Belmont Thursday: Joe Hirsch Turf Odds; Horse-by-Horse Analysis; Picks

Joe Hirsch was more than an outstanding writer for the Daily Racing Form. He was an ambassador for the sport whose influence extended to Europe, and he loved and promoted international racing. Appropriately, in 2004, about four years before he died, the Turf Classic (G1) was renamed in his honor.

Since its start in 1977, the race has brought together the best grass horses from North America and Europe. Among its world-class winners were Waya (1979), Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1) heroine and 1983 Horse of the Year All Along and the immortal gelding John Henry.

On Thursday, Belmont Park will host the 50th running of the $500,000 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, a 1½-mile test of stamina. The race was rescheduled from Saturday after heavy rain and high winds blasted New York over the weekend. Last year’s winner, Rebel’s Romance, is a two-time winner of the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1). Main Sequence (2014) and English Channel (2007) also swept both stakes.

El Cordobes. NYRA Photo.

This year’s field of seven lacks a standout, but it’s a challenging handicapping puzzle that should pay well if you can figure it out. There are four horses who haven’t won at 1½ miles. There’s one making his first start in the United States, one who hasn’t raced since March and another who’s been off since February. Complicating matters is the rain-softened ground.

Post time is 5:18 p.m. ET Thursday.

Here’s a horse-by-horse analysis of the field from the rail out, with trainer, rider and odds in parentheses:

1 El Cordobes (Flavien Prat, Charles Appleby, 2-1)

Loves the distance: three wins at 1½ miles and third last year in the Turf Classic and the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1). Negative: Seven-month layoff off fifth-place dud in only race this year.

Betting verdict: Use underneath

2 Far Bridge (Miguel Clement, John Velazquez, 6-1)

Clement expressed concern about the 6-year-old’s six-month layoff but likes how he’s training. “The question is, is he 100-percent ready to run his ‘A’ race?” he said. “I’m not entirely sure, but he’s top class and giving us every indication he’s back to his best.”

Far Bridge won off breaks of six and four months, and his 4-for-7 record at the distance is a major plus, but will he be rusty?

Betting verdict: Win contender

3 Asbury Park (Chad Brown, Manny Franco, 15-1)

Weaker of Brown’s entries doesn’t class up with these. Won a Grade 2 going 1 3/8 miles last year, but the runner-up is 2-for-15.

Betting verdict: Toss

4 Pride of Arras (Ralph Beckett, Rossa Ryan, 7-2)

Shipper from sharp English trainer is in excellent form. Prepped for this with 1½-mile win over synthetic after solid second against excellent 3-year-old Item in a Group 2 at York. Won a 12-furlong Group 2 at York last year.

“He particularly likes going left on a flat track, so Belmont should suit him really well,” Beckett said. “I always try to take horses I think will [do their best] in America, and I think that’s definitely the case with him.” 

Betting verdict: Win contender

5 Minaret Station (Will Walden, Jose Ortiz, 4-1)

Just missed in his last two – third by half a length in a Grade 2 (1 3/8 miles), second by three-quarters of a length in 1½-mile Christophe Clement Stakes (G1). Negatives: Lost four in a row and winless past 1 1/16 miles.

Betting verdict: Use underneath

6 Program Trading (Chad Brown, Ricardo Santana, Jr. 6-1)

Six-year-old ridgling is 7-for-16 overall and has back class with three Grade 1 wins in 2023 and 2024. Problem: He lost in his last seven tries at the Grade 1 level and hasn’t beaten a top-class field since May 2024.

Betting verdict: Use underneath

7 Fort George (Ed Walker, Kieran Shoemark, 9-2)

Ran third and second in only U.S. starts this summer, and figures were solid. Consistent (10-for-11 in the money on turf); second this winter to Rebel’s Romance going 1½ miles. Fits with these, and maybe it’s his turn to win a big one.

Betting verdict: Win contender

The picks: 1 Pride of Arras 2 Fort George 3 Far Bridge

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