The first weekend of October brings one of Santa Anita’s most important race cards of the fall. Four graded stakes headline Saturday’s program: the Chillingworth Stakes (G3), American Pharoah Stakes (G1), Rodeo Drive Stakes (G2), and Oak Leaf Stakes (G2). These races offer key prep opportunities for the Breeders’ Cup and plenty of betting appeal for fans across the country.
Below is a detailed analysis of each race, including post times in Eastern Time, contender tables, and expert picks.
Post Time: 4:30 PM ET (1:30 PM PT)
Distance: 6½ furlongs | Dirt | Fillies & Mares, 3-Year-Olds and Up
The Chillingworth opens the graded action with a compact but talented group. Tamara, trained by Richard Mandella, makes her long-awaited return after nearly a year off. Her recent workouts, including a sharp half-mile in 47 seconds, suggest she is ready.
Silent Law and Baela, both from Bob Baffert’s barn, look like the most serious threats, while Chismosa and Ang N Ash will try to pick up a minor share if the favorite fails to fire.
| Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baela | Bob Baffert | Kazushi Kimura | 4-1 |
| Silent Law | Bob Baffert | Juan J. Hernandez | 3-1 |
| Tamara | Richard E. Mandella | Mike E. Smith | 1-1 |
| Chismosa | Rafael DeLeon | Kyle Frey | 7-2 |
| Ang N Ash | Ryan Hanson | David Cohen | 10-1 |
Analysis and Pick:
Tamara has the class, the speed, and the right connections to make her comeback successful. Her recent work pattern shows she is fit and focused. Silent Law is consistent enough to keep her honest, but Tamara appears to have too much talent for this group.
Pick: Tamara
Post Time: 5:00 PM ET (2:00 PM PT)
Distance: 1 1/16 miles | Dirt | 2-Year-Olds
The American Pharoah Stakes is a crucial prep for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. The field features multiple Bob Baffert trainees led by Desert Gate, who was impressive breaking his maiden and now stretches to two turns. His tactical speed and improving maturity make him the one to beat.
Kristofferson appears to be the main rival, while Civil Liberty offers some value as a late-running type from Doug O’Neill’s barn.
| Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Desert Gate | Bob Baffert | Juan J. Hernandez | 3-2 |
| Intrepido | Jeff Mullins | Hector I. Berrios | 6-1 |
| Plutarch | Bob Baffert | Kazushi Kimura | 10-1 |
| Civil Liberty | Doug F. O’Neill | Antonio Fresu | 5-1 |
| Balboa | Bob Baffert | Umberto Rispoli | 8-1 |
| Kristofferson | Bob Baffert | Mike E. Smith | 9-5 |
Analysis and Pick:
Desert Gate owns the most natural early speed and has been training strongly at Santa Anita. Kristofferson can challenge if the pace gets heated, but Desert Gate looks like the most professional of the group.
Pick: Desert Gate
Post Time: 7:42 PM ET (4:42 PM PT)
Distance: 1¼ miles | Turf | Fillies & Mares, 3-Year-Olds and Up
The Rodeo Drive Stakes often reveals which turf mares are ready for the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf. This year’s edition is well-balanced with Amber Cascade entering as the favorite. She has been remarkably consistent for Michael Maker, finishing in the money in six straight starts.
Long Ago brings an excellent closing kick and is a serious win threat if the early fractions are fast. Alpha Bella and Mission of Joy are both proven at this distance and capable of running big.
| Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Watchtower | Richard Baltas | Mirco Demuro | 8-1 |
| Starry Heavens | Philip D’Amato | Antonio Fresu | 10-1 |
| Speed Shopper | William Walden | Kazushi Kimura | 15-1 |
| Long Ago | William E. Morey | Mike E. Smith | 3-1 |
| Mission of Joy | Philip D’Amato | Umberto Rispoli | 6-1 |
| Hang the Moon | Philip D’Amato | Armando Ayuso | 8-1 |
| Amber Cascade | Michael J. Maker | Juan J. Hernandez | 5-2 |
| Alpha Bella | John W. Sadler | Hector I. Berrios | 4-1 |
Analysis and Pick:
Amber Cascade’s tactical speed gives her the advantage on firm turf. Long Ago will be dangerous if she gets a clean trip, but Amber Cascade should sit just behind the leaders and strike at the right time.
Pick: Amber Cascade
Post Time: 8:00 PM ET (5:00 PM PT)
Distance: 1 1/16 miles | Dirt | 2-Year-Old Fillies
The Oak Leaf Stakes showcases developing juvenile fillies, and Explora headlines the field as a standout favorite for Bob Baffert. She has dominated her two starts and continues to post fast, steady workouts. Juan Hernandez stays aboard, and her tactical speed will make her tough to catch.
Stablemate Himika should keep her company early, while La Wally profiles as the most logical closer for a piece.
| Horse | Trainer | Jockey | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Banzai Betty | George Papaprodromou | Umberto Rispoli | 10-1 |
| La Ville Lumiere | Michael W. McCarthy | Kazushi Kimura | 12-1 |
| La Wally | Mark Glatt | Antonio Fresu | 4-1 |
| Himika | Bob Baffert | Mike E. Smith | 3-1 |
| Heaven’s Bolt | Richard Baltas | Hector I. Berrios | 5-1 |
| Explora | Bob Baffert | Juan J. Hernandez | 4-5 |
Analysis and Pick:
Explora’s natural speed and professionalism set her apart. Himika is the most likely to chase her early, but Explora should control the pace and draw off turning for home. La Wally has enough consistency to complete the trifecta.
Pick: Explora
Saturday’s Santa Anita card delivers top-class racing and several Breeders’ Cup implications. Tamara’s comeback, Desert Gate’s test of stamina, Amber Cascade’s turf consistency, and Explora’s rising star potential make this one of the most exciting betting days of the fall season.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
