All of the other 3-year-olds are chasing the relentless colt who comes from far behind. Golden Tempo's late surges to win the Kentucky Derby (G1) and the Belmont Stakes (G1) have made him everybody's moving target for the rest of the season. Can anybody catch him?
They won't have the opportunity to do that until Saratoga runs the 1 1/4-mile Travers Stakes (G1) on Aug. 29. Cherie DeVaux is training her division leader up to the race, whose traditional prep, the 1 1/8-mile Jim Dandy Stakes (G2), is Saturday (post time 5:44 p.m. ET) at the Spa. Four of the last five Travers champions also won the Jim Dandy.
A field of only five will try to raise their profiles this weekend, headed by two horses who came up short in the Derby and the Belmont. Commandment ran second in the Triple Crown finale after a tough-trip seventh at Churchill Downs, and Renegade endured a near miss in the Derby before finishing a blah third in the Belmont at Saratoga.
Both colts burned a lot of win money, and at least one of them will do it again Saturday. They've been teasers who promised more than what they were able to give and have a lot to prove.
As Renegade's trainer, Todd Pletcher, said, “At this stage, we need to run the table to have any chance to unseat Golden Tempo. If we were lucky enough to do something like that, you could make an argument.”
Renegade was assigned post 3 and is 7-5 in the morning line, which was revealed on Wednesday.
Brad Cox, who trains Commandment (post 5, 6-5 favorite), was encouraged by his Belmont, in which he trailed Golden Tempo by 1 1/4 lengths.
“His only real blemish was the Derby, but aside from that he's been ultra-consistent,” Cox said. “He gave us confidence leading up to the Belmont that he was going to run a big race, and he did. We've seen more of the same since then.”
Commandment's last two workouts at Cox's Churchill base were strong. He breezed 5 furlongs in 1:00.80 on July 25, a week after a bullet work in :59.40.
“I'm super pleased with what he's done since the Belmont,” Cox said, “and I think he's set up for a big race.”
To improve his focus, especially on the turns, Commandment will run with blinkers for the first time.
Like Cox, Pletcher expressed optimism about improvement in the Jim Dandy. “Renegade is much better now than he was going into the Belmont,” he said. “I felt like it took him a little while to bounce back from the Derby.”
The pace scenario doesn't favor Commandment or Renegade, who come from behind. Neither has to worry about Asked and Answered (post 2, 30-1), an 0-for-6 maiden who doesn't belong in the race. Silent Tactic (post 4, 6-1), another deep closer, hasn't raced since finishing second to Renegade in the Arkansas Derby (G2) on March 28. His weak speed figures and four-month layoff are major negatives.
That leaves Chip Honcho (post 1, 3-1), who broke a four-race losing streak last time out in the Ohio Derby (G3). His early-pace numbers are nothing special, but they're better than those of his four rivals, so he looks like the frontrunner by default. Problem: He fails the class test. He's 0-for-3 at 9 furlongs or longer, losing ground in the final furlong each time, and he's 0-for-4 in Grade 1 and Grade 2s.
So, what's the win bet? My best guess is that the blinkers will help Commandment get first run on Renegade, who will chase him to the wire but come up short. Chip Honcho will backpedal to third.
Ed McNamara is an award-winning racing writer who has covered the sport since 1981 for The Bergen (N.J.) Record, Newsday, ESPN, Thorocap, and USRacing. He is the author of Cajun Racing: From the Bush Tracks to the Triple Crown and Racing Around the World, and a contributor to The Most Glorious Crown and The Racetracks of America. He has also written for racing publications in France and Italy.
