For those who bet on horse racing, it is well known that Saratoga Race Course is also called the “Graveyard of Favorites’’ as well as the “Graveyard of Champions.”
Either is appropriate, as some of racing’s biggest upsets have taken place at the iconic upstate New York racetrack. A few examples: Upset (of course!) over the great Man o’War in the 1919 Sanford Stakes; Jim Dandy Stakes (100-1) over 1930 Triple Crown winner Gallant Fox in the Travers Stakes; Onion over 1973 Triple Crown winner Secretariat in the 1973 Whitney Stakes; and Keen Ice (16-1) over 2015 Triple Crown winner American Pharoah (3-5) in the Travers.
In less than two weeks, Sovereignty, the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1) winner, will likely be the favorite in the 156th edition of the 1 ¼-mile Travers – the signature race the summer season aka the ‘Midsummer Derby.’
The field should be a strong one – Preakness Stakes (G1) and Haskell Stakes (G1) winner Journalism (second in the Derby and Belmont) remains possible, as does Baeza (third in the Derby and Belmont) and Magnitude, back in winning form after being sidelined for the Triple Crown following a blowout victory in the Risen Star Stakes (G2). Plus, a bunch of longshots.
But is there a shocker in the cards? Like Adonis in 1945, who won and returned a modern era record $53.20 on a $2 win bet?
According to the New York Racing Association, the betting favorite has won 52 of the last 119 Travers – or 43.7% of the time. History says betting favorites win races at a 30-38% clip, finish first or second at a 62% rate, and finish in the top 3 74% of the time.
For handicappers, it’s all about past performances, but history should be considered before placing your wagers.
So, let’s start here: The Travers betting favorite has won three of the past five years.
Beginning in 2000, the favorite has won nine of 25 Travers (a win rate of 36%, less than the overall average of 43.7% over the past 119 editions.
How the Travers favorites fared from 2000-2024, with odds, finish, and winner in parentheses as warranted:
| 2000 | Dixie Union, 2.55-1 | 4th (Unshaded) |
| 2001 | Point Given, .65-1 | WON |
| 2002 | Medaglia d’Oro, .75-1 | WON |
| 2003 | Peace Rules, 2.30-1 | 2nd (Ten Most Wanted) |
| 2004 | Lion Heart, 2.60-1 | 7th (Birdstone) |
| 2005 | Roman Ruler, 2.15-1 | 3rd (Flower Alley) |
| 2006 | Bernardini, .35-1 | WON |
| 2007 | Street Sense, .35-1 | WON |
| 2008 | Pyro, 3.75-1 | 3rd (Colonel John) |
| 2009 | Quality Road, 3-2 | 3rd (Summer Bird) |
| 2010 | Trappe Shot, 3.90-1 | 9th (Afleet Express) |
| 2011 | Stay Thirsty, 2.40-1 | WON |
| 2012 | Alpha, 2-1 | WON (DH with Golden Ticket, 33-1 |
| 2013 | Verrazano, 1.60 | 7th (Will Take Charge) |
| 2014 | Bayern, 2.45 | 10th (V.E. Day) |
| 2015 | American Pharoah, .35-1 | 2nd (Keen Ice) |
| 2016 | Exaggerator, 2.55 | 11th (Arrogate) |
| 2017 | Good Samaritan, 3.85 | 5th (West Coast) |
| 2018 | Good Magic, 1.45 | 9th (Catholic Boy) |
| 2019 | Tacitus, 2.40-1 | 2nd (Code of Honor) |
| 2020 | Tiz the Law, .50-1 | WON |
| 2021 | Essential Quality, .45-1 | WON |
| 2022 | Epicenter, 1-1 | WON |
| 2023 | Forte, 1.75-1 | 4th (Arcangelo) |
| 2024 | Sierra Leone, 1.75-1 | 3rd (Fierceness) |
Richard Rosenblatt is an award-winning journalist and former Associated Press Horse Racing Editor. Currently, he serves as the news editor at US Racing, overseeing exclusive content from contributors worldwide.
