Anna will be overbet, improving potential payoffs for her three top rivals.)
No matter how the race turns out, as always, an event day is all about anticipation. For weeks the racing world has been looking forward to this one.
Thorpedo Anna. NYRA Photo
For those who like to bet on horse racing, here’s a horse-by-horse analysis from the rail out, with trainer, jockey and odds in parentheses:
Post time for the Travers, race 13, is 6:10 p.m. ET
1. THORPEDO ANNA
(Kenny McPeek, Brian Hernadez Jr., 3-1)
Queen of the 3-year-old fillies adds juice to what would have been a great field anyway. She’s been unstoppable winning four consecutive stakes by 18¾ combined lengths.
Thorpedo Anna is terrific, but her debut against males doesn’t set up well. Drawing the rail won’t help. She’s never faced a horse in the league of Dornoch, Fierceness or Sierra Leone, and her speed figures fall short of theirs. Looks like a disappointing day for everyone wearing pink.
Betting verdict: Toss
2. SIERRA LEONE
(Chad Brown, Flavien Prat, 7-2)
Trouble-prone colt will never get a setup more favorable to a deep closer. Besides Dornoch, Fierceness and Thorpedo Anna, longshots Batten Down and Unmatched Wisdom will be part of what projects as a lively, contested pace. Another edge: Sierra Leone’s stablemate Unmatched Wisdom looks like his personal pacemaker.
Prat has had two races to get used to Sierra Leone’s self-defeating quirks (poor starts, lugging in). The French standout has been stacking up Spa stakes wins and should work out a ground-saving trip from post 2.
Betting verdict: The pick
3. UNMATCHED WISDOM
(Chad Brown, Irad Ortiz Jr., 8-1)
Expect Irad to gun this speedy but inexperienced colt from the start to aid stablemate Sierra Leone. Won’t win but could play a key role in deciding who does.
Betting verdict: Toss
4. CORPORATE POWER
(Shug McGaughey, Javier Castellano, 15-1)
Career highlight was winning a listed stakes by a nose in the mud on the Preakness undercard. Brutally difficult spot for his graded-stakes debut. No chance.
Betting verdict: Toss
5. BATTEN DOWN
(Bill Mott, Junior Alvarado, 20-1)
Need-to-lead type chased gamely before settling for a distant third behind Fierceness in the Jim Dandy. If Alvarado can rate him in midpack and save enough energy for the stretch, he could slip into the lower spots of the trifecta and superfecta at big odds.
Betting verdict: Won’t win, but use underneath
6. HONOR MARIE
(Whit Beckman, Tyler Gaffalione, 20-1)
Wise-guy horse in Kentucky Derby was eliminated at the start. Deep closer is 0-for-4 this year, beaten a total of 25¾ lengths. Best scenario: Capitalizes on a pace meltdown and plods up for fourth.
Betting verdict: Toss
7. DORNOCH
(Danny Gargan, Luis Saez, 5-2)
Fast and loves a fight, and gritty stretch runs to beat Mindframe in the Belmont and Haskell were very impressive. Those were by far his career bests, but is he good enough to win three straight Grade 1s?
A victory would all but clinch the division title, but it might be time for a bounce. Got away with a 48-second half-mile in the Haskell, and that won’t happen this time.
Betting verdict: Win contender
8. FIERCENESS
(Todd Pletcher, John Velazquez, 3-1)
Ultimate in-and-outer tries to win back-to-back races for the first time. Will he bounce again? Very talented, but needs more rest than most between races, and would he be in here if stablemate Mindframe were healthy? Won Jim Dandy despite racing erratically in the stretch and losing ground (1½ lengths) in the final furlong.
Unlike Dornoch, he’s never won a stretch battle, and his need to be on or near the lead could be draining late. As Fox analyst Richard Migliore said, “Fierceness can give a punch, but he hasn’t shown he can take a punch.” Not sure he wants to go 1¼ miles.
Betting verdict: Toss
The picks: 1 Sierra Leone 2 Dornoch 3 Batten Down
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
