Betting on Ted Noffey was lucrative last year, when he went 4-for-4, including Grade 1 victories in the Breeders’ Futurity and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. His perfect 2-year-old season made him the winter book favorite for the Kentucky Derby (G1).
Trainer Todd Pletcher was hopeful he would have his third Derby winner, and he was considering the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) and the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream as his next targets. The son of super sire Into Mischief was the 6-1 second choice to “All Other Horses” at 7-2 in the first pool of the Derby Future Wager. All that cash was forfeited in late January when Pletcher announced the colt would be sidelined indefinitely because of bone bruising.
The lesson: Even when a horse isn’t running, it can cost you money.
Ted Noffey will make his long-awaited return Saturday in the $200,000 Dwyer Stakes, a one-turn mile, at Belmont Park. He’s the only graded-stakes winner in a field of 10 and was made the 8-5 morning line favorite.
Pletcher’s long-term stats off long layoffs are excellent, and if Ted Noffey runs the way he did as a 2-year-old, his 3-year-old debut will be a success. He’s been training steadily for three months, and his last three workouts over the training track at Belmont were outstanding. His best one came on Oct. 24, when he breezed 5 furlongs in 1:01 2/5.
“We’ve got him as fit as we can without running him,” said Stu Hampson, Pletcher’s New York-based assistant. “The rest is up to him. He’s breezed only on the training track here, but we’ve been happy with what we’ve seen. He seems to be working closely to the Ted Noffey that we knew last year as the champion 2-year-old. Now we just have to hope he shows up and replicates that in the afternoon.”
On paper his main threat appears to be the Chad Brown-trained Sea Strike, who had created some buzz for the Travers Stakes (G1) with a big-figure, 8¼-length runaway in the listed Curlin Stakes. Sea Strike (2-1 morning line) was bet down to 7-2 for the Travers but faded to sixth after stalking the pace into the stretch.
Sea Strike hasn’t run since the Travers, where he didn’t validate Brown’s prerace enthusiasm. “I’d say the horse has a big chance,” he said. “He runs fast numbers. The horse is very talented. He’s got a lot of things going for him.”
Maybe he’s not a 10-furlong horse, so turning back to a one-turn mile could make a difference.
Other possibilities include Bravaro (15-1), Overtime Rules (15-1), and Igniter (6-1). Bravaro, a New York-bred trained by Saffie Joseph, Jr., has a win and a second going a one-turn mile. Overtime Rules, trained by Arnaud Delacour, wire-to-wire over 7 furlongs at Keeneland.
Igniter endured a troubled trip in the 1 1/8-mile Pennsylvania Derby (G1), when he was bumped at the start and steadied before finishing fifth. Trainer Rick Dutrow, Jr. cuts him back to a mile, where he’s 2-for-2.
“I’m looking forward to running him here,” Dutrow said. “This will be another tough, tough spot, but he’s doing fantastic.”
If Ted Noffey is 80% of his old self, the others will be trying to complete the exacta.
1 Bravaro (Paco Lopez, Saffie Joseph, Jr.), 15-1
2 Overtime Rules (Samy Marin, Arnaud Delacour), 15-1
3 Stimulate (Junior Alvarado, Bill Mott), 6-1
4 White Smoke Rising (Kendrick Carmouche, Charlton Baker), 20-1
5 Stop the Car (Dylan Davis, Brendah Walsh), 20-1
6 Ted Noffey (John Velazquez, Todd Pletcher), 8-5
7 Decisive Win (Antonio Fresu, Doug O'Neill), 15-1
8 Igniter (Manny Franco, Rick Dutrow, Jr.), 8-1
9 Sea Strike (Flavien Prat, Chad Brown), 2-1
10 Mailata (Mychel Sanchez, Butch Reid, Jr.), 30-1
Ed McNamara is an award-winning racing writer who has covered the sport since 1981 for The Bergen (N.J.) Record, Newsday, ESPN, Thorocap, and USRacing. He is the author of Cajun Racing: From the Bush Tracks to the Triple Crown and Racing Around the World, and a contributor to The Most Glorious Crown and The Racetracks of America. He has also written for racing publications in France and Italy.
