Favorites in the Kentucky Derby seem to do well. Since 1908 and the advent of pari-mutuel wagering, favorites have won 39 times for roughly a 35 percent strike rate. In the years before pari-mutuel wagering between 1875 and 1907, sentimental favorites won 16 times for a near 50 percent win rate.
The shortest-priced favorite in Kentucky Derby history was Bimelech, who finished second at 2-5 in 1940. Count Fleet (1943) and Citation (1948), who were coupled with stablemate Coaltown, were also 2-5 when they won the first jewel under the Twin Spires. Seattle Slew was 1-2 in 1977, as was Johnstown in 1939 and Spectacular Bid in 1978.
The longest-priced favorite title in Derby history belongs to Lookin at Lucky, who was sixth at the Kentucky Derby betting odds of 6.30-1 in 2010. Harlan’s Holiday was 6-1 in 2002, and Sweetsouthernsaint was 5.50-1 in 2006. In 2013, Orb was the longest-priced favorite to win when he left the gate at odds of 5.40-1. Other longer favorites to win are Street Sense, who was 4.90-1 in 2007, and Always Dreaming, who was 4.70-1 in 2017.
In the re-arranged Covid-19 Triple Crown in 2020, Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Tiz The Law left the gate at .70-1 (3-5) and finished second to Authentic. Essential Quality was the near 3-1 favorite in 2021 and was third, while Epicenter was the 4-1 lukewarm favorite in 2022 before finishing second to longshot Rich Strike.
Angel of Empire was a 4-1 favorite in 2023 and was third behind longshot Mage, while Fierceness was a 3.20-1 favorite and well-beaten behind 18-1 chance Mystik Dan.
The writing team at US Racing is comprised of both full-time and part-time contributors with expertise in various aspects of the Sport of Kings.
