At least Bob Baffert has a chance to win a record-setting seventh Kentucky Derby (G1). Potente will far from the betting favorite, but the Baffert name alone will likely shorten his odds. However, don’t totally dismiss this $2.4 million Into Mischief colt. He may have finished second in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), but he fought So Happy throughout the stretch and previously dug in late to win the San Felipe Stakes (G2). Like most of the field, the big question is whether this front-runner can stay tough for 1 ¼ miles.
So far, Potente has lived up to his name. He’s big, he’s strong, and he’s won two of three races, including the San Felipe Stakes (G2), with a runner-up finish in the Santa Anita Derby (G1).
The resume is not perfect, but “he’s getting fitter and getting more experience. He’ll be going to Kentucky.”
Those words from six-time Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert came after the Santa Anita Derby. So Happy won by 2 ¾ lengths, but Baffert and jockey Juan Hernandez were encouraged by the effort.
“He broke beautifully and was in front. He was getting pressure from So Happy, but it was hard for him to keep the pace," explained Hernandez. “He gave me everything he had and was fighting all the way to the end—even when the horse came close to me, he was trying to come back and break. He's a great horse, and he ran a good second.”
On Monday, Potente worked 6 furlongs in 1:13.40 at Santa Anita and is on his way to Louisville.
“I was very happy with his work. He galloped out strong,” Baffert told drf.com. “He’s doing very well right now, looks healthy.”
If Potente steps up and gives Baffert a record-breaking seventh victory, don’t be surprised. Two of his Derby winners ran second in the Santa Anita Derby (Silver Charm, 1997, and Real Quiet, 1998) and third (Justify, 2018) won the Santa Anita Derby before capturing the Run for the Roses.
In addition, Potente is a son of Into Mischief, the top North American sire who also sired top Derby contenders Renegade and Commandment.
Potente has an Equibase rating of 112, tied for fifth best among Derby contenders, and earned a best Equibase speed figure of 96 in the Santa Anita Derby.
He’s likely to be forwardly placed in the Derby since he’s shown stalking ability as well as front-running style.
Of course, distance is the biggest question, but I don’t think it’s safe to exclude him from exotic wagers. Believe odds will go down from 16-1 on Derby future wager. Include in a Pick 6 wager.
Notes
- Potente has a win over So Happy, who was third in the San Felipe.
- Did not race as a 2-year-old; only two Derby winners did not race at 2 since 1940 – Justify in 2018 and Mage in 2023
- Baffert’s six Derby winners: Silver Charm (1997), Real Quiet (1998), War Emblem (2002), American Pharoah (2015), Justify (2018), and Authentic (2020)
- Juan Hernandez will be riding in his first Derby.
- Potente was purchased for $2.4 million by Peter Fluor and K.C. Weiner of Speedway Stables at the 2024 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Yearling Sale. They’ve teamed with Baffert for years, winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) with Corniche in 2021 as well as the 2017 Pacific Classic (G1) in 2017 with Collected before the colt ran second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1)
- Peter Fluor is CEO of Texas Crude Energy, a private, independent oil and gas exploration company.
Richard Rosenblatt is an award-winning journalist and former Associated Press Horse Racing Editor. Currently, he serves as the news editor at US Racing, overseeing exclusive content from contributors worldwide.
