Fountain of Youth Stakes Odds, Betting, Analysis, Picks

Fountain of Youth Stakes Odds, Betting, Analysis, Picks

The $425,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park on Saturday is a key stop on the Road to the Kentucky Derby (G1) that has produced an honor roll of champions.

The 1 1/16-mile test for 3-year-olds is the second of three Derby preps at the South Florida track and offers qualifying points on a sliding scale of 50-25-15-10-5 to the top five finishers.

A solid field of 10 is set to line up for the race first run in 1945 and named for Ponce de León’s mythical search for eternal youth in Florida. The race has a steppingstone to greatness for the likes of 1979 Derby and Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Spectacular Bid, fellow Derby winners Thunder Gulch (1995) and Orb (2013), and last year’s edition launched Godolphin-owned Sovereignty toward victories in the Kentucky Derby (G1), Belmont Stakes (G1) and Travers Stakes (G1).

This year’s renewal brings together a mix of proven Grade 1 form, Derby trail wannabes and several undefeated colts whose ceilings remain unknown.

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Napoleon Solo returns from layoff

Undefeated Napoleon Solo (7-2) makes his long-awaited 3-year-old debut after capturing the Champagne Stakes (G1) at Aqueduct in dominant front-running fashion last fall.

Trainer Chad Summers deliberately skipped the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) to follow a developmental path modeled after last year’s winner.

“We came here with a plan,” Summers said, noting similarities in preparation. “It’s a building block … we’re ready to start his 3-year-old season.”

The colt hasn’t raced in nearly five months, but his tactical speed makes him a major presence from the gate with Kendrick Carmouche aboard leaving from post 7.

Commandment looms large for Brad Cox

Brad Cox, always dangerous in these Derby preps, sends Commandment (the 2-1 morning-line favorite), a decisive winner of the Mucho Macho Man Stakes in January by 6 ¾ lengths.

The son of Into Mischief has improved sharply since breaking his maiden at Churchill Downs and lands leading rider Irad Ortiz, Jr., a signal of confidence from the barn.

Pletcher’s Jackson Hole a rapid developer

WinStar Farm’s $1.3 million purchase Jackson Hole bypassed the juvenile season entirely but has come on fast for Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher, a four-time Fountain of Youth winner.

The Nyquist colt wired an allowance field at this distance in January, showing both stamina and composure, and gets John Velazquez. His upside makes him one of the race’s most intriguing runners.

Solitude Dude brings speed -- and questions

Few horses have been as visually dominant as Solitude Dude, who has won three starts by a combined 21 lengths.

The Swale Stakes winner has done his best work sprinting, using aggressive early speed, and now stretches out around two turns for the first time. Flavien Prat has the call for Saffie Joseph, Jr., whose barn also includes Bravaro, runner-up in the Holy Bull (G3).

If Solitude Dude carries his speed, he could dictate the entire race shape.

More undefeated talent enters the mix

Bill Mott sends out Chief Wallabee, a sharp debut winner and another lightly raced colt trying to make the jump into graded stakes company.

The rest of the field adds depth and potential chaos, including Talkin, Rockies Balboa, Global Aviator, Bull by the Horns and Lost Money -- colts still searching for breakout performances at the right moment.

Pace picture: Honest, maybe hot

With Napoleon Solo and Solitude Dude both naturally forward, and Jackson Hole capable of attending the pace, the Fountain of Youth projects to feature legitimate early fractions rather than the dawdling setups sometimes seen in February preps.

That dynamic could favor a colt with tactical versatility rather than a need-the-lead profile.

What’s at stake

Beyond the $425,000 purse, the race awards 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the winner, often enough to secure a starting spot in Louisville.

Just as importantly, the Fountain of Youth traditionally answers the season’s first big question: Which 3-year-olds are still precocious and Classic horses?

This year’s edition feels like a proving ground. With multiple unbeaten runners, established graded winners, and several colts trying two turns for the first time, the Fountain of Youth could dramatically reshape the early Derby picture rather than clarify it.

Post time for the Fountain of Youth is 6:11 p.m. ET, the 14th and final race on a card that includes a total of eight graded stakes, including the Davona Dale Stakes (G2), a Kentucky Oaks points qualifier.

The picks: 1 Commandment 2 Jackson Hole 3 Napoleon Solo

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The field for the $425,000 Fountain of Youth stakes (G2), from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, odds:

1 Jackson Hole (John Velazquez, Todd Pletcher), 8-1

2 Rockies Balboa (Luis Saez, Dale Romans), 20-1

3 Talkin (Joel Rosario, Danny Gargan), 15-1

4 Commandment (Irad Ortiz, Jr., Brad Cox), 2-1

5 Bravaro (Tyler Gaffalione, Saffie Joseph, Jr.), 8-1

6 Chief Wallabee (Junior Alvarado, Bill Mott), 9-2

7 Napoleon Solo (Kendrick Carmouche, Chad Summers), 7-2

8 Bull by the Horns (Micah Husbands, Saffie Joseph, Jr.), 30-1

9 Global Aviator (Joe Bravo, Rohan Crichton) SCRATCHED

10 Solitude Dude (Flavien Prat, Saffie Joseph, Jr.), 5-1

11 Lost Money (Javier Castellano, Juan Arias), 50-1

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