A five-wide rally in the stretch by Commandment was just enough to nip The Puma by a nose in the Florida Derby (G1), a stellar performance that confirms he’s still No. 1 in the latest US Racing Kentucky Derby Top 10 Contenders.
The victory in the 1 1/8-mile, $1 million Florida Derby on Saturday follows the colt’s win in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2), both at Gulfstream Park.
Trained by Brad Cox, Commandment earned 100 Derby qualifying points and now sits atop the Derby leaderboard with 150 points.
“I’m proud of the horse. He’s a solid horse,” Cox said. “This is a good race, and it’s going to set him up for the Derby. Win or lose. I’m glad we came out on the right end.”
The Puma earned his Derby stripes, too, with a rousing dash to the front before Commandment caught him at the wire. Trained by Gustavo Delgado, The Puma picked up 50 Derby points for his effort and has 100 total points (fourth on the leaderboard) and moves into the Top 10 at No. 4.
Renegade, meanwhile, put on a dazzling display of speed, overtook closer Silent Tactic in the stretch, and rolled to a four-length victory in the $1.5 million Arkansas Derby (G1) on Saturday before a record crowd of more than 53,000.
Trained by Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher, Renegade earned 100 points for the win and moves to second on the Derby leaderboard (125 points) and up to No. 2 in our Derby Top 10.
In addition to The Puma, six-time Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert’s Potente enters again at No. 10. He may be the Hall of Famer’s last hope to make the Derby as he’s set to run in the $1 million Santa Anita Derby (G1) on April 4, a qualifier with 100-50-25-15-10 points to the top five finishers. With 50 points from his win in the San Felipe Stakes (G2), Potente would make the Derby field, but Baffert likely needs a solid effort in a final prep to move him forward.
Litmus Test, who finished fifth in the Arkansas Derby, is outside the top 20 on the leaderboard with 34 points; Baffert has a few longshot chances in Saturday’s final three big-point preps -- Cherokee Nation (3 points) is entered in the Santa Anita Derby, and Buetane (16 points) in the Wood Memorial (G2).
Dropping out of the Top 10 for the first time is Pletcher-trained Nearly, who was second last week but ran fifth in the Florida Derby and won’t have enough Derby points to make the field limited to 20 starters.
Also, out this week due to injury is Risen Star Stakes (G2) winner Paladin, trained by Chad Brown. The Gun Runner colt was No. 3 in last week’s Top 10 and was being pointed to the Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland on April 4. Brown’s top Derby contender is now Iron Horse, who is set to run in the Wood.
It’s all come down to the final weekend of Derby preps – the Blue Grass Stakes, Wood Memorial, and Santa Anita Derby all offer 100-50-25- (yes, the Lexington Stakes is April 10 but carries 20-10-6-4-2 points, allowing for a 3-year-old on the bubble one more slim chance to get into the field limited to 20 starters.
The Derby field is shaping up. At least 10 are definitely in based on 60 or more points (barring unforeseen issues). The cutoff in years past has been in the 40-42- point range, but as we know, anything can happen in horse racing.
The 10 definitives are Commandment (150), Renegade (125), Fulleffort (110), The Puma (100), Silent Tactic (100), Emerging Market (100), Pavlovian (70), Wonder Dean, Six Speed, and Danon Bourbon.
Wonder Dean and Six Speed, first and second in the UAE Derby (G2) over the weekend, earned automatic invites as the top two finishers on the Euro-Mideast Road to the Kentucky Derby series; Danon Bourbon won the Fukuryu Stakes over the weekend and earned an invitation as the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby series.
Derby contenders in the 50–60-point range, and likely to get into the field, include Incredibolt, Golden Tempo, each with 60; Stark Contrast and Chief Wallabee, each with 50; and Chip Honcho with 49.
Among Saturday’s Derby contenders needing a top 4 finish to gain entry to the Derby are Class President (50), Iron Honor (50), and Potente (50).
And, of course, any horse with zero or minimal points will clinch an automatic berth with a final prep victory.
