Blame Stakes Odds: Mystik Dan Seeks First Win Since Kentucky Derby

Once again, Mystik Dan attempts to become the first Kentucky Derby (G1) winner since 2021 to post a victory after winning the Run for the Roses.

Mystik Dan. Renee Torbit/Coady Photo.

Mystik Dan won the Derby in 2024 and is 0-for-5 since as the 4-year-old is set to run in the $275,000 Blame Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs on Saturday. The race is one of five Grade 3 stakes races on the 11-race card.

Sovereignty, who won the Derby on May 3, skipped the Preakness Stakes (G1) and makes his post-Derby return in the Belmont Stakes (G1) on June 7.

It’s an odd statistic, but Derby winners from 2022-2025 are a combined 0-for-14.

In 2023, Mage won the Derby, then went 0-for-3 before being retired. Rich Strike won the 2022 Derby, then went 0-for-6 and was retired.

Mandaloun won the 2021 Derby via disqualification of Medina Spirit and went on to win the Pegasus Stakes, the Haskell Stakes (G1), and the Louisiana Stakes (G3) before finishing out his career 0-for-3.

With that, Mystik Dan is the third-betting choice at 4-1 in a field of 10 going 1 1/8 miles in a steppingstone race for the Stephen Foster Stakes (G1) on June 28.

Last out, Mystik Dan was beaten by a nose by Saudi Crown in the Lake Ouachita Stakes on May 3 at Oaklawn Park. Trainer Kenny McPeek was encouraged with the effort and Brian Hernandez, Jr., is back to ride after missing the Lake Ouachita due to his Derby Day mounts.

Post Time, a top-three finisher in 16 career starts for trainer Brittany Russell, including 10 victories, is the 3-1 favorite. In his 5-year-old debut, the gray won an optional claimer by 13 ¼ lengths at Laurel on May 3. The son of Frosted will be ridden by Sheldon Russell leaving from post 9, perhaps a good draw for the closer.

Most Wanted, trained by Brad Cox, is the second choice on the morning line at 7-2. The 4-year-old ran second to Fierceness in the Alysheba Stakes (G2) on May 2 at Churchill Downs.

Hall of Fame, third in the Alysheba for trainer Steve Asmussen, is 8-1. 

Most Wanted, though, was expected to be scratched as he is cross-entered in in a June 1 race at Churchill Downs. Other scratches could include Best Actor and Katonah.

Mystik Dan ran second in the Preakness and eighth in the Belmont Stakes (G1). He was off his game in finishing sixth in the Malibu Stakes (G1) on Dec. 26 at Santa Anita and ninth in the Pegasus World Cup (G1) on Jan. 25 at Gulfstream Park.

Post time for the Blame Stakes is 5:27 p.m. ET

The picks: 1 Post Time 2 Mystik Dan 3 Antiquarian

The field for the $275,000 Blame Stakes (G3), from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, odds:

1 Katonah (Gerardo Corrales, Doug O'Neill), 20-1

2 Alexander Helios (Irad Ortiz, Jr., Saffie Joseph, Jr. (6-1)

3 Antiquarian (John Velazquez, Todd Pletcher), 15-1

4 Mystik Dan (Brian Hernandez, Jr., Kenny McPeek), 4-1

5 Best Actor (Rafael Bejarano, Ed Moger, Jr.), 30-1

6 Hall of Fame (Jose Ortiz, Steve Asmussen), 8-1

7 Most Wanted (Florent Geroux, Brad Cox), 7-2

8 Banishing (Flavien Prat, David Jacobson), 9-2

9 Post Time (Sheldon Russell, Brittany Russell), 3-1

10 Tennessee Lamb (Luis Saez, George Arnold II), 15-1

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