Saratoga Race Course was first dubbed the "Graveyard of Favorites" almost a century ago, probably after Jim Dandy surprised 1930 Triple Crown winner Gallant Fox at 100-1.
And while there have been many memorable upsets since then - think Secretariat losing the 1973 Whitney Stakes to Onion, or American Pharoah suffering his only defeat to Keen Ice in the 2015 Travers Stakes - the reality is, favorites do win about one-third of the races at the Spa. Last year, in fact, favorites won 34.1% of the summer meet's 412 races, which is close to the national average.
This year's meet begins on Thursday, July 10, bringing together the top horses, jockeys, and trainers from around the country for 40 days of world-class racing (think 64 stakes, 18 of them Grade 1s, worth $20 million plus) and countless opportunities to get a solid ROI on your wagers.
Part of the reason for that is that in addition to the races, Saratoga is a generally a great place to be in the summer and draws loads of tourists and noobs who will bet on almost anything, examples being their favorite color, a horse's name, the silks, lucky numbers, some familiarity with a trainer/owner/jockey, the gray horse, and so on.
The abundance of turf races and the high quality of the horses overall add up to many formful races, which is in turn multiplied by the best jockey colony anywhere (see previous paragraph, e.g., show me the money) and many of the nation's leading trainers.
In 2024, Chad Brown obliterated the opposition by winning 45 races, including 15 stakes wins. Todd Pletcher and Mike Maker were tied for second with 22 each. As for the jockeys, Irad Ortiz, Jr., won his sixth riding title since 2015, meaning that he and his brother, Jose, have won nine of the past 10 riding titles. (Luis Saez crashed the party in 2021).
More to the point, it was No. 2 Flavien Prat who won a record 14 graded stakes during the meet, many aboard Brown's horses, including four Grade 1 wins aboard Whitebeam, Domestic Product, Raging Sea, and Ways and Means. Up-and-coming young jockey Dylan Davis and veteran Tyler Gaffalione were tied for third in wins with 36, and close behind them was Manny Franco with 29.
Whitebeam will not defend her title in this year's Diana, the first Grade 1 of the meet on July 12, but Prat will be aboard Excellent Truth, and Davis will ride Dynamic Pricing for Brown as they team up to upend favorite She Feels Pretty.
The graded stakes don’t seem to stop during the meet, so we’ll run down the biggest weekends.
Following the opening weekend, week 2 is highlighted by the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) for 3-year-old fillies on July 19 (Acorn Stakes winner La Cara and BC Juvenile Fillies winner Immersive, who is 4-for-5, are probables).
Week 3 features the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) for 3-year-olds – and it looks like a strong one with Kentucky Derby (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1) Sovereignty taking on the likes of Gosger and Sandman, second and third in the Preakness Stakes (G1), and Baeza, third in the Derby and the Belmont. The Jim Dandy is July 26.
The Whitney Stakes (G1) for older horses takes center stage on Aug. 2 –a day featuring six graded stakes races, four of them Grade 1s, and two Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In’’ events.
The Whitney is likely to feature White Abarrio and Skippylongstocking from the barn of Saffie Joseph, Jr., as well as last year's Travers winner, Fierceness, and possibly Stephen Foster Stakes (G1) winner Mindframe from Todd Pletcher. A BC Classic winner from Sierra Leone is also possible.
The winners of the Whitney and the Fourstardave, also on Aug. 2, are among nine BC “Win and You’re In’’ races at the Spa.
The best of the best could show up on Travers Day – Aug. 23 – a betting bonanza headlined by the $1.25 million Travers Stakes (G1), with an undercard of four additional Grade 1s – the H. Allen Jerkens, the Ballerina, the Forego, and the Personal Ensign (look for Horse of the Year Thorpedo Anna to top the field.)
The ¼-mile Travers could turn out to be the race of the summer – if not the year - with a possible lineup of Sovereignty, Preakness winner Journalism, Baeza, Sandman, and Magnitude, back from an injury and recent winner of the Iowa Derby.
The final week, Labor Day Weekend, is highlighted by three BC “Win and You’re In’’ races – the Spinaway (G1) for 2-year-old fillies and the Flower Bowl (G2) for turf fillies and mares 4 years old and up, both on Aug. 30, and the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) for 3-year-olds and up on Aug. 31.
The Hopeful Stakes (G1), for 2-year-olds, tops the final card on Sept. 1.
For those who bet horse racing, the recent Fourth of July Racing Festival at Saratoga Race Course (July 3-6) evidenced trends that have emerged over the past few years during the real Saratoga, primarily: speed holds up both on the main and both turf course sprints, avoid the outside posts on the inner turf, don't overlook longshot closers on the main turf course, and the rail usually is not the summer place to be.
Of the 44 races run during the four-day festival, 18 were won in wire-to-wire style, 17 by horses coming from less than three lengths off the pace, and nine by closers. Only four horses won from the rail, with 24 coming from posts 3-6, and eight from posts 7 out.
Double-digit payouts for $2 win bets were relatively uncommon; the highest was $28.40 for Dangherecomesshang in race 7 on closing day. Oh, and 25 of the 44 races went to horses at 3-1 or less, 10 of them favorites.
Best of luck.