By a nose, Commandment won Florida Derby and is a likely favorite for the Kentucky Derby ... He fought off a game The Puma at Gulfstream Park, and is Louisville bound off a sweep of the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby for a four-race win streak ... Owner: Wathnan Racing ... Purchased for $500,000 at 2024 Keeneland September Yearling Sale ... Breeding: Into Mischief-Sippican Harbor, by Orb ... Next start: Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs, May 2 ... No. 1 on Derby points leaderboard (150) ... Derby future wager odds (pool 5): 12-1
Beat a tough field in Arkansas Derby with blazing stretch run and soars up five spots this week ... If he can handle the extra quarter mile in the Derby distance the way he did in 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby, Pletcher may have his third Derby win, and Ortiz his first ... Won Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 7 ... In previous two starts, finished first in maiden race but DQ’d (Paladin was elevated to first) at Big A on Oct. 17 and ran second in Remsen ... Owners: Robert Low, Lawana Low, Repole Stable ... Pedigree: Into Mischief-Spice is Nice, by Curlin ... Purchased for $975,000 at Keeneland September Yearling Sale 2024 ... Next race: Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs, May 2 ... No. 2 on Derby points leaderboard (125). Derby future wage odds: 13-1
Back to New York for the Wood on Saturday after completing workouts in Palm Beach Downs following win in Rebel at Oaklawn ...With 50 points plus a top 5 finish, Uncle Mo colt is on to the Derby ... Owners: WinStar Farm, First Go Racing., CHC (China Horse Club) ... Pedigree: Uncle Mo-Top Quality, by Quality Road ... Next start: Wood Memorial, Aqueduct, April 4 ... No. 10 on Derby points leaderboard (50) ... Derby future wager odds: 28-1
This colt is no fluke – he took the lead in the Florida Derby and was edged a nose by Commandment. Superb effort gets him back in Top 10 with a serious chance to win ... His Tampa Bay Derby win on March 7 gave him first career victory ... Delgado, trainer/co-owner, Castellano and fellow co-owner Ramiro Restrepo won 2023 Derby with Mage ... Owners: OGMA Investments, JR Ranch, High Step Racing ... Pedigree: Essential Quality-Eve of War, by Declaration of War ... Purchased for $150,000 at the Ocala Breeders’ Spring Sale for 2-Year-Olds in Training ... Next start: Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs, May 2 ... No. 4 on Derby points leaderboard (106) ... Derby future wager odds: 23-1
A runner-up again, this time in the Arkansas Derby, but has a stellar prep record with three seconds (Smarty Jones, Rebel are the others) and a win in Southwest to keep him at No. 5. However, he may need to stay closer to the pace before unleashing his closing kick for a chance to win the Run for the Roses ... His 100 points put him in the field, though ... Owner: John Oxley ... Pedigree: Tacitus-Magical Sign, by Gun Runner ... Purchased for $500,000 at Ocala Breeders’ Spring Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training 2025 ... Next start: Kentucky Derby, May 2 ... No. 5 on Derby points leaderboard (100). Derby future wager odds: 17-1
His fourth-length win in Virginia Derby certainly doesn’t come close to Renegade’s four-length win in Florida Derby, but Virginia Derby has three wins from five starts for Mott, son of Bill Mott, the Hall of Fame trainer of 2025 Derby winner and Horse of the Year Sovereignty ... Owner: Pin Oak Stud ... Pedigree: Bolt d’Oro- Sapphire Spitfire, by Awesome Again ... Purchased for $75,000 at 2024 Keeneland September Yearling Sale ... Next start: Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs, May 2 ... No. 5 on Derby points leaderboard (60) ... Derby future wager odds: 16-1
Louisiana Derby narrow win over Pavlovian gives Brown a solid Derby contender (his leading contender Paladin is off the Derby trail with an injury) as he seeks a first win in the Run for the Roses ... He’s 2-for-2 and with 100 Derby points, his next race will be in Louisville on the first Saturday in May ... Owner: Klaravich Stables ... Pedigree: Candy Ride-Wild Empress, by Empire Maker ... Purchased for $185,000 at 2024 Keeneland September Yearling Sale ... Next race: Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs, May 2 ... No. 6 on Derby points leaderboard (100) ... Derby future wager odds: 33-1
Added another 25 Derby points with third-place finish in Florida Derby to move up to 50 points – and likely enough to make the field depending on what happens in Saturday’s three major preps ... Would give Mott a chance to win second straight Derby ... Owners: Michael Ball, Katherine Ball ... Pedigree: Constitution-A La Lucie, by Medaglia d’Oro ... Not sold at public auction ... Next race: Kentucky Derby, Churchill Downs, May 2 ... No. 12 on Derby points leaderboard (50) ... Derby future wager odds: 8-1
Baffert’s last hope to make the Derby might just be this $2.4 million colt, winner of the San Felipe and set to go one more time in the Santa Anita Derby ... A top 5 finish is a must for Potente to secure a spot in the Derby, but Baffert won’t send him to Churchill Downs without a solid showing on Saturday ... Owner: Speedway Stables ... Pedigree: Into Mischief-Sweet Sting, by Awesome Again ... Purchased for $2.4 million at 2024 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Yearling Sale ... Next start: Santa Anita Derby, Santa Anita, April 4 ... No. 14 on Derby points leaderboard (50). Derby future wager odds: 18-1
Brings 2-for-2 record, including Remsen win, into 13-horse field for Wood Memorial ... Owners: St. Elias Stable, William H. Lawrence and Glassman Racing ... Pedigree: Nyquist-Orencia, by Blame ... Purchased for $475,000 at Keeneland September Yearling Sale 2024 ... Next start: Wood Memorial, Aqueduct, April 4 ... No. 13 on Derby points leaderboard (50) ... Derby future wager odds: 41-1
Richard Rosenblatt is an award-winning journalist and former Associated Press Horse Racing Editor. Currently, he serves as the news editor at US Racing, overseeing exclusive content from contributors worldwide.
