Bet the Big A on Friday: Odds, Picks, Analysis for Pilgrim Stakes, Futurity

Youngsters on the turf headline the Belmont-at-Aqueduct Friday card in a pair of stakes with big implications.

The $200,000 Pilgrim Stakes (G2) at 1 1/16 miles and the $175,000 Futurity Stakes (G3) at 6 furlongs are both Breeders’ Cup Challenge “Win and You’re In” contests, giving the pair of victorious 2-year-olds a fees-paid berth in the corresponding stakes in the season-ending championships.

The pressure will be ratcheted-up for the largely untested juveniles. Let’s take a closer look at the contenders most likely to prevail.

Bottas. NYRA Photo.

Pilgrim Stakes (G2), 1 1/16 miles, turf, 2-year-olds (post time 4:50 p.m. ET)

The Pilgrim winner punches his ticket to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) at Del Mar on Oct. 31.

Bottas (the 2-1 morning-line favorite) steps up following an impressive debut win on Travers Stakes Day at Saratoga at this same distance. He rallied from last to win by 2 ¼ lengths, and lands in a spot loaded with early speed that should favor his late running style.

He has had plenty of time to regroup and figures to improve second time out.

“That was a very impressive performance,” trainer Miguel Clement said. “We do believe he has improved since his debut.” 

He remained in Saratoga to train for this event and Clement likes what he sees in the cool morning drills.

“He is doing very well,” said Clement. “I’m very much excited to see him run. His works have been encouraging, and we are expecting a big performance.

“Mentally, he is more mature now. He is really starting to understand the routine that we are asking of him. We are seeing another dimension in his turf works at the moment, so this is exciting.”

Noble Dynasty (9-2) will be making his third start for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott and is also stepping up to the stakes ranks following a maiden win. While Bottas figures to rally in the lane, Noble Dynasty has the ability to closely stalk the pace and launch his bid from a more forward position.

Those are the tactics he employed in the victory last month at Aqueduct, overcoming post 11 to immediately put himself in contention.

Trainer Todd Pletcher owns the Pilgrim Stakes record with six wins. He will saddle the pair in Scope (10-1) and Teleport (12-1). This is the second race for both, and they squared off in their debuts at Saratoga.

It was an eventful race as they finished 1-2 after trading bumps in the lane with Scope prevailing. The stewards reversed the outcome, elevating Teleport to the victory with Scope placed second.

While technically still a maiden, Scope was the better of the duo that day and should be a factor with a cleaner trip.

Which brings us to …

The picks: 1 Bottas 2 Noble Dynasty 3 Scope

The field for the $200,000 Pilgrim Stakes (G2), from the rail out, with jockeytrainer, odds:

1 Ball of Fire (Sam Marin, Joe Orseno), 20-1
2 Heeere's Johnny (Javier Castellano, Ray Handal), 6-1
3 Teleport (Ricardo Santana, Jr., Todd Pletcher), 12-1
4 Bottas (Manny Franco, Miguel Clement), 2-1
5 Truman's Commander (Chris Elliott, Mark Casse), 30-1
6 Scope (Kendrick Carmouche, Todd Pletcher), 10-1
7 Baytown Dreamer (Ben Curtis, Paul McEntee), 30-1
8 Noble Dynasty (Junior Alvarado, Bill Mott), 9-2
9 Capital Partner (Dylan Davis, Chad Brown), 6-1
10 Repentless (Adam Beschizza, Kelsey Danner), 8-1
11 Let's Be Frank (Joel Rosario, Mike Maker), 10-1

Futurity Stakes (G3), 6 furlongs, turf, 2-year-olds (post time 3:51 p.m.)

The Futurity is the pathway to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1).

Trainer Wesley Ward entered the duo of Outfielder (5-2) and Longshoreman (8-1) but only Longshoreman is expected to run here.

Outfielder was cross entered in a Saturday race at Keeneland and is slated to run there.

That leaves the speedy Longshoreman, shipping in following a mid-pack finish in the Juvenile Sprint Stakes at Kentucky Downs. He is the only runner in the field with stakes experience on grass, potentially a huge edge over his less experienced rivals.

“He got away a step slow and got checked and checked and checked - inside and outside,” Ward said. “I give him a real valid excuse for losing that last race. It's not often you get beat like that and say, ‘he could have won.’ But that race is one of them. When they opened the gates, the trouble started.”

The mystery horse here is Belgian (7-2), making his stakes debut after a blow-out debut win by 11 lengths at Saratoga. The race was originally scheduled for the turf but was rained off onto the sloppy main track.

Yes, he won for fun but faced only three rivals and still must prove his grass credentials.

No Pressure (5-1) made a bold late run his debut to miss by only a neck after encountering trouble at the quarter pole in his debut.

For those who bet horse racing ...

The picks: 1 Longshoreman 2 Belgian 3 No Pressure

The field for the $175,000 Futurity (G3), from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, odds:

1 Outfielder (Frankie Dettori, Wesley Ward), 5-2
2 Channel the Music (Sam Marin, Jorge Duarte, Jr.), 12-1
3 Intricate Spirit (Joel Rosario, Miguel Clement), 4-1
4 Longshoreman (Manny Franco, Wesley Ward), 8-1
5 Expressway (Junior Alvarado, Bill Mott), 10-1
6 Attfield (Dylan Davis, Tom Morley), 6-1
7 Belgian (Javier Castellano, George Weaver), 7-2
8 No Pressure (Ricardo Santana, Jr., Philip Antonacci), 5-1

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