The Breeders' Cup Classic (G1) is supposed to be the grand finale, a $7 million showdown that determines Horse of the Year. Saturday's 1 1/4-mile epic at Keeneland is all that.
The 43rd Breeders' Cup begins with Future Stars Friday – five races for 2-year-olds – and concludes on Championships Saturday with nine races, culminating with the Classic as the 12th race-- post time of 6:16 p.m. ET (NBC, Peacock).
The Classic features a field of seven (Magnitude was scratched on Thursday) with 16 Grade 1 wins, including the past two editions of the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes, as well as the Preakness Stakes, Travers Stakes, Whitney Stakes and Pacific Classic. Last year's Classic hero, globetrotting Forever Young, returns to defend his title against Sovereignty, Golden Tempo, Knightsbridge, Napoleon Solo, The Puma and Japanese shipper T O Password. The only one without a Grade 1 win is T O Password, who was a creditable fifth behind Sovereignty in the 2025 Derby.
Godolphin will try to snap its 0-for-19 Classic slump with the uncoupled duo of Sovereignty and Knightsbridge. Bill Mott, who trains both, explained why Knightsbridge is skipping the Dirt Mile, in which he would have been heavily favored.
"One of the things it boils down to is Godolphin would really like to win the Classic," Mott said this week. "We probably have a better chance of doing that by having two horses in there instead of just one. We vacillated about separating them, but I think they both fit.
"We would love to run 1-2 in the Classic."
Preakness winner Napoleon Solo also passed on the Dirt Mile (G1) to aim high in the Classic. "Maybe the Dirt Mile might be a little bit of an easier spot," trainer Chad Summers said in a major understatement. "But we've never been one to duck anybody and we're not going to start now."
Only T O Password appears overmatched, making this one of the deepest and most talented Classics ever. Expect to see Knightsbridge up front early, with Napoleon Solo chasing. Forever Young won't be far behind, and Sovereignty, The Puma and Golden Tempo will be at the back of the pack. Can Knightsbridge hold off the late surges of Forever Young and Sovereignty? If he gets comfortable on the lead and relaxes, that could happen.
What's he doing in this race? He hasn't run since early August, he's 0-for-2 at 1 1/4 miles and never faced a field remotely as tough as this one.
After losing his first two starts as a 4-year-old, last year's Horse of the Year redeemed himself by dominating the Whitney Stakes (G1) by 4 3/4 lengths. He's 3-for-3 at 10 furlongs and should sit a nice trip, saving ground while tracking what projects as a fast pace set by his stablemate Knightsbridge, Magnitude and Napoleon Solo. He's training well and Mott is exuding confidence. Very dangerous.
The Derby and Belmont hero locked up the 3-year-old Eclipse Award with his last-to-first charges at Churchill Downs and Saratoga. He's 2-for-3 going 1 1/4 miles, and forgive his blah third in the Travers, when he may not have been fully cranked up. DeVaux on her best horse ever: "It's his first time against older horses, and he has to do some progressing. We're ultraconfident." Asking him to improve enough to beat superstars Forever Young and Sovereignty is problematical.
Ended his 0-for-3 slump in Grade 1 races with narrow victory over so-so field in the Pennsylvania Derby, which was a Grade 1 in name only. Finished behind Napoleon Solo in the Haskell and Travers. Solid finisher, but overall, he's been a tease horse.
His workmanlike win over a weak field in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) amounted to a lucrative workout in the afternoon. Reportedly training well, and projects for a good trip stalking a solid pace. The leading active money earner ($32.3 million) has never been off the board in 16 starts, and he's the best main-track distance horse in the world.
Unlike his stablemate Sovereignty, this guy does his best work on the lead. His pace figures say he should have no trouble getting there, and he might not be caught. Neither of the other speeds, Napoleon Solo and Magnitude, is as quick early. If there's a speed bias on Saturday, which often occurs at Keeneland, you may see this 5-year-old in the winner's circle. He's training brilliantly after runaways by 10 and 6 1/4 lengths. At 9-2 he could be the value play of the day.
I salute his connections for taking a shot, but if I owned him, he'd be in the Dirt Mile, which he could win, especially with Knightsbridge in the Classic. He got 1 3/16 miles in slow time against subpar rivals in the Preakness, but it appears as if he doesn't want more than 1 1/8 miles. Will be fading in upper stretch.
Ed McNamara is an award-winning racing writer who has covered the sport since 1981 for The Bergen (N.J.) Record, Newsday, ESPN, Thorocap, and USRacing. He is the author of Cajun Racing: From the Bush Tracks to the Triple Crown and Racing Around the World, and a contributor to The Most Glorious Crown and The Racetracks of America. He has also written for racing publications in France and Italy.
