Favorites have won a hefty 20 of the 42 runnings of the $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1). There’s little reason to suspect the chalky trend will be broken on Friday at Keeneland.
Emphatic is the clear-cut 9-5 morning-line favorite to continue the pattern. She will be one of the shorter-price choices over the course of Breeders’ Cup weekend, which begins with five races for 2-year-olds on Future Stars Friday.
The Nyquist filly comes by the status honestly for trainer Brendan Walsh. She is 3-for-3 in a stellar career that started with a 6-furlong maiden win at Colonial Downs. Next stop was Monmouth Park for the ungraded Sorority Stakes. That was where she demonstrated the ability to handle two turns in a 5 ¼ length score.
Then came the tour de force: a contested but solid win in the Alcibiades Stakes (G1) at Keeneland. When Summer Starlet came out of the Alcibiades with an injury that sent her to the sidelines, Emphatic assumed the unquestioned role of Juvenile Fillies favorite.
Emphatic checks all the handicapping angles: a successful race over the track, speed figures that improve dramatically with every race and the proven ability to handle this 1 1/16-mile distance.
“We’ve always liked her,” Walsh said. “When one goes 3-for-3 or wins a Grade 1, they exceed what you expected. She’s always come across as being a very nice filly. Never really has put a foot wrong. It seems like she’s going the right way mentally and physically. So, we’re in a good spot with her, I think.”
Walsh will get no argument here.
Emphatic has shown the ability to rate off the pace or contest the lead. She is game, any way they want to play it.
Domain Expansion (6-1) and Miss Monica (5-2), a pair of California-based fillies, look like the prime competition.
Domain Expansion earned her way here with a Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” victory in the Oak Leaf Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita for trainer Lenny Powell in only her second start.
She debuted on turf, finishing second, but really stepped up with the switch to the main track for the Oak Leaf. The speed figures suggest she will have to take another major step forward to handle Emphatic.
Trainer Bob Baffert checks in with Miss Monica, a perfect 2-for-2 but a question mark at the distance. Her easy victory in the 7-furlong Del Mar Debutante (G1) was her longest race so far. She’s fast, but is she durable around two turns?
Trainers Todd Pletcher, Mark Casse and Brad Cox had two horses each entered: Badittude (30-1) and Life Changing (30-1) for Pletcher; Lexi's Charm (15-1) and Voyager (12-1) for Casse; Scarlett Begonia (20-1) and Foxiest (15-1) for Cox.
Post time for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies will be 3:35 p.m. ET with TV coverage on USA Network and Peacock.
Time now for the selections. The payoff on Emphatic won’t be appealing to price shoppers, but we can’t ignore the obvious.
1 Scarlett Begonia (Manny Franco, Brad Cox), 20-1
2 Domain Expansion (Adrian Escobedo, Lenny Powell), 6-1
3 Foxiest (Junior Alvarado, Brad Cox), 15-1
4 Rum Twist (John Velazquez, Mark Hennig), 15-1
5 Miss Monica (Flavien Prat, Bob Baffert), 5-2
6 Revenge of the Sis (Edgard Zayas, George Weaver), 20-1
7 Lexi's Charm (Jose Ortiz, Mark Casse), 15-1
8 Manuka Honey (Luis Saez, Brian Lynch), 10-1
9 Badittude (Joel Rosario, Todd Pletcher), 30-1
10 Emphatic (Tyler Gaffalione, Brendan Walsh), 9-5
11 Voyager (Javier Castellano, Mark Casse), 12-1
12 Life Changing (Juan Hernandez, Todd Pletcher), 30-1
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
