In a field of five, four of them – Sovereignty, White Abarrio, Magnitude and Baeza -- are Grade 1 winners. Saturday’s Stephen Foster Stakes (G1) at Churchill Downs feels like a mini-Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) in June.
Sovereignty, the reigning Horse of the Year, swept the Kentucky Derby, Belmont Stakes and Travers Stakes. White Abarrio, the seemingly ageless 7-year-old who beat him in Arkansas two months ago, has trophies from the Breeders' Cup Classic, Pegasus World Cup, Whitney Stakes and Florida Derby. Magnitude led throughout the $12 million Dubai World Cup in March to upset all-time great Forever Young. Baeza outran Magnitude in last year’s Pennsylvania Derby.
It’s most unlikely that we’ll see a race with this much talent and depth until Halloween, when Keeneland will stage the 43rd edition of the Classic. Churchill doubled the purse to $2 million to lure superstars to what’s billed as the “Summer Showdown.” Mission accomplished.
The 45th running of the 1 1/8-mile stakes for 4-year-olds and up is part of the Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” series and awards the winner a spot in the Classic. NBCSN and Peacock will televise it, with post time at 6:14 p.m. ET.
How strong is this field? Willy D’s has won back-to-back stakes, and he’s in way over his head. He’s cheap speed against four heavyweights. Luis Saez is listed to ride, but don’t be surprised if John Velazquez gets the call after his mount, Forged Steel, will be scratched.
This streaky white tornado capitalized on a speed duel between Sovereignty and Journalism to take the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) by two lengths in mid-April. Don’t expect him to get that perfect setup here, but if he’s on his “A” game, he might not need it. Negatives: He lost four in a row before the Oaklawn victory, and he’s 0-for-2 at Churchill, so don’t be overconfident if you like him.
Battling up front with Journalism wore down Sovereignty at Oaklawn in his first race since the Travers in August. White Abarrio blew past those two in midstretch after getting a perfect trip under the brilliant Irad Ortiz, Jr. Sovereignty should move forward off his first competition in almost eight months, and he’s 2-for-2 at Churchill.
Possible pace scenario: Willy D’s goes for the lead from the rail, but Magnitude outruns him to the turn. White Abarrio tracks from about a length away, with Sovereignty a close third. Expect Junior Alvarado to creep up gradually on the stretch turn, then ask Sovereignty for the powerful finish we saw in the Derby, Belmont and Travers.
Will it still be there? Is he the same horse he was at 3? Contrarians will wonder whether he’s lost some of his mojo. We’ll find out.
Mott took over this 2-for-10 underachiever after the death of John Shirreffs in February. He was a troubled-trip third in his 2026 debut in the Alysheba Stakes (G2) on Derby Eve. He’s 1-for-5 in Grade 1s, defeating Magnitude by 2¼ lengths in the Pennsylvania Derby. By beating Classic hero Forever Young in Dubai, Magnitude moved far beyond Baeza, who’s come up short against every other top-class horse he’s faced.
He came into his own after running second in the Pennsylvania Derby, where he went off at 10-1. He’s won three stakes since then – the Clark (G2), Razorback (G3) and Dubai World Cup (G1), in which he led all the way. Chances are he’ll try to go wire to wire, looks like the best strategy here. Plus: Two wins at Churchill, one at 1 1/8 miles. Peaking and dangerous.
Ed McNamara is an award-winning racing writer who has covered the sport since 1981 for The Bergen (N.J.) Record, Newsday, ESPN, Thorocap, and USRacing. He is the author of Cajun Racing: From the Bush Tracks to the Triple Crown and Racing Around the World, and a contributor to The Most Glorious Crown and The Racetracks of America. He has also written for racing publications in France and Italy.
