The biggest 2025 Kentucky Derby prep races are still ahead, but six-time winner Bob Baffert and four-time winner D. Wayne Lukas are already sitting pretty seven weeks before the Run for the Roses.
A pair of Lukas 3-year-olds moved into the latest usracing.com 2025 Kentucky Derby Top 10 – American Promise and Caldera.
American Promise is in the mix for the first time at No. 10 after an impressive 7 ¾-length victory in the Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs. He’s e’s joined by stablemate Caldera at No. 6. The imposing gray colt, edged at the wire by Getaway Car in the Sunland Derby, is a top contender in Saturday’s $1 million Louisiana Derby (G2), the start of Kentucky Derby point qualifiers of 100-50-25-15-10 to the top five finishers.
Basically, a top 3 finish in these 200 total points races would be enough to get into the gate in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field limited to 20 starters.
Baffert, meanwhile, has dominated the top 10 all season with Robert B. Lewis (G3) winner and 2-year-old champ Citizen Bull still No. 1. Barnes, beaten for the first time by Journalism in the San Felipe Stakes (G2), is No. 4, while Getaway Car dropped out after a fifth in the Virginia Derby.
However, Getaway Car still has enough points to make the Derby field, and Baffert also trains 2025 Kentucky Derby prospects Madaket Road, Rodriguez, and Gaming.
American Promise earned 50 points with his win, moving to fifth on the 2025 Kentucky Derby leaderboard (55 points). Caldera is 36th with 10 points. Citizen Bull is third on the leaderboard with 60 points, while Barnes is 26th with 18.75 points.
Lukas, 89, is optimistic about the future of American Promise.
“This is a typical case of a horse that was in a growth spurt like he is, big and rangy,” Lukas said of American Promise. “He didn’t actually know what was expected, like a big, rangy kid. But the last 30 days, he has really come around and I expect him to get better the next 30 days.”
In addition to the Louisiana Derby, the other significant points race on Saturday is the $777,000 Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) on the Tapeta surface at Turfway Park.
On March 29, two more 100-50-25-15-10 pointers were on tap: the Florida Derby (G1) and the Arkansas Derby (G1). The final barrage of big qualifiers comes April 5 with the Wood Memorial (G2), the Blue Grass Stakes (G1), and the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Also on April 5 is the UAE Derby (G2), a Euro-Mideast Derby points qualifier with 200 total points.
Jockeys are listed from the horse’s most recent race.
Worked 6 furlongs in 1:12.00 on March 17 at Santa Anita … It was the front-running colt’s fifth breeze since winning the Robert B. Lewis on Feb. 1 ... Showdown with Journalism looms in Santa Anita Derby, but there are options (Florida Derby, Arkansas Derby) … Pedigree: Into Mischief-No Joke, by Distorted Humor … Next start: TBD … Derby points: 60 (3rd) … Kentucky Derby future wager odds (pool 5): 9-1.
Worked 4 furlongs in 48.20 on March 16 at Santa Anita in first of three works before Santa Anita Derby … Impressive win over Barnes in San Felipe on March 1 has colt a 5-1 favorite in Derby future wager … After finishing third in debut, he’s won three in a row … Pedigree: Curlin-Mopotism, by Uncle Mo … Next start: Santa Anita Derby, Santa Anita, April 5 … Derby points: 47.5 (7th) … Kentucky Derby future wager odds: 5-1.
Worked 5 furlongs in 1:01.80 on March 15 at Payson Park, his first work since last-to-first win in Fountain of Youth ... Pedigree: Into Mischief-Crowned, by Bernardini … Next start: Florida Derby, Gulfstream Park, March 29 ... Derby points: 60 (4th) … Kentucky Derby future wager odds: 7-1.
Worked 6 furlongs in company in 1:11.80 on March 17 at Santa Anita … Options include Arkansas Derby and Oaklawn Derby for final prep … Pedigree: Into Mischief-All American Dream, by American Pharoah … Next start: TBD … Derby points: 18.75 (26th) … Kentucky Derby future wager odds: 15-1.
Worked 5 furlongs in 1:02.00 on March 14 at Oaklawn Park … $70,000 purchase is 5-for-5 over dirt tracks for a 72-year-old trainer with first Derby contender ... Pedigree: Coal Front-Wolfblade, by Midshipman … Next start: Arkansas Derby, Oaklawn Park, March 29 ... Derby points: 70 (1st) … Kentucky Derby future wager odds: 14-1.
Yes, Lukas’ American Promise won the Virginia Derby, but this imposing gray son of Liam’s Map just missed against Getaway Car in Sunland Derby on Feb. 16 … Believe this colt is ready for a huge run on Saturday to get into the Derby field … Owned by My Racehorse, composed of hundreds of partners, and purchased for $500,000 Ocala Breeders’ sale for 2-year-olds in training … Worked 5 furlongs in 59.60 on March 14 at Oaklawn, fastest of 34 at the distance … Pedigree: Liam’s Map-Send Me On My Way, by Tiznow … Next start: Louisiana Derby, Fair Grounds, March 22 … Derby points: 10 (36th) … Kentucky Derby future wager odds: 18-1.
Worked 4 furlongs in 49.40 on March 11 at Oaklawn, 13th of 28 at the distance … Deep closer made massive runs for third in the Rebel and second in the Southwest ... Pedigree: Tapit-Distorted Music, by Distorted Humor ... Next start: Arkansas Derby, Oaklawn Park, March 29 ... Derby points: 29 (13th) ... Kentucky Derby future wager odds: 22-1.
Remains a Derby contender following significant effort in Fountain of Youth, getting nailed at the wire by Sovereignty … Worked 4 furlongs in 49.40 at Palm Beach Downs … Pedigree: Maclean's Music- Proportionality, by Discreet Cat ... Next start: Florida Derby, Gulfstream Park, March 29 ... Derby points: 25 (18th) ... Kentucky Derby future wager odds: 65-1.
Waiting to see how the Wood works for colt, who won Withers Stakes on Feb. 1 and is 2-for-2 under Dutrow … He Needs a solid effort to get into Derby field, likely a top 4 finish in his final prep, which seems likely … Pedigree: Practical Joke-Pow Wow Wow, by Indian Charlie ... Next start: Wood Memorial, Aqueduct, April 5 ... Derby points: 20 (22nd) ... Kentucky Derby future wager odds: 51-1.
Ran away from the field and won the Virginia Derby by 7 ¾ lengths on March 15, giving four-time Kentucky Derby winner Lukas yet another contender as he prepares for his 31st Derby … He’s won 2-of-9 starts … Owned by BC Stables … Purchased for $750,000 at the Keeneland yearling sale … Pedigree: Justify-Tapella, by Tapit … Next start: TBD … Derby points: 55 (5th) … Kentucky Derby future wager odds: 10-1 (all other 3-year-olds).
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
