Alfred G. Vanderbilt Stakes Preview, Odds and Picks
The Monmouth Park-based duo of trainer Derek Ryan and jockey Paco Lopez return to Saratoga once again with Book’em Danno for the $400,000 Alfred G. Vanderbilt (G2) on Saturday.
Nakatomi. NYRA Photo.
They arrive with the horse to beat in the 6-furlong contest for older sprinters. The New Jersey-bred 4-year-old already sports an impressive Saratoga resume with stakes victories here in the Woody Stephens (G1) last summer and in the True North (G3), part of last month’s Belmont Stakes (G1) racing festival.
If there is a knock -- and handicappers are always on the lookout for a vulnerability -- it centers on the fact Book'em Danno’s best distance is 7 furlongs. This might be a tad short of the mark, a fact that Ryan concedes.
“This is a little short for him, but he’s doing good, and Paco knows him now,” Ryan said. “He’ll keep him close and hopefully he’ll be able to get the job done again.”
Lopez will be aboard for the fourth straight time.
In contrast, this 6-furlong race fits Nakatomi like a velvet glove. He has earned over $1.3 million in 13 career races at the distance. That includes a victory in last year’s edition of the Vanderbilt.
Nakatomi failed to fire last time out in the True North at 6 1/2 furlongs, finishing fifth behind Book ‘em Danno over the sloppy track.
The race was a complete disaster. Nakatomi, the 2-1 favorite, was fractious in the gate for his U.S. return, tossed his head at the break, and got away last in a throw-away effort.
It was a disappointing showing as the follow-up to a heartbreaking loss by a neck, the $2 million Golden Shaheen in Dubai.
A dry track (a rarity so far at the Spa), the shorter distance, and a cleaner start could set up Nakatomi for a rebound effort.
We’ll take the value swing with Nakatomi at what should be longer odds than Book ‘em Danno will likely offer and hedge the bet by boxing those two in the exacta.
Looking to fill out your trifecta? Mullikin looks like the way to play. He was dead game in the True North, taking the lead on the turn and grudgingly defending it until Book ‘em Danno collared him in the very late stages.
The Picks: 1 Nakatomi, 2 Book ‘em Danno, 3 Mullikin
The field for the $400,000 Alfred G. Vanderbilt (G2), from the rail out, with jockey, trainer, odds:
Skelly (Ricardo Santana, Jr., Steve Asmussen), 4-1
Full Moon Madness (Kendrick Carmouche, Michele Nevin), 15-1
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