Nothing says Saratoga like a lucrative grass stakes, and the Spa will present two on Friday — the $400,000 Saratoga Oaks (G2) for 3-year-old fillies and the $500,000 Hall of Fame Stakes (G2) for 3-year-olds.
Cinderella’s Dream is the one to beat in the Saratoga Oaks
Cinderella’s Dream (Oaks) and Neat (Hall of Fame) project as tough favorites but each must handle a few challengers with solid credentials in good betting races.
For those who bet horse racing, here’s a horse-by-horse analysis, from the rail out, with trainer, jockey and odds in parentheses:
$400,000 Saratoga Oaks (G2), 1 3/16 miles, post time 5:10 p.m. ET
1. CINDERELLA’S DREAM
(Charlie Appleby, William Buick, 6-5)
Godolphin filly overcame a slow pace and rocketed the final three-sixteenths in 16 3/5 seconds to win Grade 1 Belmont Oaks. She’s 5-for-6 on turf, losing only in the Group 1 English One Thousand Guineas. Unless she bounces in her second U.S. start, she’ll be very tough.
Betting verdict: The one to beat
2. DANCING N DIXIE
(Mark Casse, Jose Ortiz, 8-1)
Surged wide late in Tepin Stakes last out at Churchill Downs but didn’t beat much in first win in five turf tries. Deep closer is 0-for-3, all close thirds, in graded grass stakes this year.
Betting verdict: Use underneath
3. KATHYNMARISSA
(Rick Dutrow, Jr., Frankie Dettori, 12-1)
Daughter of American Pharoah working well after solid third to Dancing N Dixie in the Tepin. Two strong works at Saratoga, including a 46-second bullet on grass, raise her profile. Must be factored into the mix.
Betting verdict: Live longshot
4. MACANGA
(Rick Dutrow, Jr., John Velazquez, 9-2)
Dutrow’s other runner went wire to wire in two turf wins but is 0-for-3 in stakes. Expect pace wizard Johnny V. to try to set realistic fractions on the controlling speed. Likely pace casualty.
Betting verdict: Toss
5. GREENFINCH
(Aidan O’Brien Ryan Moore, 9-2)
O’Brien-Moore is the world’s best combination, and superstar Moore is in brilliant form. Improving filly wired a listed stakes last time, but it was her first grass win in six tries and the second and third finishers were a combined 2-for-13. She’s 0-for-2 in graded stakes and likely to be overbet due to the connections.
Betting verdict: Toss
6. SEGESTA
(Chad Brown, Irad Ortiz Jr., 7-2)
Segesta was a close second in Belmont Oaks, where Cinderella’s Dream overtook her after a pace duel. Segesta has run big four straight times and could reverse the exacta in the rematch.
Betting verdict: Win contender
7. MOVIN’ ON UP
(Saffie Joseph Jr., Tyler Gaffalione, 20-1)
Makes graded stakes debut after taking allowance for first victory in three turf tries. In over her head.
Betting verdict: Toss
The picks: 1 Cinderella’s Dream 2 Segesta 3 Kathynmarissa
$500,000 National Museum and Racing Hall of Fame Stakes (G2), 1 mile, post time: 5:45 p.m.
1. PLEASE ADVISE
(George Weaver, Flavien Prat, 10-1)
First-time gelding is 0-for-3 in stakes beyond a mile, 0-for-4 in routes. Asking too much.
Betting verdict: Toss
2. BUTTERCREAM BABE
(Mike Maker, Irad Ortiz Jr., 8-1)
Filly facing males for first time is 5-for-8 in the money on grass but 0-for-6 in stakes. Doesn’t class up.
Betting verdict: Toss
3. ZVEREV
(Cherie DeVaux, Jose Ortiz, 4-1)
Makes stakes debut after getting perfect trip in optional claimer for first win in five turf tries. DeVaux on a roll but up against it here.
Betting verdict: Toss
4. NEAT
(Rob Atras, Junior Alvarado, 5-2)
Likely favorite is remarkably consistent (5-for-7 turf, 5-for-6 in routes). Handles any ground, with three wins on firm, two on softer. Final quarter in 22 4/5 seconds last time a big plus.
Betting verdict: Win contender
5. LAGYNOS
(Steve Asmussen, Cristian Torres, 9-2)
Usually close (4-for-5 in the money, just one win on turf), so he’s a teaser. He’s 0-for-4, beaten 10¼ lengths, in grass stakes.
Betting verdict: Use underneath
6. CRYSTAL QUEST
(Michael Trombetta, Javier Castellano, 8-1)
Live longshot has strong late-pace figures and warrior’s pedigree (by Uncle Mo out of a Giant’s Causeway mare). Solid on firm or soft ground.
Betting verdict: Win contender
7. BARKSDALE
(Will Walden, Ramon Vazquez, 15-1)
Need-to-lead sprinter in too deep in grass debut. No chance.
Betting verdict: Toss
8. ARMY OFFICER
(Brad Cox, Frankie Dettori, 7-2)
Course-and-distance winner looked sharp in both grass starts. Competitive figures, excellent connections, should do well in stakes debut.
Betting verdict: Win contender
The picks: 1 Crystal Quest 2 Neat 3 Army Officer
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
