The Grade 1, $500,000 Champagne Stakes at Aqueduct on October 4, 2025, is more than bragging rights. It’s a Win & You’re In for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and offers 10-5-3-2-1 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the top five.
This year’s field is compact (nine starters) with a mix of raw speed types and horses stretching out for the first time in graded company. With no dominant standout, there’s room for surprises.
Here are the 3 best bets to win the 2025 Champagne Stakes.
He’s the heavy favorite, and for once, that seems defensible. In his debut at Saratoga (6 1/2 furlongs) on August 16, he stalked the pace and then overwhelmed the field by 17 3/4 lengths. That kind of performance forces respect.
What makes him more than a maiden-blower is his versatility. He didn’t just win, he showed he can sit off the pace, stay composed, then take over. That suggests he may retain tactical options should the pace get sloppy or fast.
Distance and pedigree don’t seem to be an issue. A full mile on dirt for two-year-olds is well within the norm for a Champagne Stakes profile. He looks physically and mentally mature enough, based on that initial effort, to handle the leap into Grade 1. The risk is in overconfidence, a possible slow break, or getting pinned inside traffic from his post (he’s not guaranteed a perfect trip).
If he delivers something near his debut, It’s Our Time is hard to crown wrong. He’s the top pick, albeit with the caveat that heavy favorite status draws extra targets.
Talkin doesn’t have the flash debut like It’s Our Time, but he captures attention for a couple of reasons:
What’s against him? He’s less tested at graded levels. He may not have the raw speed of Stradale or the dominance of It’s Our Time. But in a race where the favorite is vulnerable to pace pressure or traffic, Talkin could take advantage if things break right.
If you want a “dark horse but believable” type, Talkin is it.
Some experts already think his odds are too generous.
Here’s why he intrigues:
Risks: Distance is borderline, and against a strong favorite, he may get overshadowed. Also, if the favorite runs well and the pace is slow, he may not get the punch he needs. But 12-1 is tempting for a horse with upside and experience.
This edition of the Champagne Stakes is dynamic, with no runaway favorite (though It’s Our Time is close). Expect pace pressure early, in a one-mile race, speed types like Stradale or Curtain Call could tug for dominance. That setup plays well into stalkers or late closers.
These three form a solid core for win bets, exactas, trifectas, or boxes. If you want to hedge, including Curtain Call or Stradale underneath may not be foolish. Place your bets, and may the rails be kind and the field cooperative.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
