With bettors gearing up for two days and 14 championship races worth $34 million in prize money, it might be helpful to look back at how it all played out last year where the ‘Turf Meets the Surf.’
Like 2024, there will be five 2-year-old Breeders’ Cup races on day 1 (Friday, Oct. 31) and nine BC races, including the $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), on day 2 (Saturday, Nov. 1).
How Did the 2024 Favorites Fare?
In 2024 at Del Mar, five of the 14 favorites won for a 35.7% strike rate, while two finished second and three finished third. That’s 10 of 14 favorites in the top 3 for an on-the-board strike rate of 71.4%.
That leads us to believe if you’re betting to beat the favorite, which most handicappers and casual bettors would like to do, it might be wise to include the top choice in any exotic wagers.
Opening day, or “Future Stars’’ Friday, saw Europeans follow tradition by winning the three turf races. American-based runners won the two dirt races. Another trend to know: Europeans fare quite well in turf races.
The next day, Euros won two of the four turf races, including Ireland-bred Rebel’s Romance in the $5 million Breeders' Cup Turf (G1), with American-based horses winning all five dirt races, including Sierra Leone’s victory in the $7 million Classic.
Longshots started off both days with victories. Day 1 saw Magnum Force win the BC Juvenile Sprint at 12-1 odds. Later, Citizen Bull, trained by Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, produced the upset of the day by winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) at 15-1 odds.
Day 2 started even better for longshot lovers – 19-1 Soul of an Angel won Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) at 19-1 odds and Starlust followed with a win at 33-1 odds in the BC Turf Sprint (G1).
$1 million Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1): Ireland-bred Magnum Force ($27), a 12-1 longshot, opened the 41st edition of the Breeders’ Cup with a late closing rush for a half-length victory over England-bred Arizona Blaze in the 5-furlong sprint. Colin Kean was the winning jockey for trainer Ger Lyons.
$2 million Juvenile Fillies (G1): Godolphin’s 2-1 favorite Immersive cruised ($6) to a 4 1/2-length win over Vodka with a Twist in the 1 1/16-mile race. Manny Franco was aboard for trainer Brad Cox.
$1 million Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1): Ireland-bred Lake Victoria ($3.40) delivered as the 7-10 favorite, winning by 1 ½ lengths over May Day Ready. Ryan Moore was aboard for trainer Aidan O’Brien.
$2 million Juvenile (G1): 15-1 longshot Citizen Bull ($33.80) led gate-to-wire and beat stablemate Gaming by 1 ½ lengths. Martin Garcia was aboard for the winner. Bob Baffert trains Citizen Bull and Gaming.
$1 million Juvenile Turf (G1): Back to the favorite as 7-2 Ireland-bred Henri Matisse ($9.80) started out 12th of 13, steadily passed 11 rivals with Ryan Moore aboard and won by a neck over Iron Man Cal. It was the 20th BC victory for trainer Aidan O’Brien (tied with D. Wayne Lukas for the most BC wins by a trainer).
$1 million Filly & Mare Sprint (G1): The opening of day 2 began with an upset as Soul of an Angel (19-1) was taken five-wide in the stretch and edged Society by a half-length at the wire to give trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr., his first Breeders’ Cup win. Soul of an Angel returned $41.60.
$1 million Turf Sprint (G1): Another European winner and another huge upset – the biggest of the 2024 Breeders’ Cup. England-bred Starlust ($69.20), dismissed at 33-1, rallied from seventh in the stretch, split horses and won by a neck to give jockey Rossa Ryan his first BC win. The 3-year-old is trained by Ralph Beckett.
$2 million Distaff (G1): Star filly Thorpedo Anna (2-5) ended the run of upsets in the following race with a dominating 2 ½-length victory under Brian Hernandez, Jr. For trainer Kenny McPeek. The win clinched Horse of the Year honors for Thorpedo Anna, who returned $2.80.
$5 million Turf (G1): The premier turf race of the Breeders’ Cup and Ireland-bred Rebel’s Romance ($5.80) came through when he hung on for a neck victory over Japan-bred Rousham Park. The 5-year-old gelding, trained by Charlie Appleby, became the first horse to win the Turf in non-consecutive years (2022, 2024). William Buick was aboard.
$7 million Classic (G1): The Classic wasn’t the final race of the day, and it won’t be this time, but it’s usually the best of the best. Sierra Leone (6-1) finally staged a long-awaited winning rally as the 3-year-old swept around the turn and overtook 5-2 favorite Fierceness and won by 1 ½ lengths. European star City of Troy, running on dirt for the first time, finished eighth. Sierra Leone ($15.80), trained by Chad Brown and ridden by Flavien Prat, is set to return for a chance to repeat.
$2 million Filly & Mare Turf (G1): Canada made its presence felt as Flavien Prat guided 5-year-old Canada-bred Moira to a half-length victory over England-bred favorite Cinderella’s Dream. It was trainer Kevin Attard’s first BC win.
$2 million Sprint (G1): Five-year-old Straight No Chaser ($14.20) outdueled 28-1 longshot Bentornato in the stretch for a half-length victory, giving trainer Dan Blacker his first BC win. Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez won his 21st BC race and upped his all-time BC earnings record to more than $39 million.
$2 million Mile (G1): A mile on the turf, and it was 4-year-old Kentucky bred More Than Looks ($15.80) surprising a slew of international stars by rallying from eighth to beat Johannes by three-quarters of a length. Jose Ortiz was aboard for trainer Cherie DeVaux, who captured her first BC race.
$1 million Dirt Mile (G1): Full Serrano ($28.80), an Argentina bred who spent the second half of 2024 racing in California for trainer John Sadler, capped the day with a 13-1 upset after taking control at the quarter pole under Joel Rosario and holding off Post Time by 1 ½ lengths.
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